Packers vs Vikings Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -3 -120 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -178 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
As a reminder of just how long the NFL season is, Green Bay and Minnesota played in Week 1 and the Vikings rolled to a home victory as a short one-point home favorite.
What have these teams looks like since as we make our Week 17 Packers vs Vikings pick?
The Packers (7-8) have underperformed expectations and are now fighting for their playoff lives. The Vikings (12-3) have clinched the division and are jockeying for seeding in the NFC playoffs.
You'd think, given that description above, that Minnesota would be a toss-up pick at worst in the rematch. Yet when you look at the Packers vs Vikings odds, Green Bay sits as a three-point home favorite. That means oddsmakers see the Packers as a better team on a neutral field despite being five games behind in the standings.
I agree with this market sentiment and love the spot for the Packers as a home divisional favorite pick. By this point in the season, everyone knows the story of the Vikings. They seem to win by one-score every single week. Whether it's a fumble recovery, long field goal, last minute scoring drive or historic collapse, Minnesota has been on the right side of every coin flip.
The Vikings are 11-0 in games decided by one score, with their only double-digit win coming in Week 1. Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL and the offense hasn't been able to effectively establish the run game.
That's a bad recipe for the rematch against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field.
Packers vs Vikings Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Packers and Vikings match up statistically:
Packers vs Vikings DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 19 | 19 | |
| Pass DVOA | 16 | 8 | |
| Rush DVOA | 26 | 32 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 22 | |
| Pass DVOA | 15 | 24 | |
| Rush DVOA | 3 | 16 | |
If you can run the ball, you can have a ton of success against Green Bay's underachieving defensive front. The Packers are last in defensive rush DVOA and 31st in both rushing success rate and EPA/rush allowed. Green Bay has been exposed on the ground by Philadelphia and Tennessee — and even Miami managed almost five yards per carry last week.
The problem is Minnesota can't really exploit this because its own running game has been a mess most of the season. Dalvin Cook, who hasn't had much help from his offensive line, has been a below-average running back when you compare his expected rushing yards to his actual this season. Minnesota is 26th in rushing success rate and 28th in EPA/rush.
Bet Minnesota vs. Green Bay at FanDuel
That has put a lot of pressure on Kirk Cousins and his receivers to produce. Justin Jefferson had a huge game in the first meeting but the strength of this Green Bay defense in the secondary. A power-run team like Philadelphia, Dallas and San Francisco has given Green Bay's defense fits, but Minnesota has more of a passing and finesse offense.
Minnesota will probably find success through the air to stay in this game, but its defense is going to have major problems stopping Rodgers and a (finally) healthy Green Bay offense. Christian Watson is questionable, but the Packers will have left tackle David Bakhtiari back in the lineup.
The Vikings are 31st in yards per play allowed. It's not even that the defense is of the bend-but-don't-break variety because they are 28th in points allowed per game, too. Simply put, the defense is just not good.
Consider the offenses that have put up points on them lately. New England and a struggling Mac Jones managed 26 points. Mike White was constantly in the red zone and threw for 369 yards, while Daniel Jones diced them up last week for 334 yards. None of those teams have as good of a pass offense as Green Bay.
Even a poor Indianapolis offense managed 19 points on offense in one half. Minnesota plays a passive zone two-deep shell and doesn't get much pressure on the quarterback.
Rodgers struggled back in Week 1, but that was with a ton of new pieces on offense. It's not the first time Rodgers has no-showed in the opening week, either. Green Bay's offense is a top-six unit since Week 10 and should roll against the Vikings.
Betting Picks
It should come as no surprise that Minnesota checks in at No. 1 in Action Network's Luck Rankings. No team has had better fortune in maybe the last decade of regular season football than the 2022 Vikings. The defense has major holes and on a play-to-play basis, Rodgers should have his way.
Green Bay ranks 25th in the Luck Rankings and its losses to Washington, New York and Detroit certainly stick out as unfortunate when you dive deeper into the box score and game flow of those games.
The Packers opened as a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line and quickly jumped to 3.5 after their upset win over Miami on Christmas. I wouldn't lay more than three points, but anything three or fewer is a bet on the desperate Packers at home.
Green Bay is the better team, regardless of what the records say.
Pick: Packers -3 | Bet to -3 |
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