Eagles vs. Commanders Picks
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Brandon Anderson: The Eagles get a second straight primetime game and plenty of rest after playing Thursday last week.
The full-game line feels a bit inflated, and double-digit road underdogs covered 57% of the time in the first 10 weeks of the season, including the first time these teams played. The Eagles ran up the score 24-0 in the second quarter and got huge pressure on Carson Wentz, sacking him nine times.
Wentz won't get to start in his return to Philadelphia, but the Commanders offense has remained somewhere between meh and bad under Taylor Heinicke.
Washington continues to get off to slow starts. The Commanders entered Week 10 with the NFL's worst DVOA offense in the first quarter and rank 30th in the first half, while Philadelphia ranks first on offense and second on defense in the first half.
You probably joined the rest of the world and got burned by Eagles 1H against the Texans, but it's the right play again. Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in the first half this season, and you avoid the key number by playing that way.
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Billy Ward: Sportsbooks continue to set first-half lines for Eagles games as if they expect roughly half of the scoring to come before halftime. In this case, it's even slightly less than that — with the full game total at 43.5.
That's clearly a mistake, as the Eagles start games aggressively, build a lead, and then take their foot off the gas. They're averaging just over 20 points themselves in the first half of games, but just eight in the second.
The Eagles also rank first in DVOA against the pass, but 27th against the run. That means Washington should have more offensive success early, before it inevitably has to start throwing the ball more chasing points.
I prefer the 21.5 total at -110 over paying heavier juice at 21. However, I'd take over 21 at -125 if the 21.5 gets juiced any higher.
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Ricky Henne: Miles Sanders has flown under the radar thanks to Jalen Hurts’ MVP-caliber season, which is a shame since he’s been lights out all year. Sanders’ 656 yards on the ground are seventh most among running backs, while his 82 yards per game ranks fifth in the league.
So, why has the line for Sanders’ rushing yards hovered around 68.5 all week? That’s a great question, considering he’s eclipsed that number in six of the Eagles’ eight games this year, including three straight and four of his last five.
This isn’t the easiest matchup. Washington’s run defense ranks second in DVOA (-22.9%), per Football Outsiders, but Sanders’ production speaks for itself. He boasts the second-most yards before contact among all running backs (420) thanks to a mauling offensive line. Meanwhile, his 3.2 yards after contact ranks second among running backs with at least 100 carries.
The volume should be there for Sanders as the heavily favored Eagles should be comfortably ahead most of the night. And if not, he’s a threat to break out a big run at a moment’s notice as his five runs of at least 20 yards are tied for fourth most in the NFL.
Pick: Miles Sanders Over 68.5 Rushing Yards |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Eagles' pass defense has been the cornerstone of their success so far this season. Their ability to apply pressure while not having to drop backs into coverage have allowed Philly to neutralize even the best passing offenses.
The Eagles have allowed more than 215 passing yards just once this season, and conversely Heinicke has only surpassed the 215 yard mark once. The latter came in his second appearance of the season against the Colts.
With the Eagles forcing an interception on 4% of their defensive drives, we could see the Commanders stray away from the pass game early on Monday night.
