Bills vs Jets Odds
The rematch!
As we look for a Bills vs Jets pick in Week 14, we recall the first meeting that saw New York pull off an upset at home. Buffalo lost the following week in the game of the season against the Vikings. Despite that, the Bills remained Super Bowl favorites, although Josh Allen futures faded a bit. Buffalo seems to be back after a dominant performance against the Patriots in New England after a two-week residency in Detroit.
New York also had to go down before coming back up. New York bookended its win over Buffalo with two losses to the Patriots, the latter of which came on a walk-off punt-return touchdown. We did have the Patriots -3.5 in that game, so it helped soften the blow there for Jets fans — but I was so salty.
While I disagree with how it went down, Zach Wilson had to get benched after his postgame rhetoric following the 10-3 loss to New England. Now, we're onto Mike "The White Lotus" White (I'm trying this out and hoping it catches steam). Playing against Chicago is exactly what White needed last week since anyone with an arm could tear that depleted defense up. Unfortunately, New York followed that with a loss to the Vikings that it should have won.
So, will the Jets bounce back against the Super Bowl favorites in a revenge spot? Let's dig in.
Bills vs Jets Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Jets match up statistically:
Bills vs Jets DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 19 | 4 | |
| Pass DVOA | 23 | 7 | |
| Rush DVOA | 12 | 3 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 4 | 5 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 5 | |
| Rush DVOA | 17 | 11 | |
We have two high-profile units on the field here. I usually start with the Jets, so how about Allen's squad leading us off here in terms of strengths and weaknesses?
Hold your phone, because Allen has a cannon. He also runs like it's his last game on earth, and that's the kind of quarterback who will do anything to win (and perhaps become seriously hurt, but he seems invincible).
Stefon Diggs is having one of his best seasons yet, demonstrating serious WR1 vibes and recently being put into Pro Football Focus' All-Pro starting roster. According to FootballOutsiders, he's the best wide receiver in the game right now, ranking number one in defense-adjusted yards above replacement, exactly one yard better than Tyreek Hill. That's a fun stat to throw at your group chat to stir up the pot.
Bet New York vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
The most surprising, yet incredibly impressive, group on the field is Buffalo's number four ranked defense. This unit has been widely respected in the market, yet seemingly underperformed against a few opponents. Digging deeper into those matchups, however, tells us that this defense is just fine.
Buffalo gave up 33 to an extremely high-powered Vikings, but those last two touchdowns could justifiably be classified as lucky. After that game, the Bills had effectively 48 hours to prep for Cleveland and then played on Thanksgiving in Detroit. Outside of these outlier scenarios, their defense has been stout.
Against New England last week, Buffalo won thanks to its run game and defense. You're not going to put up wildly impressive passing stats against the Pats given their star cornerbacks, but Buffalo absolutely dominated that second half.
OK, enough about Goliath. Let's talk David a bit.
We love White. He takes what the defense gives him and throws the ball wisely. He might not be the Jets' long-term answer, but he's a solution they'll try to ride into the playoffs. This game just happens to be a major hurdle on that path.
The Jets offense out-gained Minnesota by 200 yards, and there were numerous events in the game that resulted in a heartbreaking loss. Whether it was the unlucky pick or three goal-to-go drives that garnered just six points, New York blew that game.
It's hard to stop Minnesota's explosive offense, but the Jets shut that unit down after halftime. You have to feel good about what the fifth-ranked defense is doing — and hopefully will continue to do.
The key to this game will be getting pressure on Allen to contain him. If the Jets can control the clock and get a few explosive plays, likely courtesy of Garrett Wilson, this game is absolutely winnable. But containing Allen, Diggs and a resurgent running game featuring James Cook is easier said than done.
So, what's the play?
Betting Picks
If you've been reading my Jets previews this season, you'll know I like to make projections and see how similar opponents perform in various situations.
The Bills were 10.5-point favorites on the road in New York, and we actually made a play on Buffalo due to a difference in my projection vs. the market. I made the game around Bills -12, feeling the Bills would eat up Wilson.
So, we're giving Buffalo less credit now with Mike White at the helm? I do agree that there should be some narrowing of the gap, but that is quite the statement.
I personally have this spread projected at 11.2. Given the Jets' tendency to over perform due to an incredible defense and solid coaching by Robert Saleh, I'm going to lay off the side.
That said, I do believe there is value in the total.
As stated above, we have two of the top-five defenses in the league here, both of which limit explosive plays due to high-performing secondaries and defensive lines. We know Von Miller is out, but I actually think that helps the total here since it gives the Jets more time with the ball. Limiting Allen's time with the ball is the key to this under hitting.
If we look at the Bills as favorites, they've gone under when they control the ball on the ground and kill the clock. The most relevant examples are in the division, with Buffalo's outcomes against the Patriots and Jets. In order to win this game, the Bills will need to pound the ball, whether that is through Cook or Allen is up to them.
I see this playing out similarly to the Patriots game and do not expect the Jets to gain the 174 rushing yards that led them to victory. This has the makings of a 24-14 game, with three points of margin on either side
Pick: Under 43.5 |
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