Since the dawn of betting, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines and more all offer the same appeal. Since the 2018 legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So now, we have Jets vs. Patriots parlay picks tonight.
I'll be the first to tell you that NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets. Fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though, and it's nice to dream of a big win — just like lottery tickets.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," in which he tries to hit one anytime touchdown parlay at +1800 odds or better to pay off a whole season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Jets vs. Patriots Monday Night Football parlay built on DraftKings.
Jets vs. Patriots Parlay Picks
- Under 38.5 (-105)
- Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
- Jacoby Brissett Under 162.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Garret Wilson Anytime TD (+140)
Full Jets vs. Patriots Parlay Odds: +1700 | $10 Bet Wins $170
Under 38.5 (-105)
After some relatively fun weekday matchups to start the year, we're now back to the NFL tradition of putting the sloppiest possible game on an island. The Jets and Patriots have combined to average fewer than 20 points per game this year — and that qualifies as a massive pleasant surprise for New England.
The only thing that makes games like this tolerable is holding a ticket on the under, so that's how we're starting our parlay. The total has already dropped four points from open, which is a good sign what side sharp bettors were taking. Of course, we're getting a worse number than those bettors, but I still like it.
The Jets' most consistent production so far has come through the running game, but New England ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the rush so far this year.
On the other side, the Jets rank third in DVOA against the pass and are six-point favorites. That gives New England little hope of closing the gap if it falls behind, while the Jets will be able to play slow-paced, ball-control football.
Breece Hall Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Breece Hall has cleared this number in both Jets games so far and has seen 14 total targets through two weeks. Encouragingly, he was actually involved more in the passing game in the Jets win than their loss, which bodes well if this one follows the likely game script.
Aaron Rodgers has been fixated on Hall and Garrett Wilson early in the season, with those two combining for 31 targets on 51 Rodgers' passing attempts through two weeks. It took until the third quarter of the Jets' Week 1 game for a player other than Hall or Wilson to record a rush or reception.
That should continue here. Especially if the Patriots bottle up Hall on the ground, New York will want to get him the ball in other ways. We also get a nice boost to the odds by pairing a positive player prop with the under.
Jacoby Brissett Under 162.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Brissett has passing yardage totals of 149 and 121 this season despite facing far worse passing defenses than the Jets. That's part one of the case for the under here.
The other is the Jets extremely slow pace offensively. Aaron Rodgers is notorious for using every second of the play clock, and that's likely to continue in a game they should be in control of.
While this one doesn't give us any "bonus juice" on the parlay, it's too good to pass up in a game we're banking on going to the under anyway.
These three picks bring the total parlay to +460, which I'll be taking a shot at before adding one more leg for an even juicier option.
Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+140)
Obviously, betting on the under means there will be fewer touchdowns, so we're getting way better odds by including an anytime TD prop in the parlay. The scenario I've laid out here features the Jets getting out to an early lead, playing slowly and locking down the Patriots' passing attack. How they get to that lead is the crucial point here.
Given the Patriots strengths against the run, it's more likely that New York builds its lead through the air. That means we target Wilson, who has a ridiculous 33.3% target share to start the year.
We're also getting much better combined odds by including Wilson over Hall since we already took his receptions over. That makes this the better play when considering the parlay as a whole.
As a bonus, adding the Jets moneyline brings the total odds to an even better +2200. If you wanted to add another leg, that addition makes a lot of sense with the rest of these picks.
Full Jets vs. Patriots Parlay Odds: +1700 | $10 Bet Wins $170
