Seahawks vs Jets Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -114 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | +106 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -106 | 43.5 -105o / -115u | -124 |
We look for a Seahawks vs Jets pick on Sunday afternoon in a matchup of two teams clinging to their playoff hopes.
This is a surprisingly fun and important game between two teams that theoretically had no business being here this season. Geno Smith vs. his old squad is a great storyline given his success this year (likely the Comeback Player of the Year), but we have playoff implications on the line, too.
If the Seahawks win out, they have about a 66% chance of making the playoffs. They need to win out and get help from the Browns, Vikings and Colts, which is a lot to ask.
For the Jets, their route is more straightforward: win out and get one Patriots loss. The latter would've been much more likely if Tua Tagovailoa played this week, but the Pats do go to Buffalo in Week 18, with the Bills likely playing for the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs would have to lose to the Broncos for that not to be the case, and I feel pretty confident in that not happening.
These two squads are also coming into the game exceptionally cold. They're both 1-6 in their last seven games, both having lost two games at home as favorites. The playoff berths both teams are chasing would have been much less difficult if they played to market expectation, yet here we are.
Quarterback "revenge" vs. the team that drafted him, playoffs on the line, yet both teams playing poorly. Who we got? Let's check the Seahawks vs Jets odds.
Seahawks vs Jets Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Seahawks and Jets match up statistically:
Seahawks vs Jets DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 26 | |
| Pass DVOA | 23 | 21 | |
| Rush DVOA | 20 | 25 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 12 | 6 | |
| Pass DVOA | 9 | 6 | |
| Rush DVOA | 23 | 8 | |
The Jets come into this contest as short favorites in one of the toughest stadiums to play in. I'm not sure if Chris Pratt still goes to games, but I picture a lot of flag-waving superfans like him going off.
Some handicappers and prognosticators like to read into point spreads and label them as strong or trap lines. The only time it makes sense to read into lines is if there are potential injuries, and the line either confirms or denies that.
For this game, I imagine people think this indicates strength toward the Jets, yet when looking at the offensive and defensive stats, it's not illogical whatsoever. The best unit on the field in this game is the Jets defense, and I think Football Outsiders is even underrating this squad. New York has a massive edge on defense, and the offense should have no problem moving the ball.
In looking at the matchup against Seattle's offense, let's see how the Jets perform against good offensive teams. Buffalo, Detroit and Jacksonville are top-10 teams who the Jets have played recently, yet they've allowed 20 or fewer points against each of them (Buffalo twice). Furthermore, since Week 3, they have allowed more than 20 points just twice. That's two out of 12 games, and they haven't had a cupcake schedule.
Bet New York vs. Seattle at FanDuel
Let's dive into the past seven games a bit more. The Jets have played on the road against New England, Buffalo and Minnesota, and at home against two scorching hot teams in Detroit and Jacksonville. That's not an easy schedule, and we were expected to win three out of those seven games.
If it wasn't for a Justin Fields injury, this could have been an incredibly ugly stretch for New York. Again, the defense played well, yet the Jets did not win the games they were favored in because of Zach Wilson.
The only issue or question mark is how Mike White will play, and what his play means to the Jets' team rating. We know that he's better than Wilson, but he's only started a few games for New York, which limits our ability to accurately forecast the Jets' expected performance.
Regardless, even White with a few broken ribs should limit those wildly frustrating turnovers by Wilson and give Mike LaFleur the ability to establish the run and sustain drives against a bottom five unit.
Seattle, on other hand, has been a surprise story that hasn't been sustainable. The Seahawks' offense certainly is performing above expectations and is a top-10ish unit, but we've seen a regression in the back half of the season.
Seattle has lost to Carolina, Las Vegas and barely beat the Rams. Looking at their entire season, the Seahawks have really only beaten bad teams at home — Denver and Arizona. They did beat the Giants, so we can give them that (again, they're not a bad team), but their other victories were against the Lions and Chargers early in the season (different teams then), and the Rams on the road. It's not wildly impressive, and the point spread this week reflects those strength of schedule and overall team ratings.
Betting Picks
As per usual, I like to make actual projections between the two teams. This week I have the Jets as a 1.6-point favorite over the Seahawks in Seattle, so nothing notable in terms of a difference.
This intuitively makes sense. As the season goes on, everyone has the same data besides injury concerns. Vegas and data-based handicappers like myself will align most of the time later in the season.
What I do like here is how Seattle performs at home against teams with an offensive pulse, i.e. not a bottom five offensive team like Denver or Arizona. The Seahawks allowed 30+ to Carolina and Las Vegas, and while the Jets are not Vegas, they are somewhere in between the two squads.
Furthermore, Seattle has not put up more than 20 points against good defenses recently (San Francisco, Tampa Bay), and most recently struggled against Kansas City. I do not see the offense suddenly turning things around again against one of the best defenses and cornerback duos in the league. Seattle excels in passing offense, so this will be tough, especially if Tyler Lockett isn't 100%.
Despite the Jets' recent struggles, they have a likely uptick in their performance this weekend. I'm expecting 24+ points from the Jets with a rejuvenated offense led by White again, and 17-20 from Seattle. Again, still an upper-echelon offensive squad, but they are facing a top three defense here.
Jets 27, Seattle 17. Give me New York along with a half-unit play on the over.
Pick: Jets -1.5 or Better (also half-unit on Over 42.5) |
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