49ers vs Cardinals Picks
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Brandon Anderson: I’m going out on a limb and backing the Cards in Mexico City.
This could go poorly. Kyler Murray looks like he'll be sidelined again. DeAndre Hopkins was a late injury report add with a hamstring injury, and we don’t know if he can go while fellow wideout Marquise Brown is still out. It looks like Arizona could be short as many as three offensive linemen; corner Byron Murphy is also out. Gulp.
Still, I can’t get past this number. It’s just too long, injuries or not.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 1-6-1 ATS as more than a TD favorite, and Kyle Shanahan teams are rarely great as favorites.
He’s 17-28-1 ATS (38%) as a favorite, and he’s also an ugly 2-7-1 ATS against the Cardinals lifetime. In fact, Arizona has won 11 of 14 in this rivalry, despite all of San Francisco’s recent success. He’s also 3-6 ATS against backup quarterbacks, losing all three games the last two seasons, including one November game against Colt McCoy.
This is also typically the right spot to back Kliff Kingsbury. He’s 16-4-2 ATS (80%) as an underdog away from home, winning nine of the last 10 outright. He’s also an incredible 13-1-1 ATS (93%) as an underdog against coaches who have never won a Super Bowl, covering by 10.1 PPG.
Some matchups just work. The Cards fall squarely into that 3-to-10 underdog range too. That group covers 65% of the time, and that increases to 73% in division games and 73% when a team is getting under half the spread tickets (like Arizona).
The Cardinals are a risk because of the various injuries, but there’s real risk in backing the 49ers, too. They don’t have an impressive win on the schedule over the last two months — they’ve lost to the Falcons, Bears and Broncos.
The defense is down to 26th in DVOA the last five games, below Arizona, and the line is besieged by injuries. This is just too much credit to give a still-theoretical team.
You may be inclined to wait for more injury clarity, and I get it. If Murray and Hopkins play, this line probably drops to a TD or below, closer to where it ought to be.
Do we get double digits with McCoy? I’m not sure it gets there, so I’d rather gamble on the high line now and get the extra points.
Garoppolo and Shanahan simply haven’t earned my trust.
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Ricky Henne: No team struggles defending tight ends like the Cardinals. Arizona is giving up the most catches (7.5), yards (77.9) and targets (nine) per game against them, and now faces one of the league’s top players at the position in George Kittle.
Oddsmakers set the line for his longest reception at 18.5 yards, which seems low for several reasons.
First off, a tight end has caught a pass of at least 19 yards against Arizona in six of nine games. Meanwhile, Kittle’s had at least one reception over that threshold all but once this season. The only time he fell short was in his first game of the year.
I also can’t help but think Mexico City’s high altitude acts in his favor. Kittle is already a load to bring down. Playing 7,200 feet above sea level figures to make that even tougher on winded would-be tacklers.
There are a lot more mouths to feed than there used to be for the 49ers, but I’m pouncing on this one. Kittle doesn’t need many opportunities to bust out a big play. After all, his only catch last week went for 21 yards.
Don’t overthink this one. I’d play it up to 20.5.
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Sam Farley: The 49ers-Cardinals game in Mexico City offers us a nice +225 play.
If there's one thing we've learned about the Cardinals defense this season, it's that they've struggled against opposing tight ends.In 10 games, they have allowed 778 receiving yards to the position, a league high, and seven touchdowns, which is tied for a league high.
Now, they face a team coached by one of the smartest minds in football and a tight end who is amongst the league's best.
George Kittle probably hasn't delivered what fantasy managers would have hoped this year, but he's picked it up after a slow start. He's found the end zone in two of his last three games – at +225, it’s a good price to bet on a score.
