Betting odds: Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -4.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: With the Patriots listed as less than a touchdown favorite at home, almost two-thirds of the public is willing to bet on them. Sharp bettors aren't in that same boat, though, as steam on the Vikings helped push them from +5.5 to +4.5 at some books.
The total isn't seeing such discrepancies, though, as more than 70% of bets and dollars on the over has pushed it from 48 to 49 as of writing (see live odds here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Since hiring Mike Zimmer in 2014, the Vikings are 23-12 against the spread as an underdog, including 16-5 ATS when getting three or more points, according to our Bet Labs data.— John Ewing
Brady beat the Jets on the road to bring the Patriots to 8-3. Since 2003, Brady is 57-24-4 (70.4%) ATS the week after facing an AFC East opponent, covering the spread by an average of 6.4 points.
For context, the week after facing teams outside his division, Brady is 90-71-3 (55.9%) ATS, covering by only 2.4 points per game. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? Brady will make his 300th career start this Sunday. He's 231-68 (77.3%) straight-up in his career and 174-116-9 (61%) ATS (including playoffs). — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook vs. Patriots LB Kyle Van Noy
As good as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are, it would serve the Vikings well to diversify their offense as they haven't been particularly efficient, ranking 15th in net yards per attempt.
One matchup they should look to exploit is Cook vs. Van Noy — a reliable type who Belichick loves and will keep on the field, but he's also a player who can be exploited in coverage.
Van Noy has been targeted 33 times in coverage this season, allowing 31 completions for 313 yards. That’s a 94% completion rate and 9.5 yards per target.
Being more aggressive about attacking mismatches with Cook in the passing game would enable one of Minnesota's most explosive players to have a greater impact on the game.
Putting the ball in his stomach clearly isn't working.
Cook has carried between nine and 16 times in all six of his games, clearing 3.8 yards per carry only once. But he's been able to rack up 47 or more receiving yards in three of those games. The Vikings will try to make it four if they’re smart. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Patriots
Zimmer was confident that No. 1 cornerback Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) will suit up on Sunday, but Rhodes failed to practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Diggs (knee) also didn't practice, though he told the media that he plans to play. The defense could also be without cornerback Mackensie Alexander (knee).
The Patriots added Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) to the injury report on Thursday, but both Gronk and Brady (knee) are tentatively expected to play. Rex Burkhead (neck) is positioned to return from injured reserve and form a three-back committee with Sony Michel and James White.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Assuming he plays, Rhodes could dominate his matchup vs. Josh Gordon. He has the type of size (6-foot-1 and 210 pounds) and the speed (4.43-second 40-yard dash) to hang with even the league’s freakiest receivers.
The better question is whether Gordon deserves to still be considered one of the league’s premiere talents at the position.
Gordon joins Allen Robinson and Kelvin Benjamin as the league’s only receivers averaging fewer than two yards of separation per target. Gordon has also lost his only two shadow matchups with the Patriots against Adoree Jackson (4-81-0 on 12 targets) and Tre’Davious White (4-42-0).
One look at Rhodes’ track record this season demonstrates how stingy he’s been against the league’s bigger-bodied receivers. Gordon will need to better utilize some of his field-stretching speed to avoid becoming the next receiver to have his #RhodesClosed. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Over 49
31, 43, 38, 38, 27, 24, 36, 26, 37, 35.
Those are the Patriots’ points scored in their past 10 home games. December weather in Foxborough might not be advantageous to every offense, but the Patriots’ suddenly healthy unit has continued to rack up points in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium.
Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game this season except for that strange Week 3 matchup against the Bills when Minnesota lost by 21 points at home.
This projects to be the week's fastest matchup in combined situation neutral pace, so I’ll take the over and bet on Cousins and Brady to consistently find ways to move the ball up-and-down the field.— Hartitz
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
