Week 3 kicks off with an AFC East divisional duel on Thursday Night Football between the New England Patriots (1-1) and New YorkJets (1-1). I'm spotlighting value on four particular player props for this Patriots vs. Jets matchup that begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video on Thursday, Sept. 19.
So, dive into my Patriots vs. Jets player props for QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Rhamondre Stevenson and more.
Sam Farley's Patriots vs. Jets Player Props
- Jacoby Brissett Under 165.5 Passing Yards (-110, bet365)
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
- Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown (+360, Caesars)
- Allen Lazard Over 2.5 Receptions (-130, DraftKings)
Jacoby Brissett Under 165.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Through two games, we’ve seen the Patriots rely on the run with Stevenson standing out. That’s set to continue on Thursday night, and I'm taking the under on Brissett's passing yards.
Brissett has gone well under this line in the Patriots' first two games with 121 yards in Week 1 and 149 in Week 2. He hasn't been very efficient with his arm and has completed 15 passes in each game.
Now, Brissett faces a Jets defense that has a great secondary despite being diced up by Brock Purdy in Week 1 and allowing Will Levis to throw for 192 yards on Sunday.
The Pats have had success with the run and are likely to continue it against a team that ranks in the bottom third against the rush through two games.
Pick: Jacoby Brissett Under 169.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Speaking of the Patriots’ ground game, I'm going to take Stevenson to go over 65.5 rushing yards.
The Jets are allowing an average of 155 rushing yards per game this season, which bodes well for this prop given the usage Stevenson has received. He’s had a combined 46 carries with 201 rushing yards so far this season. Last week against what should prove to be a stout Seahawks front seven, Stevenson still had 81 rushing yards.
Stevenson is a key part of this Patriots offense and will have the opportunity to smash this total since his heavy workload is unlikely to get lighter anytime soon.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown (+310)
Last week, Braelon Allen announced himself to the NFL with a two-touchdown performance against the Titans. This is still very much Breece Hall’s backfield, but the Jets obviously like the former Wisconsin standout.
Allen's Week 2 workload was still quite a surprise. He saw 20 snaps compared to Hall’s 41, ran 12 routes to Hall’s 21 and had four targets in the passing game — catching two — in addition to his seven carries.
We might see that usage drop a bit, but with his size, Allen can be a punishing option near the goal line and is worth backing to score a touchdown at big odds.
Pick: Braelon Allen Anytime Touchdown (+360)
Allen Lazard Over 2.5 Receptions (-120)
Allen Lazard went nuclear in Week 1 with six receptions on nine targets for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Week 2 was a disappointment. Lazard only caught two of his four targets for just 11 yards in the Jets' win over the Titans.
While that performance was discouraging, we still should be confident in him getting over 2.5 receptions against the Patriots.
It's expected that Garrett Wilson will lead Jets wide receivers in targets, but Lazard was still second in Week 2. Mike Williams, who will eventually supplant Lazard, caught his only look from Aaron Rodgers. The team is clearly being cautious with Williams following his return from last season’s injury, and a second straight short week seems like an unlikely spot to increase his workload.
Also, there's no immediate need to get Williams more involved. After a shaky debut season with the Jets, Lazard's stock has gone up since Rodgers knows and trusts his former Packers teammate.
The Titans have been great against the pass this season — giving up the least yardage in the league — and the Patriots should given Rodgers and his pass catchers a hard time — like they got in Nashville last week. I still think Lazard goes over, though, as the Jets' WR2 — for now.
Pick: Allen Lazard Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
