The New Orleans Saints (2-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) face off on Monday Night Football to close NFL Week 5. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, and the game can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites over the Saints (Chiefs -5.5) after the spread opened at Chiefs -8 before the season. The over/under game total is 43 points scored after it opened at 44.5. Kansas City is -230 on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +190.
The Chiefs improved to 4-0 with a 17-10 win over the Chargers last week. Patrick Mahomes has 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in 4 games this season but is going to be without Rashee Rice for the foreseeable future. The Saints lost 26-24 to the Falcons last week for its second straight defeat. After looking like a potential MVP candidate, Derek Carr has slowed down over the last two weeks and now has 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this season. Alvin Kamara, meanwhile, has scored 7 touchdowns.
Let's get into my Chiefs vs. Saints prediction and my NFL picks for Monday Night Football Week 5.
Chiefs vs. Saints Predictions
Spread
I'm not betting the spread but for those interested, the Chiefs are 18-31-2 (37%) against the spread (ATS) when favored by three or more points since early November 2020, according to our Action Labs data. This game also pops as a play on the Saints in our Luck Rankings, with New Orleans clocking in at 30th and Kansas City in second.
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline and am focused on taking the points with the Saints.
Over/Under
I'm betting on the under, and the best line (at the time of writing) is under 43 (-108) at DraftKings.
Prediction
My pick: Under 43
Chiefs vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Total
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 43 -110 / -110 | +205 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 43 -110 / -110 | -250 |
- Chiefs vs. Saints Spread: Chiefs -5.5
- Chiefs vs. Saints Over/Under: 43 points
- Chiefs vs. Saints Moneyline: Chiefs -250 | Saints +205
- Chiefs vs. Saints Best Bet:Under 43
My Saints vs. Chiefs pick is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs. Saints Preview: Monday Night Football
Last season, Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game. Through four weeks, he's on pace to once again set a career-low mark with 226.0 passing yards per contest.
The dip has nothing to do with Mahomes' talent — if anyone is ever going to go down in history as better than Tom Brady, Mahomes has the best shot — but rather, the talent around him. The defense has been the best it's been his entire career, Tyreek Hill is long gone, and this year in particular, there have been offensive tackle issues.
Mahomes has made it work by embracing underneath throws. His 5.6 intended air yards per attempt is 32nd of 33 qualified passers, and his yards after catch per completion is 6.6, fourth-highest.
That's why losing Rashee Rice is such a massive blow. Despite an average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.2, Rice was able to average nearly 10 yards per target because of his YAC ability. When not throwing to Rice, who has accounted for 25.4% of team targets this season, Mahomes has been far less efficient.
- Mahomes to Rice: 82.8% completion percentage, 9.9 yards per attempt, 6.9% touchdown percentage
- Mahomes to all other receivers: 64.1% completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt, 4.3% touchdown percentage
Against a Chargers defense that ranks No. 3 in overall DVOA and No. 2 in pass defense DVOA, the Chiefs scored 17 points last week.
Things will get no easier against a Saints defense that is No. 2 in overall DVOA, No. 3 in pass-defense DVOA and No. 1 in passer rating allowed (68.0). Last week against the Falcons, the Saints did not allow an offensive touchdown, with Atlanta's scoring coming via a defensive TD, special teams TD and four field goals.
After scoring 40+ in each of the first two weeks, the Saints offense has come back down to earth with 18.0 points per game over the last two weeks. That has coincided with the injury to center Erik McCoy (IR, groin).
With a 95.5 PFF grade, McCoy grades out as the best lineman in football. In this game, the Saints may end up giving a look to Connor McGovern at center just days after claiming him off the Cowboys' practice squad.
An offensive scheme with more motion and play-action seemed to catch defenses off guard the first two weeks, as Derek Carr averaged 11.4 yards per attempt with five touchdowns and one interception. The past two weeks, he's come back down to earth with 6.1 yards per attempt, one touchdown and two interceptions.
Under pressure, Carr's completion percentage drops from 81.9% to 46.4%, per PFF. According to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats, the Chiefs are tied for fifth in pressure rate (30.3%) entering Sunday's games.
No team averages more rush attempts than the Saints' 34.5 per game, and only the Chargers average fewer pass attempts than New Orleans' 25.3 per game.
Unlike previous years, the Chiefs have been stout against the run. They allow the third-fewest yards per carry (3.8) and rank No. 2 in DVOA against the run.
According to our Action Labs data, Primetime unders are 163-109-3 (60%) since 2019, covering by 1.44 points per game and producing a 15% ROI.
Per Action Labs, the under is 56-35-1 (62%) when the Chiefs play at Arrowhead in the Andy Reid era, and 54-29-1 (65%) when the Chiefs are favored at Arrowhead.
Pick: Under 43 (to 41.5)
Betting Trends
- 58% of bets and 65% of the money are on the Saints to cover the spread.
- 82% of bets and 73% of the money are on the over.
- 85% of bets and 92% of the money on the moneyline are on the Chiefs.
How To Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium |
| Date: | Monday, October 6 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / YouTube TV |
Saints vs. Chiefs is scheduled for a 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo., on Monday night. The game is broadcasted live on ESPN and ESPN2 and is streaming on and YouTube TV.
NFL Weather
