The Miami Dolphins (1-3) and New England Patriots (1-3) will kick off the Sunday afternoon slate of NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 1. p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on FOX, and the game can be streamed on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
The Dolphins are consensus 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots (Dolphins -1.5) after the spread opened at Dolphins -4.5 before the season. The over/under is 36.5 after opening at 45. The Dolphins are -125 favorites to win outright, with the Patriots are +105 to pull off the upset.
The Dolphins lost 31-13 to the Titans last week on Monday. Tyler Huntley threw for only 96 yards in his first Dolphins start. The Patriots lost 30-13 to the 49ers. Jacoby Brissett has underwhelmed this season with just 2 touchdown passes in 4 games while averaging 134 passing yards per game.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions and my NFL picks for Week 5.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks, Prediction
Spread
I'm passing on betting either side of the spread in this game.
Moneyline
Likewise, I'm not betting on either team to win.
Over/Under
My bet is on the under in a matchup of talented defenses and sputtering offenses.
My Pick: Under 36.5
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Point Spread, Total, Lines
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 / -110 | -125 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 36.5 -110 / -110 | +105 |
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Spread: Dolphins -1.5
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Over/Under: 36.5 points
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Moneyline: Dolphins -125, Patriots +105
- Dolphins vs. Patriots Best Bet: Under 36.5
- 68% of bets and 71% of the money are on the Patriots to cover the spread.
- 83% of bets and 68% of the money are on the over.
- 56% of bets and 64% of the money on the moneyline are on the Patriots.
My Patriots vs. Dolphins best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL Week 5
I love an ugly, nasty under, so here we are.
Last week, I was on the under for the Dolphins’ loss to the Titans, which was a 22-6 game with four minutes left. That was an under all the way and the right play.
The Dolphins are averaging just 11.3 points per game this season, including just 8.3 outside of the only full game that Tua Tagovailoa played back in Week 1. Since then, Miami has scored 10, three and 12 points.
Since Tagovailoa got hurt, the Dolphins have had 28 drives. Those drives have resulted in nine turnovers and just one touchdown, which came in the final minutes of that game last Monday night.
Games that Tyler Huntley has started in the NFL average just 32.9 points between both teams and are 8-2 to the under.
The Patriots this season are averaging just 13 points per game this season, which means neither team in this game has scored more than 20 points this year. Both teams have talented defenses, but their offenses are in the bottom six in both Pass and Rush DVOAs.
Totals that are 38 or lower that drop 4.5 or more points from open (this one was 45) are 63% to the under. Totals of 37 or lower since November 2019 are 37-13-1 (74%) to the under, including 3-1 this year.
Pick: Under 36.5
How to Watch NFL Week 5: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Gillette Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Patriots vs. Dolphins is scheduled for a 1 p.m. ET start time, live from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday, Oct. 6. The game is broadcasted live by FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
