The five most valuable props for Thursday Night Football's Bills vs. Patriots involve the usual suspects — each team's quarterbacks: Josh Allen and Mac Jones.
But it's not on either to perform particularly well on the stat sheet. With the second-best (Patriots) and third-best defenses (Bills) facing off at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night, our algorithms expect fewer yards across the board.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Bills vs. Patriots
- Mac Jones under 231.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Rhamondre Stevenson under 37.5 receiving yards (DraftKings)
- Josh Allen under 266.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Devin Singletary over 11.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Hunter Henry under 25.5 receiving yards -120 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Thursday afternoon. These are the market's most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Thursday Night Football's Bills vs. Patriots is on Mac Jones to throw for 231 yards or fewer.
Our models expect Jones to throw for closer to 221.5 yards. That gives the bet a roughly 10% betting edge.
Essentially, you're getting a 10% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
Same goes on the under for Josh Allen's passing prop. He's projected to throw for about 251.5 yards, a 15 yard discrepancy from the market price. That gives his under about 8% in value.
Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson to catch for 37 or fewer yards has about a 9% edge. He's expected to receive for about 31.8 yards in total.
On that same theme, Hunter Henry's receiving yard under is the move tonight, according to our algorithms. He's projected for just 21.6 yards.
But despite all those unders, there is one over that may be worthwhile. Our models think Bills running back Devin Singletary's receiving yard prop may be priced too low at o11.5. Singletary is projected to catch for closer to 15 yards on Thursday night.
