The New York Giants (2-9) and Dallas Cowboys (4-7) will face off on NFL Thanksgiving. Kickoff is set for in 4:30 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points with the game total set at 37.5 points scored. The Cowboys are -180 favorites to win outright, while the Giants are +150 to pull off the upset.
The Giants lost 30-7 last week in Tommy DeVito's first start of the season. DeVito only threw for 189 yards against Tampa Bay, most of which came in garbage time. The Cowboys upset the Commanders last week thanks to 2 special-teams touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Let's get into my Cowboys vs Giants predictions and NFL picks.
Giants vs. Cowboys Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 37.5 -110o / -111u | +150 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 37.5 -110o / -111u | -180 |
- Giants vs. Cowboys spread: Cowboys -3.5 (-105)
- Giants vs. Cowboys over/under: 37.5 points scored
- Giants vs. Cowboys moneyline: Cowboys -180, Giants +150
- Giants vs. Cowboys prediction: 1H Under 19.5 (-120)
MyGiants vs. Cowboys pick is on the first-half under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I project this spread as Cowboys -3, but I don't see a big enough edge in getting the extra point with the Giants to bet on them.
Moneyline
With that, I'm also not betting either team's moneyline.
Over/Under
I’ve already locked in my player prop for this game. This prop feels far less like a guessing game compared to trying to attack the side or total here. That said, I do think this matchup leans toward the under.
As I mentioned, the Cowboys are projected to trail 30% less often than their season-long rate, which could significantly alter their offensive approach. This game sets up for them to lean on the run game and adopt a more conservative game plan. Expect several Rico Dowdle runs with Ezekiel Elliott mixing in to drain the clock rather than light up the scoreboard.
The same applies to the Giants, who are projected to trail about 16% less than their season average. This means they likely won’t need to abandon the run early or adopt a highly aggressive approach, keeping them in the game longer. They’ll also lean on their run game, not just because of the matchup but also out of necessity; Chris Hubbard, their 3rd-string left tackle, has been the worst pass blocker in the league this season but has been solid in run blocking.
This sets up for a low-scoring Thanksgiving matchup, especially in the first half. Both sides are likely to feature cautious game plans and focus on avoiding costly mistakes Then, we may see one team pull ahead in the second half, forcing the other into a more aggressive, pass-heavy approach.
Adding to the case for the first-half under is the setting: playing at Jerry’s World around sunset could bring the infamous sun glare into play, making it harder for pass catchers to see the ball. This makes the first half under an especially sneaky angle. Plus, if you hit it, you won’t even have to watch the second half—freeing up time to spend with family!
My Pick: 1H Under 19.5 (-120)
Giants vs. Cowboys NFL Thanksgiving Preview
When the Giants Have the Ball
The Giants are set to start a different quarterback for the third straight game, with Drew Lock expected to replace the injured Tommy DeVito.
A former second-round pick, Lock has shown flashes throughout his six-year career, so there’s some hope he could be an upgrade. However, his recent performances have been dreadful. On his 11 dropbacks this season, he’s averaged just 1.0 yards per attempt; he didn’t fare much better in the preseason, managing only 1.7 yards per attempt on 13 dropbacks. So far, there’s nothing to inspire confidence in Lock’s ability to produce in a Giants uniform.
If Lock struggles, the Giants would turn to Tim Boyle, who has arguably been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league over the last few seasons. This QB carousel has put the Giants' offense in a tough spot.
To make matters worse, the Giants’ offensive line has suffered yet another blow. Left tackle Jermaine Eluemunor has been ruled out with a quad injury, adding to the loss of Andrew Thomas, who’s already on IR. This leaves third-string tackle Chris Hubbard protecting Lock’s blindside.
Hubbard has allowed pressure on 19% of his pass-blocking snaps this season, which ranks last among 82 qualified tackles. With Micah Parsons and the Cowboys' defensive line set to feast on Thanksgiving, it’s unlikely Lock will have a clean pocket for most of the game.
Given their situation, the Giants are bound to lean heavily on talented rookie Tyrone Tracy’s and veteran Devin Singletary’s running game. There’s reason for optimism here, as the Cowboys rank 29th in DVOA against the run. The matchup could become even more favorable if linebacker Eric Kendricks (groin/shoulder) can’t suit up. Kendricks hasn’t practiced on the short week, so his chances of playing, let alone being at 100%, seem slim.
Unlike Tampa Bay, which jumped out to a 23-0 halftime lead last week, the Cowboys offense is less likely to put up points in a hurry. This should allow the Giants to stick with the run game for much of the contest, even if they struggle to score themselves.
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
The Cowboys have trailed 64% of the time this season, the highest rate in the league. However, teams favored by 3 points typically trail just 34% of the time. This suggests the Cowboys could see a vastly different game script than usual, potentially allowing them to play with a lead and lean on the run game.
This game sets up well for Dallas to take some pressure off backup quarterback Cooper Rush and emphasize the ground attack. While that might not sound ideal on paper — given the Cowboys rank 30th in rushing DVOA — they’re facing a Giants defense that has struggled against the run. The Giants rank 17th in rush DVOA but have allowed the 2nd most explosive run plays and give up +1.4 yards over expected per rush, the worst mark in the league (via NextGenStats).
With running back Rico Dowdle running well in recent weeks, the Cowboys should be able to lean on the ground game for much of the contest. Additionally, Dallas is likely to miss starting tight end Jake Ferguson again this week, which could allow the Giants to focus more resources on slowing down wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in the passing game.
There’s a chance wide receiver Brandin Cooks could return to action here, but if he does, he’s likely to be limited and won’t significantly impact this offensive approach. The Cowboys seem well-positioned to focus on the run.
My Pick: 1H Under 19.5 (-120)
Cowboys vs Giants Betting Trends
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