The New Orleans Saints (5-9) and Green Bay Packers (10-4) will face off on NFL Monday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Packers are 14-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Packers -14), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Green Bay is a -1100 favorite to win outright, while New Orleans is +700 to pull off the upset.
Let's get to my Saints vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for tonight.
Saints vs. Packers Predictions, Picks
Spread
There's some value in betting the Saints to cover the spread from a numbers perspective.
Over/Under
This is a bet that I see most value in, but it all depends on the field conditions.
My Pick: Saints +14, Over 42.5 (depending on weather)
Saints vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 43.5 -110 / -110 | +700 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 43.5 -110 / -110 | -1100 |
- Saints vs. Packers spread: Packers -14
- Saints vs. Packers over/under: 43.5 total points
- Saints vs. Packers moneyline: Packers -1100, Saints +700
- Saints vs. Packers best bet: Saints +14, Over 42.5
MySaints vs. Packers best bet is on New Orleans to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at ESPN Bet. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers Monday Night Football Preview
After a dominant 2-0 start to the season, the Saints have had a miserable season in large part due to a never-ending list of injuries. While their offensive line has finally returned to better health, they are still without starting quarterback Derek Carr, Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill, top corner Paulson Adebo, and receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave.
On top of those injuries, New Orleans will be without starting running back Alvin Kamara and potentially new number-one wide receiver, Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Spencer Rattler will get the start at quarterback; he showed some flashes in relief of Jake Haener in a near comeback victory over Washington last week.
However, on the season, the results haven't been pretty. Out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Rattler ranks 42nd in EPA+CPOE — ahead of only Anthony Richardson and Drew Lock.
This is a limited offense with a lack of threatening weapons on the outside. I don't expect much success, especially for a dome team playing outdoors in December in freezing conditions.
Meanwhile, the Packers have all of the pieces to make a deep playoff run. They sit at 10-4 on the season, with four losses coming to the Lions (twice), Eagles and Vikings by a combined 20 points.
Green Bay is fairly healthy across the board outside of linebacker Quay Walker (out) and a few starters in the secondary who are listed as questionable — although this isn't a matchup where you worry too much about a potentially shorthanded secondary.
I show a tad bit of value on the Saints from a pure numbers perspective at a price better than +14, but it's not a side I'm running to the window to bet.
I'm most interested in the total if there is snow on the field. That would potentially create an opportunity I've coined a "snowver" and have been betting in both college and the NFL for as long as I can remember.
What constitutes a snowver? A few conditions:
- Snow-covered field (but not too much snow where nobody can move or see)
- No impactful wind
- The total drops
The total has been dropping and it doesn't look like the wind will be material. The only requirement left is the snow, which we won't know until closer to kickoff.
Why is this a thing? Well, with snow on the field, it actually helps the offense as long as there is no wind.
They have distinct advantages in knowing where they need to go on the field, while defensive linemen struggle to get their feet in the ground for a pass rush. It leads to plenty of explosive plays. Tom Brady has talked about how much of an advantage it was for him in these conditions, as it was like the offense was playing at normal speed while the defense was stuck in slow motion.
I'll be monitoring the field conditions as we approach kickoff.
If you're looking for a long shot, take a look at Emanuel Wilson anytime TD +850 and also last TD scored, which FanDuel has at 21-1, but you might be able to find 30-1 or better tomorrow once the market opens up some more.
This might be a good spot to limit Josh Jacobs' touches with a short-week game against the Vikings coming up and the playoffs right around the corner. There's also a pretty good chance Green Bay wins this game in blowout fashion, which should increase the looks for Wilson.
Plus, New Orleans has a miserable run defense, ranking in the bottom five in the league in the following categories:
- Rush Success Rate
- Rush EPA per Play
- Yards per Attempt
- DVOA
The Saints can't stop anybody on the ground, so I think there'll be some opportunities, maybe early but likely late for Wilson.
My Picks:
- Saints +14 (-110)
- Over 42.5 (-115), depending on weather
Saints vs. Packers Betting Trends
Packers vs. Saints Weather
