The Minnesota Vikings (5-1) and Los Angeles Rams (2-4) will face off tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will be streamed exclusively on Prime Video.
The Vikings are consensus 3-point favorites over the Rams (Vikings -3) tonight with the game total set at 47. Minnesota is -150 on the moneyline to win outright, while Los Angeles is +125 to pull off the upset.
The Vikings took their first loss of the season last week against the Lions, 31-29. In 6 games so far, Sam Darnold has thrived with 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The Rams, meanwhile, beat the Raiders 20-15. Matthew Stafford has only thrown 3 touchdowns this season, but Kyren Williams has 8 rushing touchdowns.
Let's get into my Vikings vs. Rams predictions and my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football to start Week 8.
Vikings vs. Rams Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 +100 | 47 -110 / -110 | -150 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -120 | 47 -110 / -110 | +125 |
- Vikings vs. Rams Spread: Vikings -2.5
- Vikings vs. Rams Over/Under: 47 points scored
- Vikings vs. Rams Moneyline: Vikings -150, Rams +125
- Vikings vs. Rams Best Bet: Rams +3
My Rams vs. Vikings pick is on the home underdog. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
- 82% of bets and 83% of the money are on the Vikings to cover the spread.
- 64% of bets and 60% of the money are on the over.
- 89% of bets and 98% of the money on the moneyline are on the Vikings.
Spread
The Vikings are the real deal in my opinion, but they currently rank fourth in our Luck Rankings while the Rams sit at 31st, creating a luck differential of 27. This makes the Rams an official Luck Ranking play for Week 8. The market seems to be overrating the Vikings and underrating the Rams.
Sean McVay has a strong track record when game planning on short weeks, with a 5-2 against the spread (ATS) record on four days of rest. His former disciple, Kevin O’Connell, is just 1-1 ATS under similar conditions.
Interestingly, despite more than 80% of the action is coming in on the Vikings, the line has moved down from the key number of 3 to 2.5 at some sportsbooks. I was able to grab Rams +3 (-115) earlier in the week, but it’s clear that the sharps have been hitting the Rams hard.
The public has been on the right side in most of these lopsided games over the past two weeks, but will that continue? I’m hoping it won’t in this case.
Moneyline
While I like Los Angeles here, I'm taking the points and not betting its moneyline.
Over/Under
My projection for this game's total is 45, but I don't see enough in the matchup to merit a bet on the under.
My pick: Rams +3 (BetMGM, ESPN BET)
Vikings vs. Rams Thursday Night Football Week 8
Heading into the season, I mentioned that Sam Darnold had league-winning upside in fantasy and that he could have a "2022 Geno Smith-type season." At just 27 years old, a former first-round pick and in the best offensive environment of his career, Darnold has led the Vikings to a 5-1 start. I’m not one of those who thinks he’s going to turn back into a pumpkin anytime soon, even with Halloween approaching.
Darnold has been far more efficient against man coverage (10.6 yards per attempt, second in the NFL) than zone (7.8, 14th). Since the Rams play zone defense 76% of the time (sixth highest), he might be slowed down a bit in this matchup. While the Rams pass defense has been below average overall (24th in DVOA), they’ve shown improvement since benching the struggling Tre'Davious White after Week 4. Cobie Durant, Darious Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon have stepped up, and their play will be critical against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
One concern for Darnold has been his sensitivity to pressure. He ranks 28th in EPA/dropback against pressure but fifth in EPA/dropback from a clean pocket. The Rams' defense ranks fifth in pressure rate this season. Even though Los Angeles lost Aaron Donald to retirement, it has been getting strong play from first-round rookie Jared Verse, who has generated 29 pressures this season — the most of any rookie — though he’s been unlucky with just one sack. With underlying metrics pointing to his potential, the sacks will likely start to come.
Darnold has taken a sack on 25% of his pressures this season, which is above the league average. The Rams’ ability to get pressure, led by Verse and others, will be key in determining how much success the Vikings offense can have in this game.
By now, everyone knows the Vikings love to blitz — they lead the league with a 43% blitz rate this season. Matthew Stafford ranks 22nd in EPA/dropback both against the blitz and when facing four or fewer rushers, so there’s been no noticeable difference in his performance with or without extra rushers this season.
However, since 2021, Stafford has averaged 8.0 yards per attempt when blitzed with Cooper Kupp on the field and only 6.5 yards per attempt without him, according to NextGenStats. That makes Kupp’s return to the lineup tonight even more crucial as Stafford’s go-to weapon when under pressure.
The Rams offensive line has been a glaring weakness this season, but there’s some hope for improvement. Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson missed the first two games due to suspension, and last week the team benched struggling LG Logan Bruss in favor of undrafted rookie Justin Dedich, who didn’t allow a single pressure on 26 pass-blocking snaps. If Dedich proves to be an upgrade at LG, the Rams' O-line could be in better shape moving forward.
The Vikings' defense has been elite, ranking 1st in DVOA against both the pass and the run. However, LB Blake Cashman missed last week with a toe injury and is unlikely to suit up on the short week. His absence was felt as Jahmyr Gibbs had his best game of the season in terms of efficiency against them. While the Lions boast an elite rushing offense, it’s worth noting that teams have averaged 4.0 yards per carry with Cashman on the field versus 5.8 yards per carry with him off.
Kyren Williams runs inside the tackles at the fifth-highest rate in the league. The Vikings have been elite at defending outside runs (-0.4 EPA/rush, first) but are closer to the league average on inside runs (-0.11 EPA/rush, 13th). With Cashman likely out, Sean McVay may try to exploit the Vikings’ run defense by attacking them inside with Kyren.
There’s also a potential for a letdown from the Vikings' defense after last week’s emotional roller coaster of a game against the Lions, a very physical team. Teams are 0-4 ATS after facing the Lions this year and were 7-11 ATS after playing them last season. While trends like these are always taken with a grain of salt, it makes sense that teams could have a down week after such a grueling matchup.
Pick: Rams +3
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | SoFi Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 24 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
Rams vs. Vikings is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., on Thursday night. The game is broadcasted live by Prime Video.
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