Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the TD Scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL props for Sunday Week 14.
NFL Week 14 Anytime TD Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Jets vs. Dolphins |
| Panthers vs. Eagles |
| Browns vs. Steelers |
| Raiders vs. Buccaneers |
| Jaguars vs. Titans |
| Saints vs. Giants |
| Falcons vs. Vikings |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals |
| Bears vs. 49ers |
| Bills vs. Rams |
Jets vs. Dolphins
I know the dynamic between Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams is overblown, but Adams is the only player I like for the Jets this week. He's averaging just under 9.8 targets per game in six games with the Jets and leads the team with nine red-zone targets in that stretch. Since both Adams and Garrett Wilson are the same price for touchdown odds, I’d rather opt with Adams since Rodgers has clearly favored him in their brief reunion.
I know the Jets still have been decent stopping passing touchdowns this season and rank first in the NFL with only nine allowed. However, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is a different beast to cover, and I love him to score again in this matchup.
The Jets play man defense at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, and Hill has historically crushed man defenses and leads Miami in target share, aDOT and touchdowns against man. I even think his teammate WR Jaylen Waddle could be in for a big game since he’s healthy and leads the team in yards per route run against man.
Verdict: Davante Adams +175 | Tyreek Hill +120
Panthers vs. Eagles
The Panthers have been a fun story over the last few weeks with the resurgence of QB Bryce Young. Over his last five games since coming back as the starter, the Panthers are 2-3 and the last four games have been decided by three or fewer points. The conflicting problem here is the Eagles are being priced like they’re going to score five touchdowns, but they’re tremendously slow starters and routinely go scoreless in the first quarter. The other conflict is the Panthers also rank in the bottom 10 in first-quarter scoring, so this game could be a drag early.
I’m not trying to hate on the Eagles but it can be frustrating to bet on touchdown scorers for their team. RB Saquon Barkley and QB Jalen Hurts have both combined for 23 rushing touchdowns this season, and Hurts has just 14 passing touchdowns compared to the unstoppable tush push that has resulted in his 12 rushing touchdowns. Then you look at the touchdown odds for A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith and both have a premium on them to score, which means you need to way down the odds board to find value.
Most of the touchdown value is on the Panthers side, especially for their receivers. WR Adam Thielen led all Panthers receivers in targets last week, and I expect Young to continue looking for him in the end zone. Also, rookie WR Xavier Legette leads the team in touchdowns against man defenses, which the Eagles play at a top-10 rate.
I’d rather just bet on both Thielen and Legette and bank on one of them scoring in garbage time.
Verdict: Adam Thielen +380 | Xavier Legette +470
Browns vs. Steelers
The last time these two teams played, it was absolute cinema (shoutout Scorsese). The Cleveland Snow Bowl™ had some great highlights, but this one should be a bit more straightforward in Pittsburgh. There might be a bit of wind, but that will have minimal impact compared to the elements we witnessed a couple of weeks ago.
When I bet this game last time, I was high on RB Najee Harris and for a Defensive/Special Teams touchdown due to the elements. If we’re not dealing with rain/snow, all passing options should be open for both teams.
QB Jameis Winston may throw some interceptions, but the upside on Browns receivers to score a touchdown increases exponentially with him under center. He almost threw three pick-sixes against the Broncos to go with his four passing touchdowns and now faces the Steelers, who just gave up 41 points and three passing touchdowns to the Bengals last week.
TE David Njoku hasn’t been that successful against man defenses this season, but he caught both his touchdowns last week on the Broncos man coverage and has 45 targets and three touchdowns in 4 1/2 games with Winston under center.
With the Browns playing man defense at a top-five rate and ranking in the bottom 10 in defensive DVOA against the deep ball, the first instinct is to run back WR George Pickens. His touchdown odds don’t scream value with some books pricing him at minus odds, though. WR2 Calvin Austin scored on the Browns in the Snow Bowl and should play after missing some practice earlier in the week.
I’d rather just rock with TE Pat Freiermuth at +300 since we know he’ll get targets and will play over 80% of snaps.
Verdict: David Njoku +240 | Pat Freiermuth at +300 or better
Raiders vs. Buccaneers
I know everyone will be all over TE Brock Bowers again this week since the Bucs rank 31st in defensive DVOA against tight ends and he has seen 40 targets in just the last three games. I usually like to have odds at +200 or better for Bowers, given the limitations at quarterback. At +175, though, I wouldn’t tell someone not to bet Bowers either.
For me, the best matchup with the best touchdown odds is WR Jakobi Meyers at +240. I know he hasn’t scored in four games since coming back from injury but he’s been a target machine with 43 targets in that span and has just as many red-zone targets as Bowers this season despite missing two games. The Bucs play zone at a top-six rate and it's Meyers and Bowers who have led the charge against those defenses.
If you’re a regular reader, you probably already know who I’m going to recommend for the Buccaneers: Mike Evans +120.
Evans was a beast again against Carolina, scoring the first touchdown of the game and saw 12 targets in the win. He should be in line to score again against the Raiders that play man coverage at an above-average rate (12th).
If you want to bet TE Cade Otton, I’d try to wait until we get closer to +200 for better value. The Raiders have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends this season and rank 27th in defensive DVOA against tight ends.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +240 | Mike Evans +125
Jaguars vs. Titans
There used to be this idea that the Titans were decent at stopping the run and their defense overall was underrated. I'm not sure we can say that anymore considering they’ve given up 74 points over the last two games, Washington carved them up with the pass and the run but that’s because of the dual-threat of QB Jayden Daniels.
Now, the Titans face the non-threat of QB Mac Jones, who’s looked OK in mop-up duty after QB Trevor Lawrence left the game but isn’t a signal caller that inspires confidence. Still, we ride with rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. at +255 since he has big-play ability, leads the team in touchdowns against both man and zone defenses and the Jaguars could be in a potential trailing game-script again.
I’m not sure if you’re aware of the Nick Westbrook-Ikhine touchdown phenomenon happening with the Titans but the results have been undeniable. Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown in eight of the last nine games and in all but one game since the Titans' Week 5 bye. Sportsbooks have tried to adjust the odds as much as they can without overextending themselves because he doesn’t get a ton of volume. He only has 20 catches total on the season that have resulted in eight touchdowns and if you had bet Westbrook-Ikhine touchdown in every game this season, you’d be up 39.8 units in profit. We have to keep betting this.
Now, you can’t write off WR Calvin Ridley either because this is a matchup that was kind of made for him. He leads the team in target share and yards per route run, and aDOT against man defenses and the Jaguars play man at a top-three rate despite being quite unsuccessful at it. I wouldn’t bet Ridley below +200 because you still have to depend on QB Will Levis to seal the deal, which isn’t encouraging, but it also kind of helps that this is a “revenge game” spot for Ridley too.
Verdict: Brian Thomas Jr. +240 | Calvin Ridley at +200 or better | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +230
Saints vs. Giants
It’s hard to feel great about betting Saints touchdown scorers. Our go-to guy in QB/RB/TE Taysom Hill was lost for the season last week, and the Saints receivers room is still in shambles with WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling as the default WR1 now. This means the main options to consider are tight ends Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau.
Let’s go with the latter since Moreau leads the team in yards per route run and aDOT against man coverages. The Giants play man defense at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL and rank 28th in defensive DVOA against tight ends.
Giants WR Malik Nabers likely has the best matchup for this one since the Saints still play man coverage at a top-10 rate and Nabers has an insane 36% target share against man defenses. He’d be the top target for the G-Men with the upside of multiple touchdowns for the escalator bettors.
One long-shot touchdown bet keeps coming back to me, and that’s QB Drew Lock. He scored last week against the Cowboys and you could argue Lock should’ve had two touchdowns in that game. Facing a Saints team that is 31st in defensive DVOA against the run, I’ll take a swing that Lock calls his own number again.
Verdict: Foster Moreau +550 | Malik Nabers +210 | Sprinkle on Drew Lock +700
Falcons vs. Vikings
If I’m betting a Falcons touchdown scorer, the list starts and ends with WR Drake London (+195). He has force in the red zone this season with all six of his touchdowns scored inside the 20-yard line. Even though he finished with only three targets last week against the Chargers, two were in the red zone and he now has 19 targets inside the 20, which ranks second in the NFL.
The elephant in the room has been QB Kirk Cousins and his inconsistency as he has three games with multiple interceptions and has only thrown for over 300 yards twice. Still, in his first game back in Minnesota, I expect him to throw the rock a lot and for London to score.
This should be a great matchup for TE T.J. Hockenson but when the Vikings get to the red zone, he has been more of a decoy than the hero. TE Johnny Mundt scored last week and TE Josh Oliver could be back this week. While I do think Hockenson could score, the Falcons have been pretty stingy to the position this year and rank just outside the top five in targets/catches to tight ends.
The Falcons tend to struggle more against opposing receivers as they’ve allowed 15 touchdowns to the position which ranks bottom-three in the NFL. Stick to Justin Jefferson at plus-money or WR Jalen Nailor at +550 for a long shot.
Verdict: Drake London +175 | Sprinkle on Jalen Nailor +550
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
These teams played a couple of weeks ago and it was a snooze-fest for scoring, finishing as a 16-9 Seahawks win. A trending problem for the Cardinals is they couldn’t get RB James Conner going as he finished with less than 10 carries. In the three games this season where Conner had less than 10 carries, the Cardinals only combined for 32 total points and two total touchdowns. Essentially, if Conner doesn’t eat, nobody on the Cardinals does either.
As a result, I’m going to bank on QB Kyler Murray again because I’m of the mindset that when he’s over +250 to score a touchdown, I feel compelled to bet on it. He’s got four rushing touchdowns this season and is nearly matchup-proof because of his ability to get around the edge of the line of scrimmage. It also helps when you have someone like Conner to act as a decoy.
Last week, we managed to hit WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at +200, and he's +175 this week, which is still decent. The Seahawks play man defense more than the average and Harrison leads the team in target share and touchdowns against man coverage.
It’s tough sledding on the Seahawks side for touchdown scorers. Everyone is wondering when WR DK Metcalf is going to have a breakout game this season, but he’s been struggling since coming back from injury and doesn’t seem to be on the same page as QB Geno Smith. The only receiver that does seem to be WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who caught a touchdown against the Cardinals when they played a few weeks ago. I think there’s no clear-cut winner here. Metcalf has the big-play ability while Smith-Njigba will get the volume.
I side slightly with Smith-Njigba here but don’t feel great about it.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +280 | Marvin Harrison Jr. +175 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +200 or better
Bears vs. 49ers
The Bears looked to have finally gotten the passing game back on track with five passing touchdowns over the last two games and WR Keenan Allen has been the biggest beneficiary with 14 targets and three receiving touchdowns. Like Jauan Jennings, who I'll get to shortly, Allen leads the team in target share against both man and zone defenses. As long as he’s healthy, I trust QB Caleb Williams to keep finding him.
If you prefer to take WR DJ Moore instead, I wouldn’t talk you out of it since he’s scored in each of the last two games and leads the Bears with 18 red-zone targets.
The Niners are clearly shells of themselves from all the injuries and the majority of them looked kind of foolish over the last two games battling the elements in Green Bay and Buffalo. Now, they get to return home for warm weather and clear skies which should open up the passing game for the 49ers.
I’m immediately taking Jennings at +250. He has taken over the Brandon Aiyuk role and has been electric in games without him. In five games without Aiyuk, Jennings has 46 targets (seven in the red zone) and four receiving touchdowns. Jennings also leads the Niners in target share against both man and zone defenses.
Verdict: Keenan Allen +275 | Jauan Jennings +250
Bills vs. Rams
Late-season Josh Allen is starting to take over again, so we'll go right back to his touchdown prop at +120. He’s scored a touchdown now in three straight games and while chalky, part of the reason why we default to Allen is the odds. Each Bills pass-catcher I'd consider (Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid) is +185 or lower. The odds are stacked like the Bills are scoring five touchdowns in this game, which may happen but it's highly unlikely it will be spread around the way the touchdown odds indicate.
As long as the trio of Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy, the Rams passing game will find bouts of success, especially when the game is indoors. That’s why both Kupp and Nacua are evenly priced around +150, even though the Bills are top-10 in defensive DVOA against the pass and rank fourth in touchdowns allowed to receivers (eight) this season. The respect is warranted.
I’d opt for Kupp, who didn’t score last week and will likely see more passing volume from Stafford, who only had 24 pass attempts. This is one of the higher totals of the week and if the Rams are trailing, we know Kupp will see at least 10 targets.
Verdict: Josh Allen +120 | Cooper Kupp +150
