Miles Sanders Rushing Yards
| Prop | Miles Sanders Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110) |
| Matchup | 49ers vs. Eagles |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | FanDuel |
The NFL Conference Championships kick off in Philadelphia with the 49ers and Eagles battling to be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
This game features two elite defenses. Per Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric (regular season and playoffs), the 49ers rank first and the Eagles fifth. I expect a battle in the trenches, and I am looking to fade Miles Sanders.
Sanders is averaging 75.5 rushing yards per game this season. He has exceeded 52 yards in 13 of 18 contests (72%) and has a yards per carry of 4.9, but a lot of that success has to do with his schedule.
In his last 19 games, the Penn State product has only faced five teams that rank within the top 10 in defensive rush DVOA. Sanders’ efficiency took a hit in these meetings:
- Titans (2.4 YPC)
- Cowboys (3.1 YPC)
- Commanders (3.1 YPC, 4.5 YPC)
The Steelers (6th in rush DVOA) also fit this mold, but were missing T.J. Watt at the time (26th in DVOA from Weeks 2-10 without him). Sanders benefited and tallied 78 yards.
A challenging matchup is in store for Sanders. The 49ers' rush defense is one of the most robust units in the league, boasting the lowest rushing yards allowed (59.89) and yards per carry allowed (3.30). They've permitted only seven of the past 47 running backs they have faced to reach at least 52 rushing yards.
Sanders, who averages 15.3 rushing attempts per game, is also in a crowded backfield with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott, so he could potentially lose some touches. Oddsmakers have set the line for Sanders' carries at 13.5. Of those seven previously mentioned running backs who hit 52 yards against San Francisco, only two have done it with under 15 rushes — a 4.6% hit rate this season.
Sanders relies on burst and explosiveness to get his yards, but that will be tough against a defense that's only allowed a longest rush of at least 15 yards once in the last nine games.
Coming off a 90-yard rushing performance the Giants — in a game that was basically over in the first quarter — this represents a letdown spot for Sanders. Against the second-ranked rush DVOA defense, Sanders needs to have an extremely efficient game to go over, and I don't see that happening.
Pick: Miles Sanders Under 50.5 Rushing Yards |
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