Since the dawn of betting, many players have dreamed of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for the Week 15 Monday Night Football doubleheader.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll operate with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 15 on FanDuel.
NFL Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Bears-Vikings Under 44.5 (-114)
- Aaron Jones 80+ Rushing Yards (+168)
- Falcons-Raiders Over 44.5 (-110)
- Kyle Pitts Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Parlay Odds: +1269 | $10 Bet Wins $126.90
Bears-Vikings Under 44.5 (-114)
Looking around the market for this one, totals range from 43.5 to 44.5, with the highest coming on FanDuel. That's one of the reasons I'm starting my parlay there.
While Caleb Williams seems to have somewhat rebounded from the rookie wall he hit midseason — a new coaching staff probably explains that — Chicago has topped 20 points just once in the past seven contests.
Now they take on the league's #1 defense by DVOA on the road in Minnesota. I've projected this as a tough spot for both offensive lines, particularly the Bears. They have the highest (worst) combined adjusted sack rate matchup in Week 15 and are without their starting center.
It's not as tough of a spot for the Vikings, but their offensive line has also performed poorly in pass protection. I expect the most offensive success in this game to come from the Vikings rushing attack.
That obviously slows down the game. Plus, if Chicago can't get anything going on offense, there's no reason for Minnesota to push the pace here. Finally, while this was a high-scoring matchup (57 points) in Week 12, defenses typically perform better in divisional rematches than they do the first time.
Aaron Jones 80+ Rushing Yards (+168)
Jones gashed the Bears for 108 yards in the first meeting of these teams. That was on the road in Chicago, in a game the Vikings won by just three points.
Now, Minnesota is at home and favored by a full touchdown. That should lead to a more positive game script for the Vikings and easier conditions to run than outside at Soldier Field.
As mentioned above, the one positive line matchup I'm projecting in this game is the Vikings rushing attack. That's without considering Chicago is down one of their starting defensive tackles, which further boosts the Vikings' outlook.
Going with the 80+ line brings the total odds to +350 for this SGP, but you could go with shorter or longer numbers to increase the likelihood of the bet hitting or the total odds, respectively.
Falcons-Raiders Over 44.5 (-110)
The second game on Monday night features two of the bottom eight defenses in the league by DVOA.
I'm projecting at least above-average matchups for both offensive lines in run and pass blocking. These teams also play at a top-eight overall pace, though much is due to their combined 8-18 record. Atlanta still plays fast in a neutral game script (third fastest in the league), and since they're moderate favorites, that could force the Raiders to keep pace.
I'm slightly concerned about the quarterback situation for the Raiders, but there's probably not a huge difference between Aidan O'Connell and Desmond Ridder at the end of the day.
As long as the Raiders can keep this one moderately close, there should be plenty of points to go around here.
Kyle Pitts Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
I don't love that FanDuel is slightly above the rest of the market on Pitts' line, with most other books hanging at 28.5. Unfortunately, we can't do cross-sportsbook parlays, and I'd rather get the better number on the Bears-Vikings total than on a player prop.
With that out of the way, I really like this bet. The Raiders have given up the third most yards to tight ends of any team this season, over 67 per game. Pitts has been a huge disappointment, but he saw six targets last week against the Vikings.
This is a much better matchup, and the line requires Pitts to go for less than half of the yardage the Raiders allow on average. If there's ever a spot for him to have a breakout game, this is it.
I wouldn't mind taking an even higher number here to juice the parlay further, but we're getting +1269 combined odds which is enough for me.
MNF Parlay Odds: +1269 | $10 Bet Wins $126.90
