The Miami Dolphins (2-6) and Los Angeles Rams (4-4) will close NFL Week 10 tonight on Monday Night Football from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will be live on ESPN (8:15 p.m. ET kickoff) and can be streamed on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
The Rams are 2.5-point favorites against the Dolphins (Rams -2.5) with the over/under at 48.5 points. The Rams are a consensus -145 on the moneyline, while the Dolphins are +120. Los Angeles has won three straight and can go over .500 with a win tonight. Miami has lost three straight, with their last two losses coming by a combined four points. The public is slightly favoring the Rams against the spread, with 60% of the bets and 58% of the money on them to cover. The over is also getting 63% of bets and 62% of the money tonight.
Let's get to our Dolphins vs. Rams prediction and Monday Night Football picks.
Dolphins vs. Rams Predictions, Picks
Dolphins vs. Rams Odds, Spread, Over/Under
NFL odds via bet365.
Dolphins vs. Rams Spread: Rams -2 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Rams Over/Under: 49.5 (-110 / -110)
Dolphins vs. Rams Moneyline: Rams -130 / Dolphins +110
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We have a bet for every market tonight. Our staff has bets on the Rams, the over and a Kyren Williams player prop that's backing the L.A. RB1 for a big workload on Monday Night Football.
Matthew Stafford's passer rating this season is 102.2 when both Puka Nacau and Cooper Kupp are on the field. This should come as no surprise considering the Rams had the best offense in the NFL in 2023 according to several metrics when their top two receiving targets and Kyren Williams were all available and in the lineup. This offense is just now rounding into form and undoubtedly has a chance to bring Los Angeles back into the thick of the playoff race in the NFC.
Stafford should be quite comfortable in the pocket against a Dolphins pass rush that ranks 28th in adjusted sack rate. Miami's defense has surrendered an average of 26.8 points per game this season if you take away its performances versus two backup quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson and Jacoby Brissett.
Just to bolster your confidence in the Rams offense even further, Miami also ranks outside the top 20 in yards per carry allowed and rush success rate against. I just don't see them stopping the ascending Rams offense very often.
The Rams defense has been much maligned. Their mix of young players and unfortunate injuries had them ranked last in the league in EPA/play (0.165) allowed over the first five weeks of the season. But since their Week 6 bye, that number has flipped, as they have generated a negative EPA/play defensively (-0.183), ranking them second best league-wide since Week 7.
Back the Rams to move to 5-4 up to -2.5; and if Tyreek Hill is ruled out before the game, I am comfortable playing L.A. up to -3.
Pick: Rams -2
By Billy Ward
This game features two bottom-10 defenses by DVOA and two offenses finally getting healthy.
After failing to top 20 points all season, Miami has put up 27 points in back-to-back weeks with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. Those games were against the roughly average defenses of the Bills and Cardinals, with the Rams serving as a much softer matchup.
On the Rams side, they finally have their full complement of weapons with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and Kyren Williams all fully healthy and off the injury report in Week 10. They've averaged 28 points per game in the two weeks with both top receivers back, despite playing the elite Vikings defense and a solid Seahawks unit.
I’m also projecting this is an above-average matchup for both offensive lines. The only weak point is the Dolphins' pass protection, but their poor adjusted sack rate is mostly a function of the poor play of Tyler Huntley and Skyler Thompson in relief of Tagovailoa.
Even adjusting down slightly for this being a primetime game, this one should clear 50 points more often than not. We’re taking a bit of a risk that Hill doesn’t suit up, but the Dolphins still have weapons without him and the line is creeping up. I’d rather roll the dice on a lower number rather than wait for news on his status.
Pick: Over 48.5 (-115)
By Billy Ward
Since getting Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back in the lineup, the Rams have significantly limited Kyren Williams' involvement in the passing game. Through the first four games of the Rams season, Williams averaged 3.5 targets and 18.25 rushing attempts per game.
Over the next four games, Williams has just one game with multiple receptions, but he has at least 21 carries in every game.
That should continue this week, as the Rams host the Dolphins as slight favorites in Week 10. We have him projected for a relatively conservative 20.5 rushing attempts, right in line with most of the market.
However, FanDuel's 19.5 line gives us a decent edge, even at a -128 price. I'd take that line down to -135 but would need even money or better to take the over on 20.5.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-128)
