Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL player props for Sunday Week 17.
NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Packers vs. Vikings |
| Dolphins vs. Browns |
| Jets vs. Bills |
| Raiders vs. Saints |
| Colts vs. Giants |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers |
| Titans vs. Jaguars |
| Cowboys vs. Eagles |
Packers vs. Vikings
I’ve been waiting for a decent game to get back on the Jayden Reed train, and this one matches up perfectly.
Reed has done well in games without Christian Watson in his career with four touchdowns scored in five games (three receiving, one rushing) since the start of last season while racking up 36 targets in those games. He also played a season-high 76% of snaps in the game Watson missed against the Rams in Week 5 and has been the Packers best receiver against zone defenses this season with 3.05 yards per route run.
When Reed played in Minnesota last season (without Watson), he scored two receiving touchdowns on 10 targets and also scored on them when the Vikings went to Green Bay in Week 4. Even though Minnesota ranks second in defensive DVOA against the pass, we’ve still seen the Vikings allow 17 touchdowns allowed to receivers (tied for fourth most), so let’s keep at it with Reed this week.
Although I can easily make a case for why I like WR Justin Jefferson to score again this week, I'd rather just take WR2 Jordan Addison at this stage because he’s second on the Vikings with eight receiving touchdowns and has done well against zone defenses, which the Packers play at a top-seven rate. When they played earlier in the season, Addison scored a receiving touchdown and a rushing touchdown and he has 12 red-zone targets in just the last five games.
Verdict: Jayden Reed +190 | Jordan Addison +175
Dolphins vs. Browns
This has the makings of an ugly game. It has a total of less than 40 and the Browns are starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson again in a game with awful weather.
Thompson-Robinson struggled in his first start this season and considering he couldn’t even score a touchdown against the horrendous Bengals defense, it’s hard to ignore the red flags. Unless you want to take a shot on Thompson-Robinson (+400), I’d sit out on betting Browns touchdown scorers this week.
As for the Dolphins, this could be a blowout with little success in the passing game. Naturally, WR Tyreek Hill is who you’d want to be since he’s had the most success against man defenses this season and the Browns play it at a top-three rate.
At +130, I don’t hate the idea of betting on Hill but if this is a two-score game in the second half, I expect the Dolphins to park the bus and run it a lot. With that, let’s throw a dart on RB Raheem Mostert (+400) instead. He’s still getting red-zone touches even if RB De'Von Achane is the stud now and if the game gets out of reach, the Dolphins may rest Achane to set him up for a Week 18 clash with the Jets.
Verdict: Tyreek Hill +130 | Raheem Mostert +400 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson +400
Jets vs. Bills
The Jets injury report looks like a CVS receipt in Week 17. Top players like WR Davante Adams or CB Sauce Gardner aren’t practicing and at this stage of the season with the Jets eliminated, it doesn’t make sense to push them back into the lineup.
It looks like Adams will still give it a go, and he’s been such a huge target for QB Aaron Rodgers with five touchdowns in the last four games. We could pivot to WR2 Garrett Wilson, who should see the bulk of targets if Adams doesn’t play, but I’d rather go back to WR3 Allen Lazard (+500). He hasn’t scored in his last four games but does have five touchdowns this season and caught one against the Bills earlier this year.
The Bills touchdown bet that lines up with all the data should go to WR Keon Coleman, who has thrived this season against man defense, which the Jets play at a top-eight rate in the NFL. The issue is there’s likely going to be rain and bad weather in Buffalo this week, which makes me iffy on taking a receiver that might depend on the deep ball.
Instead, I’m going to pivot to an old friend in TE Dawson Knox (+400). He’s been playing more snaps than Dalton Kincaid since the latter returned from injury and scored his only touchdown this year against the Jets. Knox is a bit of a hunch on my part, so don’t bet him unless you are OK with potential pain.
Verdict: Allen Lazard +500 | Dawson Knox +400
Raiders vs. Saints
The Saints were so pathetic in Green Bay last week with QB Spencer Rattler that I’m close to banning touchdown bets for this squad for the rest of the season. Rattler quarterbacked the only team to get shut out this season, but it's just one game.
Things change from week to week and now the Saints get a bit of an easier matchup in the Raiders defense. At this stage, you could just bet both Saints tight ends in Foster Moreau (+750) and Juwan Johnson (+650) and split a unit on them. The Raiders defense ranks in the bottom five in the NFL against the short pass and bottom seven against tight ends. Both of those guys have short average depths of target, which helps because Rattler is allergic to completing a deep ball.
I wish I could give you a reason not to go chalk and take TE Brock Bowers, but I really can’t at this stage. He’s started to show life against man defenses after struggling against it earlier this season. The Saints play man at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, so I expect QB Aidan O’Connell to continue to feed his rookie standout. I'm not worried that the Raiders have only allowed one touchdown to a tight end this season.
Verdict: Foster Moreau +750 | Juwan Johnson +575 | Brock Bowers +175
Colts vs. Giants
The swing of how you bet Colts touchdown scorers can be tough because it’s two different approaches with Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco.
With Richardson, you want pass-catchers to be over +300 to score when possible because the offense will mostly be a run-first unit. Richardson also throws a decent deep ball and the Giants are last in defensive DVOA against the long pass.
If Richardson is starting, we go with Alec Pierce since he plays the second-most snaps for Colts receivers and leads the team in aDOT. If Flacco starts, get in on WR Josh Downs ASAP since he has been the most consistent Colts receiver this season with five touchdowns while leading the team in targets despite missing some time.
At this stage of the season, the Giants are heavily favored to finish with the worst record and get the first pick in the 2025 draft. I’ve recommended QB Drew Lock to score over the last two weeks, but his scramble rate has dropped off a cliff.
Let’s pivot and go with WR Wan’Dale Robinson at +400. Lock’s target depth is super low and while Robinson hasn’t been a regular touchdown scorer, he’s still seen five red-zone targets over the last three games.
Still, I’ll likely pass on the Giants this week given the stakes.
Verdict: Alec Pierce +350 | Josh Downs +260 | Wan’Dale Robinson +400
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Another Panthers game where I’ll make a case on why I like WR Adam Thielen to score.
Thielen has become QB Bryce Young’s go-to receiver and has led the Panthers in targets in four straight games. He’s also been the most effective this season against zone and leads the Panthers in target share against that defense while the Bucs use zone at the sixth-highest rate.
For what it's worth, Thielen did score against the Bucs when they played earlier this season, and all of his five red-zone targets have come over the last five games.
WR Mike Evans has a target on his back over the next two games since the Bucs have openly talked about targeting him to continue his 1,000-yard receiving streak. That likely happens this week with Panthers CB Jaycee Horn listed as questionable. Evans went off the last time these teams played with a highlight touchdown catch to go with 112 yards. Sportsbooks have since adjusted his touchdown odds now so it's tough to get value on that.
WR Jalen McMillan is the pivot since he’s now scored in three straight games and the Bucs receiver room is a bit of a mess with all of the injuries it has had to deal with. At +200 or better, McMillan would be the choice since the Panthers rank bottom in the three in defensive DVOA against the pass and the deep ball. McMillan has the highest aDOT on the team, so this is a matchup for him.
Verdict: Adam Thielen +250 | Jalen McMillan +200
Titans vs. Jaguars
This might be the most “Revenge Game” of all “Revenge Games” when it comes to Titans WR Calvin Ridley. The former Jaguars receiver has made it known his negative feelings towards the organization and while I tend to not get caught up in those factors, Ridley actually has a decent case to be wagered on since the Jaguars play man defense at a top-three rate. Ridley leads the Titans in target share and yards per route run against man defenses and also leads the team aDOT.
Well, the Jags defense is last in completed passes of 20 or more yards and 40 or more yards while ranking last in defensive DVOA against the pass. Because of how bad the Jags are, we’ll take both Ridley and WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (+320) since it doesn’t matter what defense the Titans are facing of late and Westbrook-Ikhine simply finds a way to score.
I know he had a brutal fumble last week, but I’m going back to TE Brenton Strange (+450). Rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. has been such a deep threat, but I expect the Titans to take the deep ball away and make QB Mac Jones live with the short completions underneath. That would give Strange more looks.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley +205 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +320 | Brenton Strange +450
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Once you know that we're dealing with a pair of backup quarterbacks, it makes you want to not watch the game.
QB Cooper Rush has struggled with this team healthy and now that he won't have his top WR CeeDee Lamb for the final two games of the season. Unless you want to take a crazy long shot like Rush at +1600, I’d pass on Cowboys this week.
With QB Jalen Hurts out, the Eagles run game should still succeed. The ability to convert on third and fourth down will now come down to QB Kenny Pickett, who was shaky last week against the Commanders.
A full week of practice should help Pickett, so I’ll take WR DeVonta Smith again at +230. WR A.J. Brown will likely be matched up with CB Daron Bland, who will have plenty of safety help. If you wanted to bet on Brown at +165, it's not an awful price. Smith, though, has been my go-to guy. He has scored in six of the last nine games without TE Dallas Goedert and four of six games this season.
Verdict: DeVonta Smith +230 | Sprinkle on Cooper Rush +1600
