Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL player props for Sunday Week 16.
NFL Week 16 Anytime TD Scorers
Browns vs. Bengals
Last week against the Titans, we took Tee Higgins to score a TD and he rewarded us with a score. This week, I want to go right back to him because while WR Ja’Marr Chase leads the team in touchdowns against man defenses, he’s got a premium of around -165 to score.
Meanwhile, Higgins is still at +130 to score and leads the Bengals in target share and Yards-Per-Route-Run against those coverages. With the way the Cincinnati passing offense is performing and how their defense is hemorrhaging points, all Bengals pass-catchers are in play, but it's Higgins who I like to keep the TDs coming.
It’s a shame we won’t see QB Jameis Winston in this game. He was benched after the W15 loss due to all the interceptions he continues to throw and now the Browns have pivoted to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who has a career 51% completion percentage and has only thrown one TD in his career. Unless you want to take DTR to rush for a TD, avoid Browns TD scorers this week.
Verdict: Tee Higgins +150 | Sprinkle on Dorian Thompson-Robinson +400
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Rams vs. Jets
The Aaron Rodgers-Davante Adams dynamic may seem like a lost cause at this point of the season, but for TD betting, it’s starting to ratchet up. Adams has four TD in his last three games and has 35 targets in that span, with seven of them in the red zone. As a result, Adams is as low as +125 to score this week and against this Rams secondary, it’s probably going to happen if this volume continues.
The Rams rank first in receptions allowed to WR this season while simultaneously ranking bottom-three in TDs to the position with 17. Adams also leads the team in Yards-Per-Route-Run against zone defenses and the Rams play zone at a top-four rate in the NFL. At this stage, the Jets offense has become quite predictable, so unless you want to take Garrett Wilson at slightly better odds of +150 or take a swing on WR3 Allen Lazard at +500, just keep sticking with Davante.
The Rams' offense is much more innovative, but, like the Jets, they’ve become quite predictable. We know RB Kyren Williams will see at least 20+ touches per game while WR Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua will see the majority of targets, and that’s OK! But this means those three are heavily steamed for TD odds, with Nacua at minus odds at some sportsbooks.
Let’s pivot to WR3 Demarcus Robinson instead. He’s +375 to score and while he won’t have better receiver metrics like target share or Yards-Per-Route-Run than Kupp or Nacua, where he edges them out is the six touchdowns scored on man defenses this season. That stat has Robinson tied with Ja’Marr Chase for most TDs against man defense this season.
Verdict: Davante Adams +130 | Demarcus Robinson +375
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Eagles vs. Commanders
Here we go, another week where I’m betting WR DeVonta Smith to score a TD. I’ve recommended DeVonta in each of the last two games since coming back from injury and he rewarded me with a score in each. He now has six TDs this season in 11 games and also led the Eagles with 12 targets in a win over the Steelers.
The key here is the absence of TE Dallas Goedert. It's allowed Smith to thrive with him out of the lineup. Since the start of last season, Smith has scored a touchdown in six of the last eight games without the TE1 and has scored in four of five games this season without him. I’m going to continue to ride the hot hand, especially if sportsbooks have TD odds over +200.
The first player I wanted to bet in this spot for the Commanders was TE Zach Ertz, but he looks to be out with a concussion this week. That makes it pretty barren for options on the Washington side because the Eagles' defense gives up almost nothing in the passing game and ranks fourth in defensive DVOA against the pass.
Of course, you could always consider WR Terry McLaurin at +165 since he leads the team with 10 receiving TDs and has done the best against man defenses. Still, that price isn’t great, so unless you can get McLaurin at +200 or better, I’d pass on Commanders this week.
If you’re looking at a “Revenge Game” spot, there’s always Commanders WR Olamide Zaccheaus at +600 and Eagles WR Jahan Dotson at +1000.
Verdict: DeVonta Smith +250 | Sprinkle on Olamide Zaccheaus +600 | Sprinkle on Jahan Dotson +1000
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Cardinals vs. Panthers
The Panthers fell back to Earth quickly after getting beaten by the Cowboys and while I do expect Carolina to continue to struggle on offense, this is a game where I want to back to WR Adam Thielen.
He didn’t score last week, but he continues to play over 80% of snaps, with the majority of those out of the slot. In four games since returning from IR, Thielen leads the team with 36 targets and has clearly shown he has the trust of QB Bryce Young.
The Panthers passing offense should see a bit more success this week because Young has a strong completion percentage when not having pressure compared to 42% when he sees pressure. The Cardinals are bottom-five in pressure rate per dropback and bottom-five in blitz rate, so look for the Panthers' passing game to rebound with Thielen being heavily involved.
I’ve mentioned over the last few weeks that WR Marvin Harrison Jr. has looked off in this offense and despite leading the team with seven receiving TDs, he only has 47 catches on 92 targets. This should be a decent get-right spot against the Panthers as they play zone at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL and rank 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass and 29th against WR1.
I won’t be betting on him, but I’m obligated to mention that TE Trey McBride has the most targets in the NFL without a TD and leads the team in targets and red-zone targets. The Panthers have allowed the most TDs in the NFL to TE this season, so it's an interesting option.
Verdict: Adam Thielen +200 | Marvin Harrison Jr. +165
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Titans vs. Colts
Both Titans QB Will Levis and Colts QB Anthony Richardson have more in common than you realize. They both throw a beautiful deep ball and both have horrible accuracy where betting on TD scorers can be extremely frustrating. This means you need to add an extra tax to each pass-catcher.
For the Colts, getting a decent deep ball could be tough because they’ll be missing their biggest deep threat in WR Alec Pierce is out and the Titans' pass defense ranks top-five in defensive DVOA vs deep passes. The only Indy receiver worth taking is Josh Downs at +260 since he’s shown he can be a receiving threat against both man and zone defenses while leading the Colts in end zone targets (11).
For the Titans, WR Calvin Ridley’s odds are completely steamed so let’s take another swing on WR2 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. He was seeing odds as low as +185 during his eight TDs in his seven-game run but now that he's been held out of the endzone for two games, we’re starting to see something closer to what his fair odds should be at +360. When he started his streak, it was against the Colts, who play zone at the top rate in the NFL and NWI leads the Titans with four TD vs zone coverages this season.
Verdict: Josh Downs +260 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +360
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Lions vs. Bears
It may have been a garbage time TD, but it all counted the same with Jameson Williams. The WR2 scored a meaningless TD (for some) last week against the Bills and I think we should go right back to him. He’s got five TDs this season and the Bears are much better at defending the short pass (6th in defensive DVOA) compared to the deep ball.
QB Jared Goff has historically seen his passing metrics drop off a cliff when playing outdoors and this will be his first cold-weather game since he played in Chicago last season and only had one passing TD and two interceptions. Do I think we will see a repeat of that? No, but the weather will make me downgrade the Lions passing game by a smidge.
The Bears passing offense has been a dumpster fire for most of the season, but WR Keenan Allen continues to be a bright spot, especially against man defenses. The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and when QB Caleb Williams sees that coverage, his sights are clearly on Allen. The vet leads the Bears in target share and TDs against man defenses this season and scored twice on Detroit when they played on Thanksgiving.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +210 | Keenan Allen +220
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Giants vs. Falcons
The Michael Penix era is about to begin in Atlanta and while I had a special place for QB Kirk Cousins, his arm strength and lack of mobility were clearly lacking. Penix may still need some games under his belt to process NFL defenses and pocket awareness, but one thing we do know is he can throw a pretty deep ball.
That’s why I immediately gravitate to Falcons pass-catchers because the Giants play man coverage at a top-12 rate, rank 29th in defensive DVOA against the pass and are last when facing the deep ball. This lines up with Falcons WR2 Darnell Mooney, who leads the team in aDOT and is second on the team in receiving TDs.
If you want to bet on WR Drake London at +120, I wouldn't mind that either since he’s third in the NFL in red-zone targets and leads the team with seven receiving TDs.
Do you know who else is awful against the pass? The Atlanta Falcons who have allowed the most TDs to WRs this season and rank 26th in defensive DVOA against the pass. The problem is at quarterback, where Drew Lock is expected to start again this week and he’s been more lethal with his legs than throwing the football.
Still, in his two starts, WR Malik Nabers saw 23 targets, so at +210, he’s a decent choice, but if you want to take a swing on Lock to scramble and score at +700, that would be only a longshot worth considering.
Verdict: Darnell Mooney +250 | Malik Nabers +210 | Sprinkle on Drew Lock +700
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Vikings vs. Seahawks
The health of QB Geno Smith made me initially iffy about Seahawks' TD scorers this week, but he looks to be on track to play. If he’s in the lineup, then we should target WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba this week at +200. He leads the team in target share against zone defense and is coming off a 12-target game against the Packers in Week 15.
The lack of consistency from WR DK Metcalf is hard to trust and WR Tyler Lockett’s involvement in the offense and has three targets or less in five straight games. Stick with JSN to get the volume.
For the Vikings, I know this will be super chalky, but WR Justin Jefferson at +135 is where I immediately go. He’s been on a tear recently with three TDs over his last two games and should be able to take advantage of a Seahawks coverage unit that plays a lot of man defense. Well, Jefferson leads all Vikings WRs in target share and Yards-Per-Route-Run against Man coverage.
If you’re looking at a longshot, don’t sleep on TE2 Josh Oliver. He’s been quiet over the last month while recovering from injury, but he’s still playing over 45% of snaps and has three receiving TDs.
Verdict: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +200 | Justin Jefferson +135 | Sprinkle on Josh Oliver +900
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Patriots vs. Bills
With the Patriots being huge underdogs in this game, most of the TD value on the Bills side is pretty steamed. QB Josh Allen is now minus odds to score along with RB James Cook, while WR Amari Cooper has odds at +175 despite not having scored since his Bills debut against the Seahawks.
At this stage, the only option I’d consider is rookie WR Keon Coleman at +250 since he’s done ok against man defenses this season with a 24% target share and two receiving TDs. The Patriots play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate, but temper your expectations on Bills receiving TDs with Buffalo using a run-first approach with its offense in the latter stages of the season.
Given this could be a blowout and the Bills are using a run-first attack, we may as well start looking at backup running backs to score and Buffalo has a legit weapon in RB Ray Davis (+300), who has five TD scores this season (three rushing, two receiving).
Last week, I wrote about the Patriots TD scorers against the Cardinals:
“By default, there are only two ways I’d go with the Patriots for touchdown scorers. Either you bank on WR Demario Douglas to continue to crush zone defenses and score his second touchdown of the season since he leads the team in target share and yards per route run against zone. OR, you go with QB Drake Maye to continue running hard with the ball.”
Well, both of those guys scored against Arizona. Do I think they will score again in Week 16? Maybe, but Douglas (+450) has a pretty tough matchup against the Bills secondary, while Maye (+400) is going against a defense that’s only allowed one QB to score on them, along with giving up the fewest rushing attempts.
RB2 Antonio Gibson (+650) is probably the best option for Pats TD scorers, given that he’s the passing-down back for New England and the Bills have given up the most receptions and receiving yards to RB this season, with six receiving touchdowns.
Verdict: Ray Davis +380 | Sprinkle on Antonio Gibson +650
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49ers vs. Dolphins
My two main TD bets I look for immediately when seeing the 49ers on the schedule are TE George Kittle (+160) and WR Jauan Jennings (+195). The TD odds have been steamed, which means those boons for profit have become capped.
I’d prefer Jennings of the two since he leads the team in target share against both man and zone defenses and we just watched Nico Collins and Davante Adams torch this defense in the red zone in back-to-back games.
I’m going to continue to bank on WR Tyreek Hill to make plays and get back in the endzone. He still leads the team in red-zone targets (14) and while he can be inconsistent because of the QB play from Tua Tagovailoa, I fully expect the Fins to cook something up and have him more involved after Hill only had two catches last week against Houston.
Another “fun” angle to consider is RB Raheem Mostert in a “Revenge Game” spot, not because of that angle but more because of how much the 49ers' run defense has struggled this season. They rank 19th in defensive DVOA against the run compared to fifth against the pass, with 19 rushing TDs allowed. The latter is tied for 27th in the NFL.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +195 | Tyreek Hill +160 | Raheem Mostert +430
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Jaguars vs. Raiders
This is arguably the worst pairing of quarterbacks in an NFL game this season. On one side, you have Desmond Ridder, who has a terrific matchup in the Jaguars' secondary but has shown that he can’t really throw the ball downfield.
This is bordering on Anthony Richardson territory, where you can’t really bet a Raider pass-catcher to score a TD unless it's at +300 or above. Even as amazing as TE Brock Bowers is, the Raiders might not even score more than one TD. If Aidan O’Connell is playing, then we can look at this offense seriously and project someone like Tre Tucker to get back on track and have a big game.
On the Jaguars side, WR Brian Thomas Jr. has been one of the lone bright spots of the Jacksonville offense, but his odds are now down to +160. While Mac Jones showed life last week, those odds don’t scream value, even if BTJ has been amazing this season.
Instead, let’s pivot to TE Brenton Strange, who has gotten more work after Evan Engram went on IR. He didn’t score last week but did see a career-high in targets (12) and snaps (82%) in Week 15. Strange is who I’d go with because the volume is there and the Raiders rank bottom-five in targets, catches, yards and TDs against TE this season.
Verdict: Brenton Strange +350 | Tre Tucker +300
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