The New York Jets (3-9) and Miami Dolphins (5-7) will face off in NFL Week 14 at 1 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The game will be live on CBS and can be streamed on Paramount+ and YouTube TV.
The Dolphins are favored by 6 points with the game total set at 45 points scored. The Dolphins are -275 favorites to win outright, while the Jets are +225 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs Jets prediction and NFL picks.
The Jets lost 26-21 to the Seahawks last week. Aaron Rodgers threw for 185 yards last week and averaged 4.7 yards per attempt. The Dolphins lost 30-17 to the Packers last week and snapped their 3-game winning streak. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns in defeat.
Jets vs. Dolphins Prediction
Over/Under Pick
I like the full-game under, but I think there's more value on the first-half spread.
As I break down below, these teams are more efficient in the second half so I'll split up the total.
My Pick: 1H Under 22.5
Jets vs. Dolphins Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +225 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -275 |
- Jets vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins -6
- Jets vs. Dolphins over/under: 45 points scored
- Jets vs. Dolphins moneyline: Dolphins -275, Jets +225
- Jets vs. Dolphins best bet: 1H Under 22.5
MyJets vs. Dolphins best bet is on the first-half under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
Between my lookahead bets and hot reads on Sunday night, you can tell I have a type when it comes to my picks at this time of year.
Show me a divisional matchup this late in the season, and chances are I’ll have an under for you.
This game’s total actually went up from 44.5 to 45.5, but I’m going against that movement, specifically in the first half.
The Dolphins went from scoring 34 points in back-to-back home games to scoring half of that in Green Bay last week. Well, they return home here and will hope that the offense comes back with them.
The Dolphins rank 14th in DVOA on offense and 11th defensively with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Obviously, the offense is better with its QB1, but the defense has performed better when he’s active, as well.
Divisional under in Week 14 or later are 47-40 (56%), and they’re slightly up to 57% when the home team is favored by seven or more points. Add in winds of 12 mph or greater, we’re up to 61% on the under since 2021.
So, why the first half specifically?
Both the Jets and Dolphins offenses rank in the bottom five in DVOA (Dolphins are surprisingly 31st) and are around the league average in the second half.
The Dolphins defense is 12th in the first half but 22nd in the second half, which helps this bet. The Jets are also averaging 12 points per game in the first half while Miami is at 8.8.
Dolphins games this season are averaging 19.3 points per first half, and it’s only up to 20.9 when Tagovailoa is under center. I like the under, but I like the first-half under most.
My Pick: 1H Under 22.5
Dolphins vs. Jets Betting Trends
NFL Weather
