The Washington Football Team (4-6) and Seattle Seahawks (3-7) have greatly underachieved this season. Yet, they are both somehow still in the playoff hunt in a crowded NFC race.
In a game with a 1-point spread and solid 46.5-point total, let's take a look at where we see value on Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks!
As always, we'll be using Sean Koerner's industry-leading NFL player projections at Action Labs to find value.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Player Props for MNF
Russell Wilson Over 230.5 Passing Yards
These defenses have two things in common: they stop the run but struggle against the pass. I don't see Seattle having much success against a Washington front seven that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, trailing only Tampa Bay and New Orleans.
Seattle is in desperation mode and their best matchups are found at the wide receiver position with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Washington has allowed the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, giving Wilson every opportunity to beat this total. Ron Rivera's secondary doesn't have a cornerback inside the Top 30 in PFF coverage rating. If Wilson is going to have a favorable passing matchup, this is it.
We project Wilson at 236.5 passing yards, and this prop is much lower than the 243.5 posted at DraftKings.
D.K. Metcalf Under 5.0 Receptions
While I do see Russell Wilson cresting his passing yardage prop, I don't project wide receiver D.K. Metcalf to reach six receptions. Metcalf has failed to hit this total in three of his past four games, and is only averaging 4.45 receptions per game throughout his career. While Metcalf has posted six receptions in four of his 10 games this year, he still is only averaging 4.6 receptions per game.
Wilson targeted eight different players in last week's loss at Arizona. The strength of their passing attack with certainly come from Metcalf and Lockett, but I think this total is too high given his per game averages.
We project Metcalf for 4.7 receptions and have this as a 7-rated prop in Sean Koerner's model.
J.D. McKissic Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
I project both teams to struggle with rushing efficiency, but J.D. McKissic doesn't need much to hit this low rushing total.
The beauty of McKissic is his versatility. He is a rushing or receiving option whenever he is in the game. That versatility keeps the defense off-balance, and has led to him beating this prop in three of the past five games, including two games over 40 yards.
I expect Washington leading rusher Antonio Gibson to get the majority of carries, but I also expect Russell Wilson to find success through the air against Washington. That should lead to a more scoring, forcing Washington to pass more, and giving McKissic close to a 50% snap share.
Last week, McKissic saw a 49.2% snap share, his highest in three weeks. That translated into seven rushing attempts, which would eclipse this total at a 2.3 yards per carry average.
We project McKissic for 17 rushing yards, with most books listing this prop at 17.5 or even 19.5 rushing yards. I'm taking the extra value and betting the over this 15.5-yard total for Washington's highly-used RB2.
