Unders cashed at a historic rate last week — a trend that has persisted this entire season.
Michael Thomas made sure things would be different heading into Week 7.
The Saints star made a leaping 17-yard touchdown grab midway through the fourth quarter that’s in the running for catch of the year. Thomas snared a ball from Derek Carr over a defender draped all over him and managed to get his knee down with just centimeters of space to spare. It was his first touchdown since Week 2 of the 2022 campaign.
When you need him most, Michael Thomas.
📺 @nflonprimepic.twitter.com/c3J97IIXu4
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 20, 2023
Unfortunately, his catch crushed a public that backed the under in a major way. Over 73% of bets and 82% of the money was on the under of 41.5, which went down the second Thomas managed to sneak his knee inbounds.
The under went 12-2-1 in Week 6 — the best week for the bet type in 27 years. Unders are 56-36-1 (61%) so far this season, the highest rate through six weeks since 1991.
You can’t blame the public for loving the under considering New Orleans’ recent history. They entered the game as the only team where the under hit in every single week. It continued a trend dating back to last year as it cashed in 12 straight games, which is the longest streak in the Wild Card Era.
The public was also banking on a nerfed Jacksonville offense on account of Trevor Lawrence's knee ailments, which left him questionable for Thursday's contest. Lawrence looked fine — even ripping off a few long runs with limited mobility issues — in a 31-point showing against a defense ranked No. 5 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).
The over is now 4-3 on Thursday Night Football this year, and next week’s match features the Buffalo Bills who average the third-most points per game (28.8), who host the light-scoring Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18.0).
