Betting odds: New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Spread: Patriots -10.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Saturday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Attracting 90% of spread bets, the Patriots look like they'll be the most popular bet of the week. Despite the public onslaught, they’ve remained in the -10 range, with only a couple of books moving up to -10.5.
The over/under has bounced between from 47 and 46 with 79% of the dollars coming in on the over (You can find updated odds here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Both the Patriots and Jets enter this game coming off a bye and for Tom Brady having some before prep before a road game at the MetLife Stadium may be a good thing.
Over the past decade, Brady is 2-7 against the spread (22.2%) on the road against the Jets, his least profitable road opponent.
According to our Bet Labs data, Brady has only lost more than one unit on the road to three different teams over the past decade: Jets (-5), Dolphins (-2.2), Jaguars (-2). — Evan Abrams
The Patriots are coming off a bye week. With extra time to prepare (at least eight days between games) the Patriots have gone 29-16-3 (64%) ATS in the regular season since 2003. — John Ewing
Teams have historically been profitable after a bye week. The optimal situation to bet teams following a bye is as a road favorite: +24.9 units since 2003. —Ewing
Did you know? Brady has faced a divisional opponent on the road off a bye three times in his career. He is 3-0 straight up and ATS, winning by 46, 22 and 14 points. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Patriots defensive backs vs Jets wide receivers
Wide receiver Robby Anderson (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and seems unlikely to play even though he had the Week 11 bye to recover. In his absence, Quincy Enunwa will serve as the primary outside receiver for the Jets.
While Anderson opens up the field for his teammates and is a big-play deep threat with his 16.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT), Enunwa is an underneath possession receiver who tends to stick fairly close to the line of scrimmage. His 6.7 aDOT would be embarrassing even for most tight ends.
On the outside, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have collectively held receivers to a 50% catch rate on 112 targets. They tend to play tight coverage, which is why they allow so few receptions.
Their aggressiveness also makes them vulnerable deep, and perhaps if Anderson were active, he’d be able to get free for a couple of big plays, but Enunwa isn’t the type of receiver who will threaten Gilmore or McCourty down the field.
With a No. 1 receiver who doesn’t run deep facing two cornerbacks who sit on routes, the Jets will likely struggle to get much going in the passing game outside of the numbers. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Patriots
The Patriots are actually approaching a clear injury report coming out of their Week 11 bye. Julian Edelman (ankle), Brady (knee), Sony Michel (knee) and Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) are expected to suit up Sunday, so the only real question marks are backup tight end Dwayne Allen (knee) and right guard Shaq Mason (calf).
The Jets, on the other hand, are expected to again be without Sam Darnold (foot). Safety Marcus Maye (shoulder, thumb), left guard James Carpenter (shoulder) along with receivers Enunwa (ankle) and Anderson (ankle) could also join Darnold on the sideline.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Since Julian Edelman’s return, he leads the Patriots with 9.3 targets per game and has a fantastic matchup in the slot against Buster Skrine, who is PFF's No. 99 graded corner of 111 qualifying corners.
He has a 20.1-point ceiling projection on FanDuel with a 94% Bargain Rating. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Jets +10.5
I do not like making this bet, but the math tells me to do it. (Our Bet Labs model has this true line at Jets +5.8.)
When we last saw the Jets, they were being blown out by the Los Angeles Rams. Wait, what? Oh no, it was actually the Buffalo freaking Bills.
So after looking like a total laughing stock against the worst team in the league, I’m throwing my money down on the Jets against the best bet in football over the past decade.
You don’t always have to like every bet you make. In this case, I cringed as I hit submit, but I’ll continue to trust the numbers and data that points toward the Jets being in a good spot here. — Travis Reed
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
