I'll be leveraging my experience as a high school football coach and fantasy analyst with a statistics background to identify aspects of one matchup every week that you can take advantage of while setting your fantasy football lineups and/or placing bets on the upcoming slate.
This week we're focusing on the Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys.
Saints' Defensive Turnaround
The last time I wrote about the Saints defense, it was really struggling. Through the first three weeks of the season, this is how the defensive metrics looked:
- Points allowed: 34.3 (32nd)
- Completion percentage: 74.2% (31st)
- Passing yards per attempt: 10.9 (32nd)
- QB rating: 141.7 (32nd)
- Sack rate: 6.1% (20th)
- Takeaways per game: 0.33 (32nd)
In other words: The Saints were pretty clearly the worst defense in the league.
They were blowing coverage left and right, and getting crushed in the slot. They were also struggling to mount any kind of a pass rush. Fortunately for the Saints, head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen didn't quit. They simplified the calls on defense, leading to fewer busted coverages, and they improved the personnel.
Cornerback Ken Crawley has been replaced by former top-10 pick Eli Apple, who the Saints acquired in a trade with the Giants. Marcus Davenport has also emerged as the best rookie edge-rusher in the league.
All of this has led to vast improvements in the results. Here's how the Saints have fared since Week 4 in the same metrics highlighted above:
- Points allowed: 19.1 (4th)
- Completion percentage: 67.4% (20th)
- Passing yards per attempt: 7.0 (14th)
- QB rating: 89.5 (10th)
- Sack rate: 7.3% (13th)
- Takeaways per game: 2.0 (2nd)
These massive improvements have been key to New Orleans winning 10 straight games, including a massive NFC showdown with the Rams in Week 9.
Most of the focus here has been on the pass defense, but that's because the Saints have managed to stop the run all season. They're tied for first in yards allowed per carry (3.6) and rank third in Football Outsiders' rush DVOA. Right now they're playing as a complete unit.
Cowboys' O-Line Troubles
The Cowboys are notorious for being one of the most run-heavy teams in football. It's clearly a strength for them. They rank fifth in yards per rush attempt in 2018, while coming in just 25th in net yards per pass attempt.
Unfortunately, they're dealing with some injuries on the offensive line.
Dallas could be without Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin on Thursday vs New Orleans . https://t.co/shrK78zNNg
— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) November 26, 2018
Travis Frederick hasn't played all season as he deals with Guillain-Barre Syndrome, but both Smith and Martin are dealing with relatively new injuries. Smith is among the top 10 tackles graded by Pro Football Focus, while Martin is the No. 1 guard. If either were to miss time, it would be a massive blow to the Dallas offense.
Bet the Saints to Keep Streaking
Given the improvements the Saints have made on defense, and the injuries up front for the Cowboys, New Orleans should do a tremendous job of stuffing the Dallas offense.
It helps that the Saints have one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. Expect Payton to scheme Michael Thomas away from star cornerback Byron Jones — who the Cowboys usually elect to play to one side of the field — and for the Saints to keep scoring points at a high rate.
The Saints opened as 7.5-point favorites, where the line remains as of writing (see live odds here), and I expect them to cover.
Teams that open as favorites in Thursday prime-time games are covering 58.3% of the time since 2003 according to Bet Labs. That trend is 8-3-1 so far in 2018.
