Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's on a game's spread or total or even a player prop.
I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime TD scorers market.
Every week, I go through every NFL game on Sunday afternoon to identify the players you should consider betting on the anytime TD scorers market and whether the odds are worth the investment. Sometimes, that means going beyond the clear favorites.
Let's break down my NFL player props for Sunday Week 18.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Seahawks vs. Rams
I have one angle for the Seahawks, but it has little to do with the matchup.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett loves to close the season out with a bang. He has scored a touchdown in the Seahawks' final game of the regular season in six straight seasons. His role has obviously been heavily reduced this year with the emergence of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but this could be Lockett's last game with the team he has spent his entire NFL career with, so I wouldn’t mind some action on Lockett to capture the magic one more time against a defense that is resting for the playoffs.
With the Rams expected to sit the majority of key starters with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, I’m likely passing on betting any of their touchdown scorers this week. This might be closer to a preseason game for head coach Sean McVay, and I don't want anything to do with his team if Garoppolo is under center.
Verdict: Tyler Lockett +340
Dolphins vs. Jets
There’s not much to be excited about for the Dolphins offense with Tyler Huntley at QB. Sure, he dinked and dunked all over the Browns last week, but Cleveland looked checked out and ready to end the season. I’m not convinced he can do that two games in a row. The Jets defense isn’t really an intimidating unit at this point in the season, but Huntley doesn’t have the passing upside of Tua Tagovailoa.
As a result, a premium needs to be added to all Dolphins pass catchers. I do think TE Jonnu Smith (+210) isn’t a terrible idea if you're interested in investing in Miami this week. He caught Huntley's lone touchdown pass last week, and both of Huntley's passing touchdowns this season were to Smith. It’s also worth noting that of Huntley's 10 career passing touchdowns in the regular season, eight went to tight ends.
I do expect QB Aaron Rodgers to play in this game but can’t say for sure that he’ll make it through the whole thing. Rodgers has seemed checked out over the last month, but he has still consistently targeted WR Davante Adams (+140).
Rodgers still hasn't gotten his 500th passing touchdown yet, and Adams has made it known he wants to be one to catch it. This pick is super chalky, but Adams has 11 red-zone targets over the last five games with four receiving touchdowns. The only reason we saw WR Garrett Wilson get a touchdown is that backup QB Tyrod Taylor came in while Rodgers and Adams sat in the fourth quarter of the Jets' blowout loss to Buffalo.
Verdict: Jonnu Smith +210 | Davante Adams +145
49ers vs. Cardinals
One of my best calls of the season for touchdown props was when I bet Kyler Murray to score a touchdown against the Niners at +300. He hadn’t scored yet for the season and proceeded to score in the first quarter with the Cardinals going on to upset San Francisco.
Now, I like him to score again this week, but it’s worth mentioning that there’s an incentive attached. He needs a touchdown and 50+ rush yards to get a $750,000 bonus. My colleague Brian Matthews alerted me that parlaying those two props is as high as +900 at some sportsbooks. While I do think Murray can achieve both, I’ll play it safe at +175, but that's something to consider if you want to sprinkle on a longer shot.
As for the 49ers, I’m ready to reinvest in QB Josh Dobbs. The one thing we know Dobbs can do is run the ball in the red zone, which he did very well last season for the Vikings and Cardinals.
You could argue this is a “revenge game” for Dobbs since he was with Arizona last season and at +300, I’d be willing to invest in him making a run for himself since he scored six rushing touchdowns last year and scored in Week 17 on mop-up duty against the Lions.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +175 | Josh Dobbs +330
Chiefs vs. Broncos
There’s only one guy I want to bet on the Chiefs this week, and that’s QB Carson Wentz.
Wentz has fallen out of favor with a few teams in his career, but he’s always been scrappy with his scrambling ability, especially in the red zone. Wentz could be using this game for an audition to another team in 2025 and if/when the Chiefs get near the goal line, I can definitely see him calling his own number to try to score. If you recall, Wentz was in a similar situation last season for the Rams as a Week 18 starter and scored a rushing touchdown on an insane 17 carries against the 49ers.
For Denver, I’m all-in on Marvin Mims Jr. I’ve bet on Mims now in four straight weeks, and he’s rewarded me with a score in two of those games. The Broncos continue to find ways to get Mims involved in the offense and with the Chiefs defense resting starters, he could be in another monster game.
The Broncos need to win this game and will empty their bag of tricks to do so against a resting Chiefs team that will be without most of its big names since it has already clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Verdict: Carson Wentz +600 | Marvin Mims +250
Chargers vs. Raiders
As of 11 p.m. ET on Saturday night, Caesars was the only sportsbook to have posted touchdown odds for this game. If the Steelers had beaten the Bengals, the Chargers would have been locked into the No. 6 seed, and there was uncertainty on sportsbooks' behalf as to how Los Angeles would treat this game.
Since there wasn't much of a market, I didn't make any picks for this game. If I lock in any bets, be sure to follow me in the Action App to get an instant notification.
Texans vs. Titans
