Patriots vs. Raiders Odds
The Raiders saw their most realistic paths to the postseason evaporate in a shell-shocking loss to the Rams a week ago. Now, they host a Patriots team clinging to the AFC's last wild-card spot.
These are two of the most frustrating teams in the league — you never know what you’re going to get from week-to-week, which is why I’m steering clear from a side. However, there is a potential betting edge in this game, and it comes from one of the most unlikely of places.
Patriots vs. Raiders Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Patriots and Raiders match up statistically:
Patriots vs. Raiders DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 25 | 31 | |
| Pass DVOA | 24 | 32 | |
| Rush DVOA | 24 | 18 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 16 | 3 | |
| Pass DVOA | 19 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 10 | |
The dreaded sophomore slump has hit Mac Jones hard, and it’s fair to wonder how much Josh McDaniels’ exodus from New England to Las Vegas has to do with it.
Jones' QBR has dipped from 56.9 to 33.8, and his passer rating from 92.5 to 85.7. He ranks 24th in DYAR (32) and 23rd in DVOA (-9.6%) according to Football Outsiders, which is a far cry from his Pro Bowl rookie campaign in which he ranked 12th (620) and 13th (6.1%), respectively.
Bet New England vs. Las Vegas at FanDuel
Nonetheless, the Patriots haven’t shied away from the passing game. Jones’ 30.5 attempts per contest is nearly identical to the 30.6 from a year ago. So why does he have such pedestrian numbers?
Matt Patricia simply refuses to let him air it out like McDaniels did. Jones’ 5.2 completed air yards per completion ranks 24th this year and his 3.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 21st. In 2021, he ranked 17th (5.8) and 16th (3.9) in those categories, respectively.
Clearly, Jones has regressed, but don’t pay attention to any of it. Throw all those struggles out the window, at least for this week, as circumstances dictate there should be plenty of volume for Jones to put up numbers.
While there may not be many games in which Jones has an edge, this is one of them. The Raiders have been torched repeatedly through the air, ranking last in passing DVOA (28.4%) while giving up the fourth-most passing yards per game (254.5).
The Patriots should also do damage once their receivers get the ball in their hands. New England’s 5.5 yards after the catch per completion ranks ninth and is an area Las Vegas struggles to defend. The Raiders have given up 1,679 yards after the catch, which is fourth most.
Meanwhile, New England’s running back room has been hit hard by injuries. Damien Harris will miss his third straight game with a thigh injury, while Rhamondre Stevenson is a true game-time decision after leaving Monday’s victory over the Cardinals with an ankle injury. He missed the first two practices this week before returning in limited fashion on Friday.
If they’re without their top two rushers, there’s an excellent chance the Patriots let Jones air it out more than usual.
Betting Picks
Are we really backing Mac Jones here? I’m holding my nose and doing exactly that, banking him to do what virtually every quarterback has done, which is put up yards against Las Vegas.
Again, this as much an indictment of the Raiders’ abysmal pass defense as it is concern over New England’s ability to run the ball thanks to a banged-up crew. Even if Stevenson guts it out, it’s tough to rely on him being 100%. And if he can’t suit up, is Bill Belichick really going to rely on the legs of Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, or the right arm of Jones?
As of Saturday afternoon, you could grab the line for his passing yards at 231.5. Jones has eclipsed that number in five of the nine games he’s played from start to finish.
At the same time, the Raiders have allowed teams to eclipse 230 yards in the air all but once this season. I’m not totally sold on Jones and wouldn’t go further than the 232.5 yards some sportsbooks are offering, but this number is low enough for me to back him.
Plus, you just know Belichick would relish a big game from Jones against his former pupil, right?
Pick: Mac Jones Over 231.5 Passing Yards | Bet to 232.5 |
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