The New England Patriots (1-2) and San Francisco 49ers (1-2) will kick off NFL Week 4's late Sunday afternoon slate. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on platforms like YouTube TV.
The 49ers are consensus 10.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (49ers -10.5), with the over/under now set at 42 points scored, up from 40.5 earlier today. The spread has come down from 11.5 at open, while the game total opened at 45. The 49ers are -525 favorites on the moneyline, while New England is +425 to pull off an upset.
After two weeks of competing with the Bengals and Seahawks, the Patriots were brought back down to earth in a blowout loss to the Jets. Jacoby Brissett will look to continue his steady play at quarterback while leaning on running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Brock Purdy and Brandon Aiyuk are healthy for the 49ers offense, but that's about it. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel will miss this game, while Trent Williams left last week's loss to the Rams early and started the week listed as a non-participant in practice.
Let's get into our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions and our NFL predictions for Week 4.
Patriots vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 42 -108o / -112u | +440 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 42 -108o / -112u | -525 |
- Patriots vs. 49ers spread: 49ers -10.5
- Patriots vs. 49ers over/under: 42 points
- Patriots vs. 49ers moneyline: 49ers -525, Patriots +425
- Patriots vs. 49ers pick: Patriots +10.5
Our Patriots vs. 49ers best bet is on New England. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Our PRO signals are pointing toward the Patriots, so our pick is on this big 'dog.
Moneyline
We're passing on betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
We have no pick on this game total.
Pick: Patriots +10.5
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers NFL Week 4 Preview
By Matt Trebby
The Patriots looked like a potential spoiler throughout the season after strong showings against the Bengals and Seahawks. Then it all fell apart.
New England was dominated by the Jets last week, so much so that Drake Maye finished the game instead of Jacoby Brissett. Rhamondre Stevenson never got going, and the Pats never stood a chance.
The 49ers haven't played like a team that should be a double-digit-point favorite so far this season. They have lost back-to-back road games to the Vikings and Rams, entering this game in need of a win to avoid starting 1-3.
Sunday’s recommendation is on the Patriots to cover the spread. Surprisingly, it has less to do with fading the 49ers than it is buying the Patriots, who will have rest off a 24-3 shellacking on Week 3 TNF.
The 49ers are admittedly in a nice get-right spot. After losing two games, they’re back at home, hosting what could project to be one of the worst AFC teams by seasons end.
Action PRO reveals sharp money hit the 49ers at open, forcing a natural adjustment up to 10.5.
Now, with 10.5 in pocket, we rely on PRO Systems “Dogs After Blowout” system to guide us to a Pats cover.
Historically, when teams lose by 20 or more points, they cover the spread 58% of the time the next week if they’re at a certain spread range. Last week, “Dogs After Blowout” also called the Broncos and Panthers ATS; both teams not only covered, they blew their opponents out.
Also, a separate PRO System factoring in fading the public pinged the Pats +10.5 as a smart pick. Teams off single-digit scoring performances, getting no love in our betting trackers, have covered 61% of the time since tracking.
San Francisco is also perhaps being priced like last year’s team, and it’s still early in the season to prove public biases wrong.
To top it off, PRO signals reveal sharp action on the 49ers-Patriots under. Frankly, a low-scoring game favors a grind-it-out team like New England, and getting 10.5 seems like a wise move for Sunday.
Pick: Patriots +10.5
Betting Trends
- 71% of bets and 72% of the money are on the 49ers to cover the spread.
- 76% of bets and 65% of the money are on the over.
- 96% of bets and 60% of the money on the moneyline are on the 49ers.
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Levi's Stadium |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 29 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX / YouTube TV |
Patriots vs. 49ers is scheduled for a 4:05 p.m. ET start time, live from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Sept. 29. The game is broadcasted live by FOX and is streaming on YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
