NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers are on my mind all the time. I think about this betting market constantly with ways to make profit while trying to identify impact players or ones to to completely avoid.
Although the 2021 season can still feel fresh in some bettors’ minds, it may feel fuzzy by some to recall exactly how certain touchdown trends played out for certain players and if it was a profitable endeavor. Even parsing through the info out of training camp can sometimes be misleading for what we'll see in the opening month of the 2022 season.
With my speciality focusing on the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market, I’ve put together notes, stats, facts and observations for all 32 NFL teams to help bettors get up to speed.
This will show certain players I’m monitoring to see how their odds correlate compared to last season and if there’s players we should be targeting early for the 2022 regular season or (if applicable) avoiding altogether.
Through Weeks 1-4 over the past two seasons (eight games), Kyler Murray has seven rushing touchdowns. His ATD odds ranged between +120 to +140 in those games.
Wide receiver Antoine Wesley will likely get more reps early with DeAndre Hopkins' suspension. He caught three TDs on nine targets between Weeks 15 and 16 when Hopkins was out. In Week 15, his ATD odds hovered around +550, and they were +350 in Week 16.
James Connor led the Cardinals in ATD profit last season at +6.5U.
In 77 career games, Marcus Mariota only has 13 rushing touchdowns. His last full season as a starter was 2018, when he had two rushing TD on seven red-zone carries. Week 1 (Saints) and Week 2 (Rams) are not desirable matchups for Mariota ATD props.
Kyle Pitts led the Falcons in red-zone targets but only caught one TD in 2021.
The Falcons were one of four teams not to have a profitable overall ATD in 2021 (Falcons, Texans, Jaguars and Saints).
QB Lamar Jackson finished 2021 with only two rushing TDs despite being third in NFL in RZ rushing attempts by QBs. Jackson's ATD odds will typically range from -120 to +120 in any game he starts.
Avoid tight end Mark Andrews in the first four weeks of the season. Three of those four matchups vs teams that ranked in top-five in TDs allowed to TE in 2021 (Dolphins, Patriots, Bills).
In his career, Andrews has scored eight TDs in nine games vs the Browns. Aim to bet Andrews if ATD odds are above +150 in the first matchup with CLE in Week 7.
WR Gabriel Davis was third on the Bills in receiving TDs in 2021 with six. He finished as the most profitable Bills ATD scorer last season and was sixth overall in total ATD profits in 2021 (+9.2U)
Despite having a career-high in rushing attempts, red-zone rushing attempts, rushing yards in 2021, QB Josh Allen had his fewest rushing touchdowns in a season in 2021 with six.
WR Isaiah McKenzie could see additional snaps/opportunities in 2021 with the departure of Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders. However, do not bet McKenzie ATD at +250 or lower.
If Baker Mayfield is the starting QB, forget about betting his ATD. He only has five rushing TD in 60 career games, with 11 red-zone rushing attempts in that span.
Monitor TE Tommy Tremble for ATD props. Ten of Mayfield’s 17 passing TDs In 2021 were to the TE position, and 36% of his career passing TDs have gone to tight ends.
DJ Moore has historically played his best vs. the Saints. In seven career games against New Orleans, Moore has 32 catches, 521 yards and five TDs. Panthers face Saints in Week 3.
QB Justin Fields only had two rushing TD and three red-zone carries in 12 games last season, despite being fifth among all QB in total rushing attempts. His ATD odds last season were above +200 in any game he started.
TE Cole Kmet is expected to be a full-time starter but needs to prove being a red-zone scoring threat. Kmet led the Bears with 13 red-zone targets in 2021 but caught no touchdowns. He has two TDs in 33 career games played.
The only Bears player who was a profitable ATD scorer in 2021 was Jimmy Graham at +7.5U. He has since retired.
The Bengals had two players in the top-20 in ATD profits last season: RB Joe Mixon (+7.1U) scored 16 TDs, and WR Ja’Marr Chase (+6.5U) had 13 TDs in 2021.
In 50 red-zone rushing attempts by the Bengals in 2021, QB Joe Burrow only had three rushes. Burrow has scored five TDs in 26 regular-season games.
Although TE Hayden Hurst has more career touchdowns (12 TDs in 57 career games), TE Drew Sample (one TD in 42 career games) has led all Bengals TEs in snaps since the start of 2020 season.
When picking between RB Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt, go with Hunt. In 2021, Hunt finished with five TD in eight games while Chubb finished with nine in 14 games. Of those 14 games, Chubb has minus odds to score a TD in all but one game, while Hunt had plus odds in six of eight games.
Despite only having four touchdowns in 2021, David Njoku was the most profitable ATD scorer for the Browns.
WR ATD odds will likely be inflated with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Avoid Browns WRs as Brissett only has 36 passing TDs in 60 career games, including five passing TDs in 2021 in five starts with the Dolphins.
In QB Dak Prescott’s first three NFL seasons, he had a combined 18 rushing touchdowns in 48 games. In 2021, Prescott only scored once in 16 games and had +240 odds against Atlanta. He was never below +300 in any other start in '21.
WR3 in this offense is a darling for ATD profits in recent years. Cedrick Wilson led the Cowboys in ATD profits last season with +6.5U on six TD in 16 games. Rookie Jalen Tolbert is expected to fill that role and will likely be +300 or more for ATD odds every week.
Tony Pollard only had 17 red-zone carries to Ezekiel Elliot’s 42 in 2021. Both finished with negative profits as ATD scorers.
Russell Wilson may have the ability, but he has not overall been a profitable ATD scorer. Wilson had a career-low 42 rushing attempts in 2021 despite only missing three games. Only 23 TDs scored in 128 career games. Avoid the Russ ATD trap!
In 26 career games, WR Jerry Jeudy only has three receiving touchdowns. With Wilson, expect Jeudy and Courtland Sutton to each have +120 to +175 odds for ATD each week in 2022.
Tim Patrick led the team in ATD profits in 2021 at +3.5U in 16 games. He was injured in training camp, though, and will miss the entire 2022 season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and DJ Chark will be the popular wide receivers to bet early in the season, but monitor WR Quintez Cephus. Prior to breaking his collarbone in 2021, he led Lions WR with 15 catches for 204 yards and two touchdowns and finished with +5.5U in profit.
D’Andre Swift was ninth overall in red-zone targets for running backs in 2021 with 10. Only TJ Hockenson had more red-zone targets for the Lions with 11.
After rushing for 10 touchdowns in his previous 69 career games, QB Jared Goff finished with a big ol' zero rushing TDs in 2021 and one red-zone carry. Only bet ATD if +1000 or more.
WR Allen Lazard is tabbed as WR1 in this offense and finished 2021 as the most profitable ATD scorer for the Packers (+6.6U)
Avoid betting WR Sammy Watkins for ATD props. Although he’s scored 34 TDs in 99 career games, he’s only scored six TDs in his last 37.
If TE Robert Tonyan is forced to miss time to start the 2022 season, consider TE Josiah Deguara as an alternate for ATD props. Deguara assumed the lead pass-catching role when Tonyan went down and led Packers TEs in snaps and targets from Week 10 onward.
RB Marlon Mack has a “Revenge Game” opportunity in Week 1. He faces his former team, the Indianapolis Colts. Starting Texans RBs typically had ATD odds above +250 for all but one game in 2021.
WR Brandin Cooks is a great ATD bet if over +200. If he’s lower, though, consider WR2 Nico Collins, who had 62 targets last season, including nine in the red zone. Collins' ATD odds over +200 in all 14 games played.
TE2 Brevin Jordan had three TD, six red-zone targets and 29 overall targets in nine games in 2021. “Starting” TE Pharaoh Brown played six more games than Jordan but finished with zero TDs and 34 targets.
Despite finishing the 2021 season with most touchdowns in the NFL, RB Jonathan Taylor only finished 28th in overall ATD profits (+4.3U).
After Week 2, WR Zach Pascal was the sixth-most-profitable ATD scorer in 2021. He didn't catch another TD for the remainder of the season despite playing 14 more games. He now plays for the Eagles.
Although Parris Campbell is tabbed as WR2 in this offense, his injury history (15 games played in three seasons) isn’t encouraging. With Pascal and TY Hilton gone, it could mean more opportunity for Ashton Dulin, who routinely had ATD odds over +400 in 2021.
Laviska Shenault will intrigue you for ATD odds after finishing second on the team in red-zone targets but didn’t manage to score a TD in the 2021 season. Take the wait-and-see approach for his role in the offense with RB Travis Etienne lurking.
If having to choose between a Jaguars TE for ATD bets, opt for Dan Arnold over Evan Engram. Arnold was fourth on the Jags in overall targets in 2021 despite only playing seven games. Arnold’s game-to-game ATD odds will also likely be higher than Engram’s.
With Jacksonville’s revamped offensive line, QB Trevor Lawrence could be formidable for ATD scores. He had 10 red-zone carries in 2021, which ranked among all QBs.
Since QB Patrick Mahomes has become the starter, TE Travis Kelce has been minus odds for ATD scores in over 85% of all games he’s played. Last season saw his lowest output for targets, catches, receiving yards and red-zone targets since 2017.
New WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling will likely be priced below +150 all season in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach to see how each receiver factors into this scheme before planting your flag.
Don’t bet on Mahomes rushing TDs during the regular season. He has eight in 63 regular-season games, but five in 11 postseason games.
WR Hunter Renfrow finished with the ninth-most red-zone targets (25) in the NFL in 2021 and was the most profitable ATD scorer for the Raiders at +4.5U.
Do not bet QB Derek Carr ATD props. Carr only has six rushing TDs in 126 career games and finished with zero in 2021. His ATD odds ranged from +450 to +700 last season.
Monitor RB Kenyan Drake. Josh Jacobs seems to have fallen out of favor with the coaching staff. Drake had 10 rushing TD in 2020 prior to joining the Raiders.
Josh Palmer > Jalen Guyton for WR3. Palmer had more targets, catches and TDs in his rookie year than Guyton did in his third season.
The Chargers have ranked in the bottom-five in TD allowed to TE in each of the last two seasons.
Donald Parham Jr. played the second-most snaps at TE in 2021 and only caught one less TD than starter, Jared Cook. Look for his role to increase in 2022 in his third season.
QB Matthew Stafford hasn’t scored an ATD during the regular season since 2016. When he scored in the postseason vs Arizona and Tampa Bay, he had ATD odds of +900 and +1000.
WR Cooper Kupp only had plus odds to score a TD in Week 1 and Week 2 in 2021. Despite leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns (16), he finished the 2021 season at +2.1U in overall profit (ranked 51st overall).
Van Jefferson crushed the Cardinals in 2021 with eight catches, 148 yards and two TDs. Rams face the Cardinals in Week 3.
The Patriots, Bills and Ravens only combined to allow nine rushing TDs total to opposing QBs in 2021. Tua Tagovailoa was responsible for three of them.
TE Mike Gesicki was 10th among all TEs in red-zone targets in 2021. He led all Dolphins TEs in snaps, targets, receiving yards and touchdowns.
With Kansas City in 2021, WR Tyreek Hill had minus odds for ATD props in all 17 games.
Since the arrival of Kirk Cousins in 2018, WR Adam Thielen has started hot each season. From Weeks 1-4 in that span (16 games), Thielen has 12 total receiving TDs. He finished 2021 as the second-most-profitable ATD scorer for Minnesota at +5.4U.
In his final three seasons with Washington, QB Kirk Cousins had 13 rushing TDs in 48 games. In 63 games with Minnesota, he has four rushing TDs total.
KJ Osborn had seven receiving TDs last year as a rookie and led the Vikings in ATD profit at +7.7U, which was eighth in the NFL.
Hunter Henry was one of four TE in 2021 to score nine touchdowns (Kelce, Andrews, Knox). Henry led all TE in red-zone touchdowns and third overall in red-zone targets.
Jakobi Meyers had more red-zone targets in 2021 than Travis Kelce, Terry McLaurin and Ja’Marr Chase, but he finished the season with one receiving touchdown.
Betting on Patriots running backs for ATD props can be a fool’s errand. A different New England RB has led the team in rushing TDs in each of the last five seasons.
TE Adam Trautman was second on the Saints in red-zone targets despite only playing 13 games in 2021. In those games, his ATD odds ranged from +280 to +400.
Jameis Winston rushed for six touchdowns in 16 games during his rookie season. In the following six seasons (67 games), Winston only has five rushing touchdowns.
Alvin Kamara has led the Saints in red-zone targets and red-zone carries in each of the last two seasons.
From Weeks 1-5 last season, QB Daniel Jones had five red-zone carries and two rushing touchdowns at +500 and +450 odds. From Week 6 onward, Jones only had six red-zone carries and no touchdowns. His odds were less than ATD odds were +350 or less in each game for the rest of the season.
In 2021, WR Kenny Golladay was one of three players in the NFL to have more than 70 targets and no receiving touchdowns. The other two were Kmet and Shenault.
Second-year WR Elijah Moore and QB Zach Wilson were ATD darlings in their rookie seasons. Moore (+12.5U) and Wilson (+12.1U) finished as the third- and fourth-most-profitable ATD scorers in 2021.
In Cincinnati, TE CJ Uzomah finished 2021 at -5.6U for ATD props. Uzomah had five TDs in 2021. Jets TEs combined for three TDs total in 2021.
Although he’s RB3 in this offense, trust Boston Scott if he ever gets a chance as the starter. Scott finished 2021 as the NFL’s most-profitable ATD scorer with +13.4U on seven TDs in only four official starts at RB.
In 2021, Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks in rush attempts, red-zone targets and rushing touchdowns. In 17 games, Hurts’ ATD odds were only +200 or more in two of them.
The Eagles allowed the most TDs to TE in 2021 (14). Their opponents to start the season: Lions (Hockenson), Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), Commanders (Logan Thomas) and Jaguars (Arnold).
TE Pat Freiermuth had 18 red-zone targets in 2021 (fourth for all NFL TE) and finished the season as the 13th-most profitable ATD scorer (+7U).
Last season, RB Najee Harris was fifth in the NFL in red-zone targets for a RB but only 20th in red-zone rushing attempts (29).
WR Diontae Johnson was second in NFL in overall targets and tied for fourth in red-zone targets. Only Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs had more red-zone targets in 2021.
WR Deebo Samuel finished 2021 as the most-profitable 49ers player for ATD props at +7.8U. He was the sevenths-most profitable ATD scorer in the NFL last season.
TE George Kittle's ATD odds in 2021 were between +110 to +180. He finished the season with six TDs (sixth among all TE) but only seven red-zone targets, which ranked 30th among all TEs.
In Trey Lance's two starts last season, his ATD odds were +175 and +150. He finished with a total of 24 carries, two red-zone carries, 120 rushing yards and zero TDs in those games.
In the three games without Russell Wilson last season, WR D.K. Metcalf had 14 catches, 18 targets, 197 receiving yards and three TDs. His ATD odds ranged from +130 to +150 in those games.
Rashad Penny was tied with Alex Collins with the most red-zone rushes on the Seahawks with 14. Collins is no longer with the Seahawks, and Penny is tabbed as RB1 in 2022.
As a member of the Broncos in 2021, TE Noah Fant led the team in red-zone targets with 15. That was the ninth-most red-zone targets among all NFL TEs.
RB Leonard Fournette led all NFL backs in red-zone targets (19) and was fourth in red-zone carries (43) in 2021. His eight rushing touchdowns were the most since his rookie season with Jacksonville.
When betting QB Tom Brady ATD props, keep circumstances in mind. Over the last four seasons, Brady has rushed for 10 touchdowns (17 red-zone carries), and all were within the 2-yard line. He rushed for two TD in 2021 and his ATD odds ranged from +350 to +650.
TE Cameron Brate finished 2021 as the lone profitable Buccaneer for ATD props (+2.5U). He’s expected to be TE1 in Tampa Bay with Rob Gronkowski's retirement and O.J. Howard gone.
QB Ryan Tannehill was a cash cow for ATD props in 2021. He finished as the second-most profitable player in the NFL with +13U in profit from seven rushing TDs in 17 games.
Avoid betting on running back ATD props when facing Tennessee. The Titans defense in 2021 only allowed 10 TDs to RB, tied for first in the NFL with the Saints.
Despite only having 52 overall targets in 2021, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikine was tied for the most red-zone targets on the Titans with 10.
Although he only caught two TD in 13 games, TE Ricky Seals-Jones led Washington in red-zone targets in 2021. In games without Logan Thomas, his ATD odds ranged from +250 to +350.
QB Carson Wentz only rushed for one TD in 2021 after rushing for five TD in 2020. His three red-zone carries in 2021 were also a career-low for a season.
