Jets vs Giants Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 35 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 35 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Here's everything you need to know about the latest Jets vs. Giants odds with an expert pick and prediction for this Week 8 clash between New York rivals.
The Jets are three-point favorites at most sportsbooks. At bet365, the over/under is 35 total points scored. The Jets are -170 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Giants are +150 underdogs.
Laying points with Zach Wilson isn't fun, but the rest of the advantages for the Jets across the field and especially on defense leaves this line a half tick short.
Now, let's break down the matchup and make our Jets-Giants pick.
Jets vs. Giants
Matchup Analysis
The line should be over a field goal given the significant mismatch for the Jets in the trenches here. The Jets are a top-five coverage unit, per PFF, and a top-half unit in pass rush win rate. It's really difficult to run the ball on this defensive front, and the Jets had the extra prep and rest to get their secondary healthy through the bye week.
The Jets have played the toughest schedule of QBs in the entire NFL — Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. Despite this tough schedule, the Jets are 10th in success rate and 12th in EPA per play allowed. It's an elite unit overall and should feast as the schedule lightens up in the second half and they get matchups with some of the worst offenses going forward.
The major plus for the Giants offense has been Taylor's sack avoidance, but this offensive line is still giving up pressures at an alarming rate compared to before Daniel Jones' injury. Taylor has taken just eight sacks taken on 43 pressured dropbacks. Given that Jones was sacked on 30.8% of his pressured dropbacks, it wasn't sustainable to be a competent offense with him at those rates.
Taylor is the best option right now, but the real reason the Giants have covered two straight and won against Washington has been the improved defense. A deeper look at the numbers would suggest there's still a lot of holes for the Jets to exploit.
Bet New York vs. New York at FanDuel
By success rate and EPA allowed, the Giants are a bottom five run defense in the NFL. They're not great on a play to play basis and will allow explosives if you test them enough. The Jets run offense hasn't been good, but there's a major gap between the production of washed up Dalvin Cook and the increasingly healthy Breece Hall.
Hall is No. 1 in the NFL in rush yards over expected and RYOE per carry. Compare this to Cook, who has 39 carries for 109 yards and averaged just 2.8 per carry. He's seen his share of carries consistently decline on a week-to-week basis. Hall is getting healthier and his ability to break one or two big runs could be the difference given that neither offense has been successful on a play-to-play basis running the ball.
PFF also grades the Giants as the 26th best coverage unit in the NFL. We saw Taylor have success against the Bills (bottom 10 DVOA defense post injuries) and the Commanders (27th in EPA Pass defense), but he'll have a much bigger challenge against a top five Jets defensive secondary.
Jets vs. Giants
Betting Picks & Predictions
Between this total and the Falcons-Titans game, it's quite rare to see two October totals with perfectly good weather close below 37. The Jets have advantages all over the field except quarterback, where it's more of a wash as Wilson has had somewhat improved play — from a very low bar — in the last month.
I'd lay up to -3 on the Jets to move above .500 on Sunday.
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