My first instinct when anticipating Eagles vs. Giants odds was to grab Philadelphia, even if the Chiefs were favored by two scores.
It didn’t take long to change my mind when making the actual Eagles vs. Giants pick.
A quick look before the line was even posted showed a significant number of trends and patterns favoring the G-Men. If that wasn’t enough, Brandon Anderson’s must-know NFL Divisional Round trends and Evan Abrams’ weekly betting primer hammered home how history is on the side of Big Blue to – at bare minimum – cover the spread.
All things considered, the Giants are probably the last team the Eagles wanted to face in the NFCDivisional Round. It’s time to delve into why and then my betting pick for Round 3 of this NFC East clash.
Eagles vs Giants Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -385 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +300 |
Eagles vs. Giants Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Giants match up statistically:
Eagles vs. GiantsDVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 10 | 6 | |
| Pass DVOA | 10 | 1 | |
| Rush DVOA | 7 | 21 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 29 | |
| Pass DVOA | 9 | 22 | |
| Rush DVOA | 1 | 32 | |
Let’s start by looking into trends and patterns on a broader scale.
Dating back to 2003, the top seed in each conference covers at a mere 34% clip in the Divisional Round. Not only that, but they cover just 25% of the time when favored by 10 points or less.
Additionally, while it seems counterintuitive, teams who won over 80% of their games in the regular season cover the spread a shockingly low 40% of the time in the playoffs. They’re 38-58 over the entire postseason, and 18-27 in the Divisional Round.
Finally, it’s tough as nails to beat a team three times in one season, which is what Philadelphia aims to do. Road underdogs in this situation win 83% of the time against the spread (ATS) and 66% of the time straight up (SU).
Bet New York vs. Philadelphia at FanDuel
Now, about these particular Giants and Eagles.
New York covered the spread at a historic rate as an underdog this year, going 11-2. That’s the best mark by any team in a single season over the past 20 years.
In addition, the Giants are 4-0 ATS against teams they previously faced (Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota) — bad news for a Philadelphia team that's failed to cover in four straight games dating back to December 11.
Saturday night’s showdown has a good chance of being a low-scoring affair – which typically benefits the underdog – as both teams are elite at running the ball.
Philadelphia is ranked first in rush DVOA (15.4%), per Football Outsiders, and finished fifth in yards per game (148.2). Meanwhile, New York ranks seventh in rush DVOA – though a good amount lower than Philly (4.9%) – and fourth in rushing yards per game (148.2).
Why is this important? Well, over the past 20 years, two teams averaging over 130 yards per game on the ground have squared off in the postseason on four occasions. Each time, the under hit by a whopping 18.6 PPG. That’s flat-out ridiculous, so mark that as another checkmark in New York’s column to cover in a low-scoring game.
Meanwhile, turnovers always play a pivotal role, but it’s even further magnified in the playoffs.
Much of Philadelphia’s success on defense this year was due to its ability to force turnovers. The Eagles ranked fourth in both total takeaways (27) and interceptions (17). On the other hand, New York turned the ball over the second-fewest times in the NFL (16). A main reason for that was Daniel Jones’ improvement protecting the rock, as he had a league-best 1.1% interception rate.
Speaking of Jones, he’s been a revelation this season, establishing himself as a bona fide starting quarterback. However, even dating back to his early days when he was seen as a disappointment, he’s always been a bettor’s dream away from home.
Jones is 18-7 ATS on the road, which is ninth-best among all quarterbacks dating back to 2003. Even more impressive is that he’s 17-5 ATS as a road dog, which is the fifth-best mark over that span.
Betting Picks
If you told me a month ago I’d back Big Blue to cover in a spot like this, I’d have likely laughed in your face.
But there’s nothing funny about the Giants now. They’re loose, playing with house money and on a roll. Even more important is that history is on their side as teams in their exact position cover more often than not.
There’s no doubt the Eagles are the superior team in nearly every way. They pass the eye test 10 out of 10 times compared to New York. However, once again because it can’t be stressed enough, the Giants are covering the spread at a higher clip this year than any team dating back to 2002.
By now it shouldn’t come as a shock to you that I’m backing the Giants to cover. It may end up a case of good process, bad result – but I can always live with that.
Be sure to use our NFL odds page to get up-to-the-second odds, since the line appears to be moving toward Giants +8.
Pick: Giants +7.5 | Bet to +6.5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
