Jets vs Dolphins Prediction: NFL Week 15 Odds, Preview
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -380 |
My NFL pick for this game is on the road underdog. The latest Jets vs Dolphins odds for NFL Week 15 have Miami laying 9 points on the spread with a game total over/under that sits at 36.5.
Miami got the better of New York in the Black Friday game, but I believe circumstances have changed and the Jets have a chance of being much more competitive this time around. The Dolphins, of course, are coming off a stunning loss to the Titans on Monday Night Football. As for the Jets, they routed the Texans and Zach Wilson (!) was awarded AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts.
Let's dive into my game preview for this AFC East rivalry game and make a Jets vs Dolphins prediction.
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Jets vs Dolphins Prediction
Jets vs. Dolphins Preview
Coming off a short week in which they lost in devastating fashion, the Dolphins are dealing with a plethora of injuries at a very inconvenient time of the season.
The Dolphins head into this divisional matchup needing a win to improve their chances of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the AFC East. Miami's schedule gets significantly harder over the next couple of weeks, so it will be important for them to rebound as the streaking Bills lurk in the shadows.
The Jets are on their last legs as they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. Aaron Rodgers’ return from injury is still uncertain, but the Jets have until next Wednesday to decide whether he will be activated this season.
When these two teams matched up on Black Friday, Miami took care of business easily with a 34-13 victory that never felt close. However, that game had Tim Boyle under center for New York.
Headlining the Dolphins' injury report is Tyreek Hill, who is questionable to play in Week 15. He injured his ankle on Monday and he seemed to be limited as he was in and out of the lineup throughout the night and didn’t put up his usual numbers. I think Hill will end up playing in some capacity, but it remains to be seen what shape he will be in.
Left tackle Terron Armstead (knee/ankle) and safety Jevon Holland (knees) both sat out Monday night’s contest and remain questionable. The Dolphins also lost center Connor Williams for the year while offensive linemen Liam Eichenberg (calf) and Austin Jackson (oblique) are both listed as questionable. Guard Robert Hunt (hamstring) has already been ruled out, leaving the Dolphins plenty banged up along the offensive line.
The other key injury designations for Miami are running back De’Von Achane (toe), cornerback Xavien Howard (hip) and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (oblique). These names are all largely important and with them less than 100%, the Dolphins' play will likely suffer.
Jets vs. Dolphins Picks | FanDuel
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Weather will likely be a factor in this matchup. The forecast is currently calling for a chance of rain (20%-60%) with high sustained winds.
According to AccuWeather and local news affiliate WSVN, winds will average approximately 20-25 mph with gusts exceeding up to 35 mph. Typically 15-plus mph winds are the point at which totals are affected.
The Jets have struggled offensively all season and are back to Zach Wilson under center. This worked out for the better last weekend as the Jets routed the Texans and Wilson was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.
Efficiency wise, Wilson wasn’t amazing — averaging 0.08 EPA per play — but that is one of the best marks of his NFL career. Wilson's goal is to not be a disaster in order for New York's elite defense to keep the team competitive.
New York’s defense has single-handedly kept the Jets in the playoff hunt. They rank fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate allowed. This unit is good against both the run and the pass, ranking sixth in passing success rate and fourth against the run.
The Jets have held their opponent under 20 points in seven games this season. There have been some other games where their opponent has pulled away — typically when the offense falters.
The Jets rank in the top 11 in every PFF unit ranking on the defensive side of the ball. They rank second in defense overall, first in coverage grade, sixth in tackling, seventh in pass rush grade and 11th in run defense grade. They're also third in ESPN’s run stuff win rate and they have the second-highest pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference.
Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction
I believe the Dolphins are at their most vulnerable right now. They have been playing some of their worst football of the season and are clinging for dear life in the AFC East. The injury report for this team is no joke.
New York’s offense still isn’t great but it has more life with Zach Wilson at QB. In a game with high winds and potential rain, I believe that the Jets will be able to muck things up enough to keep it close and potentially win outright.
At +9.5, I like the Jets in what could be a low-scoring affair. Look for the Jets' defensive line to wreak havoc on Miami’s patchwork offensive line. I would bet to Jets +7.5.
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