Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL props for Sunday Week 15.
NFL Week 15 Anytime TD Scorers
Cowboys vs. Panthers
The Cowboys defense continues to go through the motions and while they can sometimes get pressure, it hasn’t amounted to much for stopping touchdowns. The Bengals did whatever they wanted with their passing game in Week 14 and while I’m not comparing QBs Joe Burrow and Bryce Young, Young has shown vast improvement to the point that I believe the Panthers will be able to put up points.
The main target for Young has clearly been WR Adam Thielen, who has 20 catches, 258 receiving yards and a touchdown in three games since returning from injury. He’s who I’d trust among the Panthers pass-catchers. Of course, though, if you want to take a swing with me on Tommy Tremble at +500, that would be my long shot since the Cowboys have allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.
Speaking of being awful against tight ends, the Panthers are right at the top of that list at 28th in DVOA against the position while giving up 10 touchdowns. The latter ranks last in the NFL. This means you could look at Jake Ferguson or Luke Schoonmaker, and I’d rather go with Ferguson in this spot. He returned from injury in Week 14 and played 73% of snaps with six targets.
The hangup here is that Cooper Rush is still the Cowboys' quarterback and has struggled mightily with a 59% completion rate this season. I’d still bet Ferguson because of the Panthers defense, but temper your expectations on Dallas' offense.
VERDICT: Jake Ferguson +300 | Adam Thielen +210 | Tommy Tremble +450
Browns vs. Chiefs
The Browns pass rush continues to generate pressure and ranks in the top five in both pressure rate per dropback and blitz rate. QB Patrick Mahomes has seen a big dip in production when under pressure with his completion percentage dropping to 47% on those snaps.
The Browns also play aggressive man coverage, against which Kansas City has struggled this season, so I’d rather just rely on the Chiefs run game and go with RB Isiah Pacheco at +120. He has taken the backfield over from Kareem Hunt and saw 14 carries against the Chargers while Hunt saw just five. The only reason we’re getting +120 for the anytime touchdown is because Pacheco couldn’t punch in a touchdown in Week 14.
Any game involving QB Jameis Winston is cinema on the football field. This week, he faces a Chiefs defense that plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL and has fallen to 19th in defensive DVOA against the pass.
The receivers room for the Browns could be in flux this week with Cedric Tillman returning. TE David Njoku won’t be playing, so the touchdown odds for each Browns receiver are a bit steamed off its regular price. For example, WR Jerry Jeudy has had the most success against man coverage for the Browns, but his touchdown odds are hovering around +180 when they usually should be at +225 or above.
In this case, I’d rather pivot and take both Browns TEs in Jordan Akins (+500) and Blake Whiteheart (+1100) and put one-half unit on each. We know Winston is going to throw the football over the middle since he has targeted Njoku 30 times over the last two games. With the Chiefs pass defense starting to slip and ranking 20th in defensive DVOA against tight ends, let’s take a shot on his replacements.
VERDICT: Isiah Pacheco +120 | Sprinkle on Jordan Akins +500 & Blake Whiteheart +1000
Dolphins vs. Texans
I know it’s not the flashiest bet with his odds, but I'm going to keep betting on WR Tyreek Hill when he's plus money. The Dolphins passing offense is humming, and Hill has now scored in four of the last five games.
The big hangup is how will the Dolphins will fare under pressure since the Texans rank top-five in pressure rate and typically limit long completions. Well, QB Tua Tagovailoa has been actually doing OK under pressure this season with a 70% completion percentage to go with eight passing touchdowns and only one interception. The latter might be a bit lucky since he has six turnover-worthy plays when seeing pressure.
I still think Hill is the pick because for all the Texans’ defensive strengths, this unit has allowed 19 touchdowns to opposing receivers this season, which is the second most in the NFL.
On the other side, don’t overthink this: WR Nico Collins is who we want here. He leads the team in target share against both man and zone defenses and is second in aDOT. The latter is important because the Dolphins rank in the bottom five in defensive DVOA against deep balls, and Collins has 20 targets over his last two games.
With Tank Dell also below +200, let’s bank on Collins going off and scoring here.
VERDICT: Tyreek Hill +140 | Nico Collins +135
Bengals vs. Titans
I don’t want to make this as simple as “he didn’t score last week,” but this is a decent bounce-back spot for Bengals WR Tee Higgins after a quiet showing against last week. Part of the reason why I liked Higgins last week against the Cowboys was he was riding a three-game touchdown streak and the Bengals defense does the team no favors, which meant Cincinnati would have to score to stay in the game.
Ultimately, the touchdowns went to WR Ja’Marr Chase, but I’ll go back to Higgins to get on track, especially if the Titans make it a point to shut down Chase, which is easier said than done.
It was a tough loss last week for many bettors banking on Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to keep his touchdown streak going. He finished with only one catch on two targets but gets a decent matchup against a Bengals defense that has been hemorrhaging points to opponents this season.
That being said, Westbrook-Ikhine only has eight touchdowns on only 21 catches for the season. Also, Will Levis is his quarterback.
I’m OK with going back to Westbrook-Ikhine this week, but only at +250 or higher. If the volatility concerns you, WR Calvin Ridley at +200 is a decent alternative because he leads the team in target share against man defenses and had 12 targets last week against Jacksonville.
VERDICT: Tee Higgins +165 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at +250 or better | Calvin Ridley +200
Commanders vs. Saints
The Saints have played man defense at a top-six rate this season, so this is a matchup for WR Terry McLaurin (+135). He leads the team in target share against man coverage and has a team-leading four touchdowns against man, which ranks third in the NFL. Most of the Commanders' touchdown odds are pretty steamed as 7.5-point favorites, so I'd skip on the Commanders if you don't want to pay a premium price for McLaurin.
The Saints offense was in rough shape before QB Derek Carr broke his hand, and that's especially the case now that Jake Haener appears set to start. New Orleans has injuries at multiple levels which means we’re stuck with the likes of WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+380) and TE Juwan Johnson (+600). Both may end up scoring, but betting on either requires putting your trust in Haener, whose name doesn't inspire confidence.
At this stage, I’d probably lean toward Johnson since he’s a big target for the quarterback in the end zone and has caught a touchdown in two of his last three games, but I don’t feel great about the Saints offense this week.
VERDICT: Terry McLaurin +135 | Sprinkle on Juwan Johnson +600
Jets vs. Jaguars
I tend to steer clear of betting Jets touchdown scorers based on the team's motivation (or lack thereof). I’m not quite sure what kind of showing we’ll get here in a meaningless game.
What we know about the matchup is that the Jags rank last in defensive DVOA against the pass and play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. That would especially benefit Davante Adams, who has scored a touchdown in three of the last five games with 53 targets in that stretch. I don't love his odds at +145, but I'd still play him.
So, let’s pivot to Aaron Rodgers' second-favorite receiver in Allen Lazard at +440. Lazard played 78% of snaps in his return to the lineup and has the same amount of touchdowns against man defense as Adams does this season, and he has more yards per route run against that coverage.
Unless you’re getting insane value on Jaguars touchdown scorers, I’d avoid them like the plague with Mac Jones under center. In three starts this season, Jones led the offense to a total of two offensive touchdowns and both were rushing TDs. People will point to his results against the Texans, but Houston had clearly prepared for Trevor Lawrence before he got knocked out of the game. Both of Jones’ passing touchdowns in that game were in garbage time when the Jaguars were down multiple scores.
Add in that he’s thrown five interceptions in his three starts this season, and I’m not sure a Jaguars receiver can be below +300 before I’d consider betting him.
VERDICT: Davante Adams +145 | Sprinkle on Allen Lazard +440
Ravens vs. Giants
I want to take Ravens WR Rashod Bateman, but the tricky part here is the likely game script and the Ravens' offensive tendencies. I expect that Baltimore will run the ball a lot in this game, especially when it gets to the red zone. Also, TE Mark Andrews (+180) and WR Zay Flowers (+140) are already steamed based on recent performance.
The main reason why I liked Bateman here is the Giants play man defense at a top-10 rate and are last in defensive DVOA against the deep ball. Those both point to Bateman, who leads the Ravens in aDOT and has two touchdowns against man coverage this season.
The Giants are the betting favorites to finish with the worst record in the NFL, so it’s hard to determine who to bet on this offense. I'm not saying New York is tanking, but I think everyone would agree that losing every possible game is in its best interest.
Well, this game could turn into a blowout in a hurry. If we’re going with with the idea that the Giants will face a trailing game script, we should bank on the passing game to find the end zone. The first target needs to be WR Malik Nabers (+275).
Nabers is averaging 11.4 targets per game and faces a Ravens team that plays a ton of man coverage and ranks in the bottom five of the NFL in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers WRs this season.
VERDICT: Rashod Bateman +250 | Malik Nabers +275
Steelers vs. Eagles
Steelers WR George Pickens would be a logical choice for this matchup, but he’s out with a hamstring injury. QB Russell Wilson can obviously extend plays with his legs but if he can't target his receivers down the field, this could be over quickly.
Instead, go with old reliable Pat Freiermuth in this spot. I know the Eagles have defended opposing tight ends well this season, but Freiermuth has done well against man defenses this season and leads the Steelers with three touchdowns against that coverage.
This matchup points to Eagles WR A.J. Brown. He crushes man defense and single-high-safety looks, both of which the Steelers play at a top-10 rate. Still, there’s something unsettling about betting on Brown when “he’s due” since the Eagles don’t really need to throw to be successful. Philadelphia has won every game that Brown has played in this season, but that’s only amounted to four touchdowns in 11 games for him. He might score but I can’t bet on a guy who may explode at halftime because he only has four targets.
I’d rather take WR2 DeVonta Smith, who has thrived when TE Dallas Goedert misses time. Smith has five touchdowns in 10 games this season and sees a huge uptick in production when Goedert is out. Since the start of last season, he has scored a touchdown in five of the last seven games without Goedert and has scored in three of four games this season without him.
VERDICT: Pat Freiermith +330 | DeVonta Smith +250
Colts vs. Broncos
Yes, Anthony Richardson threw for two touchdowns against the Patriots last week, but it was such a slog to just throw complete passes. His completion percentage for the season is still just 47%.
Now, the Colts face one of the top pass defenses in the NFL in the Broncos, who rank seventh in DVOA against the pass and also third against the run.
My rule for betting Colts pass-catchers for touchdowns is always the same: If it isn’t over +300, then no thanks. Josh Downs would be the receiver whose odds I monitor, but I'd only bet on him at that price.
If you want to take the Richardson to rush for a touchdown at +175, I wouldn’t try to talk you out of it. Just know the Broncos have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL and only one quarterback (Geno Smith in Week 1) has scored against them this season.
The Colts continue to play a ton of zone coverage and rank first in the NFL with employing that defense. For the Broncos, this means I’d want to target a long shot like WR Marvin Mims. He scored in the Broncos' last game two weeks ago on a deep throw from Nix, and his two touchdowns against zone defenses this season lead the Broncos, as does his team-high yards-per-route-run rate.
VERDICT: Josh Downs at +300 or better | Marvin Mims +400
Bills vs. Lions
For arguably the game of the week, there are only two guys I want to bet in this spot: Bills QB Josh Allen and Lions WR Jameson Williams.
With Allen, you’re banking on touchdown pedigree. He ran for three touchdowns last week against the Rams and has scored a touchdown in four straight games. After that kind of run, it may be shocking to some to see he still has plus odds to score. That's likely because of how tough the Lions run defense has been this season, ranking first in DVOA against the ground game.
That being said, Detroit allowed three rushing touchdowns to Josh Jacobs. If the Lions get up fast, Allen's scramble rate tends to increase when the Bills are trailing.
As for Williams, this is just too good a price for one of the best deep threats in the NFL. The duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp diced up this Bills secondary last week and while I expect the Bills pass rush to put QB Jared Goff under pressure, it’s only a matter of time before Williams explodes. He has seen 22 targets in three games since coming back from suspension but hasn't found the end zone in that stretch.
It also helps that a lot of the Bills secondary has missed practice this week and might not be 100%.
VERDICT: Josh Allen +120 | Jameson Williams +240
Buccaneers vs. Chargers
Another Buccaneers game, another recommendation to bet on WR Mike Evans.
I’m not trying to repeat myself every week, but getting a premier receiver who’s nearly matchup-proof at +150 is decent value since I had Evans to be closer to +120. He didn’t score last week against the Raiders, but he could see double-digit targets this week since the Buccaneers are road underdogs against a good Chargers team.
I don’t really like much on the Chargers side for touchdown props. RB Gus Edwards would be a logical choice, but he’s minus odds while WR Quentin Johnston is down to +190. While I’m pretty dismissive of Johnston if he’s below +200, it’s worth mentioning that the Bucs play zone at a top-six rate and Johnston leads the NFL with seven touchdowns against that coverage this year.
TE Will Dissly looks to be out for this one and backups Tucker Fisk and Stone Smartt should get more playing time. The Bucs are 31st in defensive DVOA against tight ends and have allowed five touchdowns to the position.
If you want to take a crack on one of these guys, go with Smartt since Fisk is more of a pass-blocker. He has been kept in for blocking on 30% of dropbacks when on the field.
VERDICT: Mike Evans +150 | Stone Smartt +350
Patriots vs. Cardinals
By default, there are only two ways I’d go with the Patriots for touchdown scorers: Either you bank on WR Demario Douglas to continue to crush zone defenses and score his second touchdown of the season since he leads the team in target share and yards per route run against zone, or you go with QB Drake Maye to continue running hard with the ball.
The only issue is Maye’s touchdown odds are steamed down to +350, so I’d side with Douglas in this spot. Frankly, though, this is a game I’d rather just pass on betting a Patriots touchdown scorer.
On the Arizona side, there’s something off with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. in this offense. He may still end up scoring this week since he leads the Cardinals in target share and touchdowns against man defenses (the Patriots play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL), but he only has 46 catches on 85 targets. Some games, he and QB Kyler Murray look to be on the same page and others, it looks like it’s their first time playing together. I just can’t get there this week with his odds around +150.
I’d rather bank on TE Trey McBride to score his first receiving touchdown of the season. He’s the only player of 13 with 100 targets to not have a receiving touchdown this season, and the Patriots rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA in defending tight ends this season.
VERDICT: Lean Demario Douglas +333 | Trey McBride +180
