The New England Patriots (3-8) and Miami Dolphins (4-6) will face off in an AFC East battle in NFL Week 12. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will be broadcast on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+.
The Dolphins are favored by 7 points with the game total set at 46 points. The Dolphins are -360 moneyline favorites to win outright; the Patriots are +280 to pull off the upset.
The Patriots lost 28-22 to the Rams last week. Rookie Drake Maye continued to show promise with 282 passing yards and two touchdowns, but an interception on New England's final drive ended the game. The Dolphins won 34-19 last week over the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa was brilliant with 288 passing yards and three touchdowns, while former Patriot Jonnu Smith caught two touchdowns and De'Von Achane gained 105 totals yards of offense.
Let's get into my Patriots vs. Dolphins predictions and NFL picks.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 +100 | 46 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -120 | 46 -110o / -110u | -360 |
- Patriots vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -7 (-120)
- Patriots vs. Dolphins over/under: 46 points scored
- Patriots vs. Dolphins moneyline: Dolphins -360, Patriots +280
- Patriots vs. Dolphins best bet: Dolphins -7 (-115)
MyPatriots vs. Dolphins pick is on Miami. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
In Tua Tagovailoa's career, the Dolphins have typically feasted when playing bad teams at home. That's when this offense really thrives and blows teams out.
I'm laying seven points with Miami this week as every trend points toward that being the pick.
Also, I don't trust Drake Maye to keep up with the Dolphins offense on the road.
Moneyline
I'll lay the points with Miami, which would also be a good team to tease instead of betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
NFL expert Chris Raybon projects this total as 46, so I have no pick.
My Pick: Dolphins -7 (-115)
Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL Week 12 Preview
This is a spot that Tua Tagovailoa has historically thrived in.
First off, the Dolphins finally have the Patriots’ number. Miami has won (and covered) four straight games against New England. That’s the Dolphins’ longest such streak against the Pats since 1998-2002, when they got to five straight.
The Dolphins typically take care of business against inferior opponents with their QB1. Tagovailoa is 18-11 against the spread (ATS) against teams below .500 in his career. More specifically, he’s 13-7 ATS against such teams at home.
Miami is also due for some positive regression at home.
The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS at home this season, but they haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. Obviously, a lot of that 1-4 record has to do with Tagovailoa’s health.
Want more trends? Good, because I have them, courtesy of researcher Evan Abrams.
Tagovailoa thrives as a big favorite. Miami has been a favorite of six or more points 15 times since he entered the NFL and is 14-1 straight-up and 11-4 ATS. The only straight-up loss was last season against the Titans.
My Pick: Dolphins -7 (-115)
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Trends
NFL Weather
