Super Bowl 55 brings with it a whole host of player prop opportunities, which I plan to exploit with full enthusiasm as we approach kickoff.
To leverage our projections and sort through all the player props available at different sportsbooks, use our new Props Tool at Action Labs.
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Here’s my breakdown of Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans and the props of his that I plan to bet.
Mike Evans Prop Bets
Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus today.
Under 63.5 Yards Receiving
Evans is great. That's undeniable. This year, Evans became the first player in NFL history to open his career with seven 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
When the NFL Hall of Fame is tweeting about a guy, he’s probably pretty good.
The HOF is tweeting about Mike Evans 👀 https://t.co/S9E1wIDYMW
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) January 3, 2021
But as I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, his matchup is tough.
The Chiefs don't have any truly dominant corners, but in the regular season they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that's a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs' pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that's not good for Evans.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12: Evans scored two touchdowns on nine targets and quarterback Tom Brady passed for 345 yards — yet Evans had just 50 yards on three receptions.
How is it possible for Brady to pass for so many yards and for Evans to get so few of them?
Tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate combined for 140 yards, and running backs Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined for 47 yards.
Even if Brady goes off — and there's no guarantee that he will — it's far from a certainty that his production will flow to Evans: The Chiefs' pass defense is constructed to prevent exactly that.
At right corner, Bashaud Breeland will likely match up most with Evans, and this year Breeland has allowed just 6.5 yards per target with a 58.8% catch rate.
Breeland has also allowed five touchdowns this year and can be beaten deep on occasion, but he is a physical corner who won’t be afraid to mix it up with Evans.
Against Breeland specifically in Week 12, Evans had just seven yards on five targets.
As great as Evans is, he has gone over 63.5 yards receiving in just 7-of-19 games.
- Action: Under 63.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: Over 59.5 (-110)
Under 4.5 Receptions
This number isn't massively off, but I think it's a little high. I have Evans projected for 4.1 receptions.
This year, he has averaged 4.2 receptions across 19 games with a median of 4.0, and against the Chiefs in Week 12 he had just three receptions despite seeing nine targets.
As I've said already, the matchup is tough: In the regular season, the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions.
With his size and skill, Evans can bully his way to five-plus receptions in any given game, but because of the Chiefs' pass defense, I think the under is likely.
- Action: Under 4.5 (-120) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 4.5 (-130)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
