Chargers vs Dolphins Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +143 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
We've suffered through plenty of boring primetime NFL games this season, but that likely won't be the case as we look for a Chargers vs Dolphins pick.
Coming into Week 14, Miami — which stayed out West for its second straight road game — held the sixth seed in the AFC playoff picture. A win would increase its postseason probability to above 90%, but a loss could put those plans in jeopardy with a very difficult remaining schedule.
While the 8-4 Dolphins' postseason chances look rosy, the same can't be said for the 6-6 Chargers, who are currently on the outside looking in. Coming into this week, they sat in the ninth seed, tied with the Patriots in record and one game behind the Jets, who held the final playoff spot.
Sunday night isn't a must-win for Los Angeles, but a loss would drop its postseason probability to below 20%, while I'd make it a favorite to get in with a victory.
There's certainly plenty at stake in addition to the quarterback narrative battle between the fifth and sixth overall picks in the 2020 NFL draft.
This matchup has everything you'd want in a December NFL prime-time game, but where does the betting value lie? Let's take a closer look.
Chargers vs Dolphins Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chargers and Dolphins match up statistically:
Chargers vs Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 23 | |
| Pass DVOA | 1 | 16 | |
| Rush DVOA | 14 | 30 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 25 | 17 | |
| Pass DVOA | 24 | 23 | |
| Rush DVOA | 29 | 9 | |
It's hard to see either defense getting many stops.
The Dolphins have suffered a number of key injuries in their secondary, which make them very vulnerable through the air. They have particularly struggled to defend short passes, which could spell doom against Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen.
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Star center Corey Linsley cleared concussion protocol, which will provide a massive boost to an offensive line that crumbles without him. Additionally, Mike Williams practiced in full on Friday. He can be the deep threat this offense has sorely missed with him sidelined.
If Justin Herbert lights up the scoreboard, Tua should have no issues matching him score for score — unless his accuracy just goes completely off the rails like last week.
The Chargers defense has also dealt with a plethora of injuries at every level. Their defensive line is now down to backups of backups with Sebastian Joseph-Day looking doubtful to suit up. Star pass rusher Joey Bosa remains on IR, and now the secondary has suffered a couple of key injuries.
The pass defense remained stout even after the loss of JC Jackson, who struggled early on when healthy. However, the Chargers will now likely have to make do without stud safety Derwin James and slot cornerback Bryce Callahan, who will both be sorely missed against the explosive Miami receivers who can now exploit these new gaps on the back end.
Betting Picks
This has all of the makings of a barnburner that gets decided by which team has the ball last. As a result, I like the home dog catching over a field and would only play the over or pass if you're looking to bet the total.
I think the Dolphins come into this game a bit overvalued even after their loss last week. Tua has fantastic numbers, but he had a recent stretch of facing four of the worst defenses before flopping against the Niners.
Fortunately for Tua, the Chargers field another poor defense when you account for all of their injuries. As long as he can bounce back mentally, he should have wide-open receivers to throw to all night in Mike McDaniels' wonderfully schemed offense.
Miami also shouldn't have any issues running the ball when needed as well.
On the flip side, with a healthy receiver group and Linsley slated to play, Herbert shouldn't have any issues ripping apart this Miami secondary that has routinely given up 30 points to any competent offense with a starting quarterback over the past two seasons.
At times, I loathe the play-calling of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who doesn't take advantage of Herbert's downfield passing ability enough, in my opinion. However, short passing attacks can absolutely shred this Dolphins defense.
Lastly, the Chargers usually have a disastrous special teams unit, but they grade out slightly above average in that department this season. It's actually the Dolphins who grade out as the worst special teams unit in the league in 2022.
I show a bit of value on Chargers +3, and I especially like them at +3.5 in a game where I will happily go to battle with Herbert as an underdog against an overrated defense.
This should be a fun one.
Pick: Chargers +3.5 (Play to +3) |
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