In NFL fandom, team loyalty often blurs the line between optimistic support and outright delusion. A recent survey suggests that some fan bases might be indulging in more wishful thinking than others when it comes to their team's chances.
The survey polled over 3,000 football fans across the U.S., asking how confident they are about their team's Super Bowl chances, which fan base they consider the most delusional, what they believe are the main obstacles to their team's success, and more. The results reveal some intriguing insights into where belief meets reality. We asked over 3,000 football fans the following questions:
🏈 Do you believe your team will win the Super Bowl this year?
🏈 What do you think is/are the blocker/s to your team's success?
🏈 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I believe my team’s biggest rival is a lesser team regardless of the current standings”
🏈 Which fan base do you think is the most delusional?
🏈 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I think my NFL team’s star player is the best at their position in the entire NFL”
🏈 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I believe fans of my NFL team have a reputation of having unrealistic expectations”
Below you can find the breakdown of the results, revealing insights into the perceptions of NFL teams, the optimism and delusion among fan bases, and the factors fans believe are blocking their team’s path to success.
But before you do, be sure to check our Super Bowl Odds pages as the Chiefs are favored to three-peat.
Top 10 Most Optimistic NFL Fan Bases
Leading the charge are the Kansas City Chiefs fans, with a remarkable 92% believing their team will secure the championship—a reflection of their recent successes. Detroit Lions fans follow with an impressive 82%, demonstrating a hopeful outlook despite historical challenges. The Buffalo Bills faithful also show strong confidence, with 81% anticipating a Super Bowl victory. Baltimore Ravens (66%), Philadelphia Eagles (63%), and Pittsburgh Steelers (61%) fans contribute to this list of hopeful fan bases, each displaying significant belief in their teams. Rounding out the top are the Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans, both with 45%, alongside the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers, each at 43%.
Top 10 Most Pessimistic NFL Fan Bases
Top 10 that don’t:
| Fan Base | No, not a chance |
| Cleveland Browns | 69% |
| New York Jets | 69% |
| Carolina Panthers | 63% |
| New England Patriots | 56% |
| New York Giants | 56% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 52% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 51% |
| Miami Dolphins | 51% |
| Chicago Bears | 51% |
| Tennessee Titans | 45% |
On the flip side of Super Bowl optimism, Cleveland Browns and New York Jets fans top the list of skeptics, with 69% doubting their team’s chances of winning this season. The Carolina Panthers follow closely, with 63% of their fans sharing this pessimism. The New England Patriots and New York Giants also show skepticism, with 56% of each doubting a championship victory. Completing the list are the Dallas Cowboys (52%), Las Vegas Raiders (51%), Miami Dolphins (51%), Chicago Bears (51%), and Tennessee Titans (45%), all expressing doubt about their teams' prospects this year.
Fan bases that believe within a few moves they could be contending:
| Fan Base | No, but with a few moves the team could be contending |
| Minnesota Vikings | 56% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 52% |
| Denver Broncos | 51% |
| Washington Commanders | 49% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 47% |
| Green Bay Packers | 46% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 44% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 43% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 41% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 41% |
Among NFL fan bases, there are those who, while not confident about a Super Bowl win this year, remain hopeful that with a few strategic moves, their team could soon be contenders. Leading this group are Minnesota Vikings fans, with 56% believing that the right adjustments could turn their fortunes around. Close behind, 52% of Seattle Seahawks supporters and 51% of Denver Broncos fans share this optimistic outlook. Fans of the Washington Commanders (49%) and Los Angeles Rams (47%) also hold onto the belief that minor tweaks could propel their teams into contention. Rounding out this hopeful cohort are fans of the Green Bay Packers (46%), Los Angeles Chargers (44%), Atlanta Falcons (43%), and both the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals, each at 41%.
What Fans See as Barriers to Their Team's Success
Q2. What do you think is/are the blocker/s to your team's success?
| Blocker to Team's Success | Overall NFL Fan Response |
| Defence | 33% |
| Coach | 29% |
| Offence | 29% |
| Your starting QB | 22% |
| Front office | 14% |
| League officiating/unfair calls | 12% |
| The NFL being rigged | 12% |
| Special teams | 10% |
| Weather | 6% |
| Your own fan base | 5% |
| Other (please specify): | 4% |
| I do not think there are any blockers to my team’s success | 21% |
When it comes to identifying obstacles to their team's success, NFL fans point to various factors. The most commonly cited issues are deficiencies in defense (33%), coaching (29%), and offense (29%). Quarterback performance also raises concerns for 22% of fans, while 14% blame the front office. Notably, more than 1 in 10 fans (12%) believe that unfair league officiating or calls, and the notion that the NFL is rigged, are significant barriers to their team's achievement.
Fan Bases that blame the Coach, the QB and the Front Office!
Top 5 fan bases that blame coach
| Fan Base | Coach |
| New York Jets | 57% |
| Chicago Bears | 50% |
| New Orleans Saints | 46% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 46% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 44% |
When it comes to assessing the barriers to success, many NFL fans point to coaching as a significant issue. New York Jets fans lead this sentiment, with 57% attributing their team's struggles to coaching, followed by the Chicago Bears (50%) and New Orleans Saints (46%).
Top 5 that blame QB
| Fan Base | Your Starting QB |
| New York Jets | 45% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 45% |
| Carolina Panthers | 42% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 40% |
| New York Giants | 38% |
Similarly, the performance of starting quarterbacks is a common concern. The New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts both have 45% of their fans highlighting this as a key issue, with the Carolina Panthers close behind at 42%.
Top 5 fan bases that blame front office
| Fan Base | Front Office |
| New York Jets | 38% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 29% |
| Chicago Bears | 27% |
| Cleveland Browns | 25% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 24% |
Criticism of the front office is also prevalent, with New York Jets fans again leading the charge at 38%, and Dallas Cowboys fans attributing 29% of their woes to management decisions.
Top 5 fan bases that believe the NFL is rigged
| Fan Base | The NFL Being Rigged |
| Houston Texans | 25% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 19% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 19% |
| Buffalo Bills | 19% |
| Washington Commanders | 18% |
A particularly notable concern is the belief among some fans that the NFL itself is rigged. This sentiment is most acutely felt by Houston Texans fans, with 25% expressing this belief, followed by significant portions of Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, and Buffalo Bills supporters.
Rivalry Perceptions: Fans' Belief in Being Superior to Their Biggest Rivals
Q3. How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “I believe my team’s biggest rival is a lesser team regardless of the current standings”
| Overall NFL Fan Response | I believe my team’s biggest rival is a lesser team regardless of the current standings |
| Strongly agree | 24% |
| Somewhat agree | 27% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 28% |
| Somewhat disagree | 13% |
| Strongly disagree | 8% |
When asked about their perceptions of rival teams, a significant portion of NFL fans express confidence in their own superiority. Overall, 51% of fans agree—either strongly or somewhat—that their team's biggest rival is a lesser opponent, regardless of current standings.
By Fan Base
Top 10 Fan Bases:
| Fan Base | Strongly or Somewhat Agree |
| Atlanta Falcons | 66% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 64% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 64% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 58% |
| Washington Commanders | 57% |
| Buffalo Bills | 56% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 55% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 54% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 52% |
| Houston Texans | 52% |
This sentiment is particularly strong among Atlanta Falcons fans, with 66% believing their primary rivals are lesser teams. Similarly, 64% of both Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens supporters hold this view. Other fan bases with a strong sense of superiority include Arizona Cardinals (58%), Washington Commanders (57%), and Buffalo Bills (56%). Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers fans also subscribe to this belief, at 55% and 54% respectively, while San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans fans round out the list, each with 52%.
The Most Delusional NFL Fan Bases
Q4. Which fan base do you think is the most delusional?
| Which fan base do you think is the most delusional? | Total |
| Dallas Cowboys | 28% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5% |
| New York Jets | 4% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4% |
| Chicago Bears | 3% |
When it comes to perceptions of delusion among NFL fan bases, the Dallas Cowboys stand out prominently, with 28% of respondents labeling them as the most delusional. This far surpasses other teams, with the Kansas City Chiefs being a distant second at just 5%, followed closely by the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders, each at 4%. The Chicago Bears round out the top five, with 3% of fans viewing them as overly optimistic about their team’s prospects.
By Fan Base
| Fan Base | Dallas Cowboys |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 55% |
| Washington Commanders | 49% |
| Houston Texans | 48% |
| New Orleans Saints | 42% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 34% |
| Carolina Panthers | 33% |
Within the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys are overwhelmingly considered the most delusional fan base, particularly by fans of several key teams. Philadelphia Eagles fans, at 55%, are the most likely to point the finger at Cowboys supporters for having unrealistic expectations. Close behind, Washington Commanders and Houston Texans fans also see the Cowboys in this light, with 49% and 48% respectively sharing this view, followed by New Orleans Saints fans at 42%.
Fan base each team finds the most delusional
Across the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys are consistently perceived as the most delusional fan base by a wide array of other teams. Notably, 48% of both Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts fans consider Cowboys supporters to have unrealistic expectations. Other significant numbers include Baltimore Ravens fans at 31%, Green Bay Packers fans at 32%, and Carolina Panthers fans at 33%, all pointing to the Cowboys as the epitome of delusion.Even the Dallas Cowboys perceived themselves as the most delusional fan base at 21%. Meanwhile, Jacksonville Jaguars fans diverge slightly, instead naming New England Patriots fans as the most delusional, with 13%.
Fans' Belief in Their Star Player's Dominance
| I think my NFL team’s star player is the best at their position in the entire NFL | Total |
| Strongly agree | 26% |
| Somewhat agree | 27% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 24% |
| Somewhat disagree | 13% |
| Strongly disagree | 9% |
A significant portion, 53%, either strongly or somewhat agree that their star player holds this distinction, indicating a high level of pride and confidence in their team's talent. Meanwhile, 22% of fans either somewhat or strongly disagree, suggesting a more critical or realistic appraisal of their player's standing within the league.
By Fan Base
Top 5 fan bases:
| Fan Base | Strongly or Somewhat Agree |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 85% |
| Buffalo Bills | 78% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 78% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 71% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 69% |
Confidence in star players is particularly high among Kansas City Chiefs supporters, where 85% either strongly or somewhat agree that their star player is the best at their position in the league. Similarly, fans of the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens show a lot of confidence, with 78% from each group sharing this belief. Philadelphia Eagles fans (71%) and Minnesota Vikings fans (69%) also express strong agreement.
Fans' Perceptions of Their Own Fan Bases’ Reputation
| “I believe fans of my NFL team have a reputation of having unrealistic expectations” | Overall NFL Fan Response |
| Strongly agree | 17% |
| Somewhat agree | 26% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 24% |
| Somewhat disagree | 20% |
| Strongly disagree | 13% |
NFL fans have mixed feelings about whether their team’s supporters are known for having unrealistic expectations. A significant portion, 43%, either strongly or somewhat agree that their fan base carries this reputation, indicating an awareness of their own optimism. In contrast, 33% either somewhat or strongly disagree, suggesting that a notable group believes their expectations are grounded in reality.
By Fan Base
Top 10 Fan Bases
| Fan Base | Strongly or Somewhat Agree |
| Cleveland Browns | 60% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 58% |
| New York Jets | 57% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 56% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 56% |
| Houston Texans | 52% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 52% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 52% |
| Chicago Bears | 50% |
| New York Giants | 50% |
Among NFL fan bases, Cleveland Browns supporters lead in acknowledging their reputation for having unrealistic expectations, with 60% either strongly or somewhat agreeing with this assessment. Fans of the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets follow closely, with 58% and 57% respectively, recognizing a tendency towards overly optimistic views. Other significant fan bases, including the Jacksonville Jaguars and Dallas Cowboys at 56%, also admit to being seen as having lofty expectations.
Methodology
The research was commissioned by the Action Network and carried out online by Research Without Barriers (RWB). The survey was conducted between November 20- November 25, 2024, and the sample comprised 3,016 USA NFL fans.
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You can find the full breakdown of results here.
All research conducted adheres to the MRS Codes of Conduct (2023) in the UK and ICC/ESOMAR World Research Guidelines. RWB is registered with the Information Commissioner's Office and is fully compliant with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the Data Protection Act (2018).
