The New York Jets (2-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) will face off tonight on NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The game will be broadcast live on NBC and can be streamed on platforms like Peacock and YouTube TV.
The Jets are consensus 2.5-point favorites over the Steelers (Jets -2.5), while the game total is set at 40 points. The Jets are -150 on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is +126 to pull off the upset. The spread opened at Jets -1 and has been bet up to Jets -2.5.
The Jets lost 23-20 last week to the Bills in their first game after former head coach Robert Saleh was fired. Wide receiver Davante Adams, who has 18 catches for 209 yards in 3 games this season, is expected to make his Jets debut after being acquired in a trade. The Steelers won 32-13 against the Raiders but are benching quarterback Justin Fields in favor of Russell Wilson.
Let's get into my Jets vs. Steelers predictions and my NFL picks for Week 7 Sunday.
Jets vs. Steelers Picks and Predictions
Prediction
Jets to beat the Steelers (Bet Jets moneyline to -170)
My Steelers vs. Jets best bet is on New York to win outright, with the best moneyline odds currently available at ESPN BET. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
I like the Jets here, but when the spread is less than a field goal, I prefer to play the short moneyline.
Moneyline
While the Steelers offense has gone from Justin Fields to an immobile Russell Wilson, New York has a new play-caller and just acquired one of the best wide receivers in the NFL.
My best bet is the Jets moneyline, and I would play New York up to -170.
Over/Under
I have no bet for this game total. For those interested, primetime unders since 2019 are 160-111-3 (60%) entering Week 7, according to our Action Labs data.
My pick: Jets moneyline (Bet to -170)
Jets vs. Steelers Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 40 -108o / -112u | -155 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +102 | 40 -108o / -112u | +130 |
- Jets vs. Steelers spread: Jets -2.5
- Jets vs. Steelers over/under: 40 points
- Jets vs. Steelers moneyline: Jets -150, Steelers +126
- Jets vs. Steelers best bet: Jets moneyline (Bet to -170)
Jets vs. Steelers Betting Trends to Know
- 57% of bets and 64% of the money are on the Jets to cover the spread.
- 66% of bets and 66% of the money are on the over.
- 47% of bets and 62% of the money on the moneyline are on the Steelers to win.
Jets vs. Steelers Start Time, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, Oct. 20 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC / Peacock and YouTube TV |
Steelers vs. Jets is scheduled for an 8:20 p.m. ET start time, live from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA, on Sunday night. The game is broadcast live by NBC and is streaming on Peacock and YouTube TV.
Jets vs. Steelers NFL Sunday Night Football Week 7
While the Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields debate is raging, quarterback is arguably the least of the Steelers' worries right now.
In Week 4, the Steelers lost right guard James Daniels to an Achilles injury. With a 92.9 PFF grade, Daniels grades out as the best guard in football this season. The last week, the Steelers lost rookie center Zach Frazier to an ankle injury. With an 82.2 PFF grade, Frazier grades out as the fourth-best center in football.
Losing two top-tier interior linemen will be an issue going against Quinnen Williams and a Jets defense that ranks tied for fifth in pressure rate (28.9%, according to PFR). When the Jets have generated pressure, they are allowing a 41.5% completion rate of 4.0 YPA per FTN.
In that context, the move to the less mobile Wilson would be a head-scratcher. The argument for Wilson is that he won't miss as many opportunities to throw to open receivers but regardless of who is behind center, the Steelers' lackluster receiving corps is unlikely to find itself open very often against Sauce Gardner and company.
This is pure speculation on my part, but I can't help but wonder if Tomlin is purposely starting Wilson against the toughest defense the Steelers will have faced so that he has the necessary ammo to commit to Fields for the rest of the season if Wilson struggles. Last week against the Raiders, next week against the Giants or Week 10 coming out of the bye against the Commanders all profile as far easier spots for a quarterback making his first start with a new team.
On the other side of the ball, the addition of Davante Adams to the Jets fluttering offense is big. Rodgers' old buddy Allen Lazard was arguably the worst receiver in football last season without Rodgers, but he's averaging a healthy 4.3 catches and 59 yards per game while tying for the league lead in touchdown receptions with five. If Lazard is capable of that, imagine what Adams will do now that he's reunited with Rodgers.
Adams, Lazard and Garrett Wilson give the Jets three legitimate threats at wide receiver, which is big against a Joey Porter-led Steelers secondary that's capable of shutting down one wide receiver (No. 3 in DVOA vs. WR1s) but not multiple (No. 19 vs. WR2s and No. 28 vs. WR3s).
Adams bumping Mike Williams out of the starting lineup is also an addition by subtraction for the Jets. Williams has had great moments in this league, but his lack of chemistry with Rodgers contributed to two backbreaking interceptions over the last two weeks. Per PFF, Rodgers has a 47.1 passer rating with no touchdowns and two interceptions when targeting Williams this season.
The Steelers also struggle against passes to running backs, ranking No. 30 in DVOA, which can be exploited by Breece Hall, who is second among running backs with 204 receiving yards and is coming off a season-high 56 receiving yards last week.
New Jets offensive coordinator Todd Downing is underwhelming, but he looks like Bill Walsh compared to Nathaniel Hackett. In his first game as the Jets' new OC, Rodgers had season highs in the use of pre-snap motion (44.7%) and play-action (31.4%). Rodgers posted 9.9 yards per attempt using motion and 11.9 using play action — and that was without Adams in tow.
The Steelers' pass defense allows 7.5 yards per attempt and 0.09 Expected Points Added per dropback (EPA/DB) against play-action compared to 7.0 and 0.05 on non-play-action, according to FTN. Against motion, they allow 7.3 yards per attempt and 0.12 EPA/DB compared to 7.0 and 0.02 on non-motion.
Though they have faced an easy schedule, the Steelers pass defense is probably more formidable than their 15th-place ranking in DVOA suggests. Pittsburgh ranks only 20th in pressure rate (20.4%), but I'd expect it to get a few hits on Rodgers that he could potentially knock the near-41-year-old passer out of the game. However, a more mobile Tyrod Taylor who — like Rodgers — is one of the least-turnover-prone quarterbacks in NFL history (1.7% career INT rate, third all-time) throwing to an all-star cast of skill players wouldn't be the worst thing to fall back on.
That said, Rodgers should start this game and history says the Jets tailspin won't continue if he does. Per our Action Labs data, when Rodgers starts a game when his team is coming off of a loss and the line is -6 or shorter, his team is 29-16 ATS, covering by 3.5 points per game.
Across all games, Rodgers' teams are 47-25 (65%) SU coming off a loss in his starts, winning by 6.8 points per game.
Pick: Jets -125 (to -170)
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