Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Every week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look at NFL Week 7.
NFL Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
First team to 20 wins this game. Plain and simple.
I don’t think there will be many touchdowns scored in this one with a total of 37. It also doesn’t help that one of the teams — the Falcons — has a passing offense that's only mustered six touchdowns.
That being said, I’d rather bank on a pass-catcher than a runner against a Buccaneers rush defense that'd only allowed two rushing scores in five games.
We’re in long-shot territory with KhaDarel Hodge (+1200), who's the primary slot receiver for Atlanta. The Bucs allowed the most TDs to the slot last season, and Falcons slot receiver at the time, Olamide Zaccheaus, scored in both games against Tampa.
Simple logic, but sometimes that’s all you need for a sprinkle.
Verdict: Sprinkle on KhaDarel Hodge at +1200.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Would you bet your friend’s money on Patriots TD scorers? OK, maybe you would, but would you bet your own money? Didn’t think so.
The Pats offense is a mess at all levels. I can’t fully endorse any New England bets, but if you NEED to bet on anyone, just take Kendrick Bourne at +340 and hope for the best.
He leads the team with 44 targets (four in the red zone). At least you know he’ll be out there — if Mac Jones doesn’t throw an interception, you’re back in business!
For the Bills, this is the game where you want try to find Stefon Diggs at plus-odds and hammer it. Diggs has scored in three straight games in Foxborough (five TDs total) and he’s fifth in the NFL in red-zone targets.
Verdict: Bet Kendrick Bourne at +340 and Stefon Diggs at plus odds.
It’s the battle of backup quarterbacks, which makes this game really hard to feel good about.
The only players I’d consider are Kareem Hunt and Michael Pittman Jr.
Hunt has already cut into Jerome Ford’s workload and he is the better pass-catching back (scored vs. the Niners last week). Pittman is just the bearer of bad luck — he’s seen 10+ targets in four of six games but only has one TD to show for it.
Verdict: Bet Kareem Hunt +275 and Michael Pittman +240.
Is this the game we finally see Jared Goff fall off a cliff?
His home-road splits tend to tell the story. Historically, the Lions' offensive output drops off away from Detroit, but it was alive and well on the road in Tampa Bay in Week 6. Now, they another tough test in Baltimore.
That’s why I’d just go back to Amon-Ra St. Brown at +210. That seems to be the only weak spot for the Ravens thus far in 2023, with three TDs allowed to receivers and only three TDs combined to RBs and TEs.
I know it’s chalky, but I think this is a game where Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' running game does whatever they can to keep Goff off the field. Jackson and Gus Edwards could each score in this spot, but I will likely go with Gus Bus at +180.
Verdict: Bet Amon-Ra St. Brown at +210 and Gus Edwards at +180.
This one is gross.
Tyson Bagent vs. Brian Hoyer is a game I might watch a total of 30 seconds of, but if I’m betting any touchdown scorers, the list starts and stops with Jakobi Meyers.
The Raiders' WR2 leads all players in targets inside the 10-yard line while the Bears defense has allowed seven TDs to the position.
Take Davante Adams if you want the “safer” pick, but Meyers has done nothing but score since becoming a Raider.
Verdict: Bet Jakobi Meyers TD at +260.
Commanders vs. Giants
Welcome to the Jahan Dotson game.
With only one touchdown to his name, this is a game where Dotson can break out in a hurry.
The Giants play man coverage at a top rate in the NFL and Dotson has CRUSHED man coverage in his career. For example, last season vs. the Giants, he had nine catches for 160 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
This is a game made for outside receivers like Dotson and Terry McLaurin. Don’t get me wrong, I still love my guy Curtis Samuel, but Dotson is the guy we need.
Verdict: Bet Jahan Dotson +300 or Terry McLaurin at +225.
The Cardinals have only given up five touchdowns to wide receivers, and three of them were to Ja’Marr Chase, but the Seahawks' wideouts are who you want in this game.
The Cardinals rank bottom five in catches and yards to wideouts in 2023 and allow the highest completion percentage on passes 15 yards or more.
And guess who leads Seattle in targets, air yards and average depth of target?
Verdict: Bet DK Metcalf at +140.
How can you look at the touchdown odds for this game and not immediately bet a unit on Cooper Kupp?
Since the start of the 2021 season, Kupp has had plus odds to score a touchdown in five of 28 regular season games. In those contests, he scored in three of them, got hurt in another and the fifth game was his first game back in 2023. He finished with eight catches (12 targets) and 118 receiving yards.
Verdict: Why are you still reading this? Go bet Cooper Kupp TD at plus odds.
I won’t BS you, this is a game I want no part of.
The TD odds are steamed and both offenses can’t be counted on. Unless you’re a Packers or Broncos fan, or have a bet on the side/total, you won’t be watching more than 10 minutes of this game.
Verdict: Hard Pass.
The top selections for touchdown scorers all have a premium in this matchup.
That means Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Austin Ekeler will each have steamed odds to score. That doesn’t mean don’t bet them, but it means be prepared for limited upside on the return.
That’s why I’d consider someone like Josh Palmer, who should’ve had a touchdown last week against Cowboys only to have it called back due to a penalty. Palmer has immediately slotted into the Mike Williams role for the Chargers, but he hasn’t gotten the same anytime touchdown respect with the Canadian’s odds to score at +275 in Week 7. Considering how much the Chargers will likely need to throw to keep pace with the Chiefs, and the fact that he scored in both games vs KC last year, it’s a solid choice.
As for the Chiefs, the options are quite limited, but you can’t go wrong with Rashee Rice at +240. He has two touchdowns in six games and with so much attention on Kelce (who scored three TDs in their last matchup), Rice seems to have the inside track when in the red zone as he has eight targets (seventh in NFL) when the Chiefs are in scoring territory.
Verdict: Bet Josh Palmer +275 and Rashee Rice at +240.
Week 7 Anytime Touchdown Scorer Best Bets
Cooper Kupp
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +115
Kupp has 24 touchdowns in 28 regular-season games with Matthew Stafford as his starting quarterback. In two games this season, he has one touchdown and four red-zone targets.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Kupp has had plus-money odds to score a touchdown in five of those 28 regular-season games. He scored in three of them, got hurt in one and the fifth was his first game of the season against the Eagles that saw him have eight catches on 12 targets for 118 yards.
Kupp will be facing a Steelers team here that plays a lot of man coverage, but it doesn’t really matter. He could be playing the 49ers and I’d bet this number.
Keenan Allen
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +155
For my money, Allen is a top-five WR in the NFL. He was hurt for most of last season, so I feel like a lot of people forgot about him.
Allen is fifth in the NFL in catches and fourth in receiving touchdowns. He has seen six targets inside the 10-yard line this season, which is third in the NFL.
My favorite part about Allen is that the Chargers don’t just stick him on the outside. He plays in the slot about 30% of his snaps and moves around plenty.
The Chiefs secondary has been very good against perimeter receivers but has struggled against WRs in motion. Four of the five TDs this defense has allowed to opposing wide receivers saw that player in motion.
Allen didn’t score against the Chiefs last season, but he had scored in three straight games against K.C. before then.
KhaDarel Hodge
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +1400
MyCole Pruitt
Anytime Touchdown Scorer +1900
Two positions that killed the Buccaneers defense last season were slot receiver and tight end. This season, Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom 10 in catches allowed to slow receivers, but the touchdowns haven’t been there yet.
These are two long shots based on that theory. I’m only playing one-half unit on each.
The Falcons used Olamide Zaccheus in the slot last season against the Buccaneers, and he scored in both games. (Pruitt did, as well.) Hodge is playing more snaps than Mack Hollins or Scotty Miller over the last three games.
Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts are a coin flip at tight end, but they each only play about 10 more snaps per game than Pruitt, who is playing more than 40% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps and has already seen two red-zone targets this season.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Pruitt has scored seven touchdowns. Smith and Pitts have a combined six in that time.
