Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited whether with the spread, total, or with player props. This also applies for the Anytime Touchdown Scorers market. Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and decide if the betting odds are worth the investment.
NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers: Week 1
Is this the year we finally fall in love with Kyle Pitts? The tight end actually has a competent quarterback to throw him the ball in QB Kirk Cousins and has been the “promised one” since he was drafted fourth overall in 2021.
Although the Steelers were sixth in defensive DVOA against TEs last season, the last time we saw them, they were getting torched by the Bills TE duo of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, both of whom scored a touchdown, in the AFC Wild Card round.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring in this game but if you’re betting any Steelers, my list stops and ends with RB Najee Harris at +200. Pittsburgh may not fare well with Russell Wilson throwing against this secondary and with RB2 Jaylen Warren getting an injury during preseason, so I'd rather bank on the Steelers RB1, who has 28 touchdowns in 52 career games.
Verdict: Najee Harris at +200 | Kyle Pitts at +250 or better
There are lots of options to choose from for the Dolphins, but it can be difficult to narrow down because they ranked in the top five in both passing and rushing touchdowns.
If we’re just using 2023 data, the signs point to RB2 De’von Achane at +120. The Jags allowed the most targets and receptions to RBs last season, and Achane out-targetted RB1 Raheem Mostert despite playing four fewer games. I don’t love the odds for Achane, so I want to try RB3 Jeff Wilson Jr. at +1100. Wilson is familiar with head coach Mike McDaniel’s system and could see snaps in the red zone given his ability to catch passes.
This might be the game for long shots for me because there’s a lot of unknowns for both teams. In Jacksonville, who will be the WR1 with Calvin Ridley gone? Will TE Evan Engram finally be a TD threat after so many wasted targets? Is Travis Etienne going to be involved in the passing offense more?
I’m not ready to answer those questions before Week 1, so I’m going to grab the guy who was the only profitable Jaguars okayer last season: second-year WR Parker Washington at +700. Washington missed the first six games of the season but caught two touchdowns in his final nine. I’ll take a shot that the Jags target him again in the end zone.
Verdict: Bet Devon Achane at +120 (if you want to be safe) or Jeff Wilson Jr. at +1100 | Parker Washington at +700
Man, what a s*** show of a game this game could be. Both teams are picked to finish near the bottom of the standings with quarterbacks who neither team wants.
For the Vikings, I’m a bit worried about banking on QB Sam Darnold as a passer. In 66 career games, he only has thrown three or more touchdowns in a game four times and has only done it once in his last 31 games as a starter. That’s why we’re getting half-decent TD odds for Justin Jefferson (+140) and WR2 Jordan Addison (+300). Considering Addison scored seven touchdowns in his first eight games last year, he’s who I lean toward.
If the Giants are scoring, it’s likely going to be with the pass, but I can’t get there yet with WR Malik Nabers at +175. By all accounts, he has all the talent in the world, but it’s still Daniel Jones throwing the ball. Jones only has 17 total TD passes in his last 22 regular-season games and is more efficient as a runner.
At this stage, I’d rather take a flier on WR Darius Slayton at +600 since he led all Giants WRs last year in snaps played, total targets and receiving touchdowns. If that isn’t worth it to you, then just avoid the G-Men altogether until we know more about what the offense will look like
Verdict: Jordan Addison at +310 | WR Darius Slayton at +650 if you want to live dangerously
Call me a “nice” hater, but I don’t expect a ton of scoring in this game. I know the total is at 44.5, but this game has under written all over it, especially with how the Bears defense improved. Chicago already ranked first last year in rushing yards allowed along with ranking second in rushing touchdowns. It’s part of the reason why I want to avoid RB1 Tony Pollard at +155, who had a much better situation last year in Dallas but only converted three touchdowns inside the 5-yard line. That was the fewest for any player with 10 or more red-zone carries inside the five.
Instead, we should bank on newly-signed Titans WR Calvin Ridley at +240. He was third in the NFL in red-zone targets last season (26), and he had a decent aDOT (14.5). That's good because the one encouraging trait about QB Will Levis is that he has a decent deep ball. Look for Ridley to make an immediate impact on his new team in Week 1.
The Bears are a bit of an anomaly for me because I can’t really pinpoint which part of the offense they'll hang their hat on. All three starting WRs boast skills worth betting on to score touchdowns, but I’d prefer to take a wait-and-see approach on QB Caleb Williams to see how he fares in his first NFL game.
Verdict: Calvin Ridley at +250 | Pass on Bears TD scorers until we have more info
I’m a believer of the Panthers this year, but they still have some weaknesses on defense they didn’t address. Last year, they were the worst rush defense according to defensive DVOA and gave up the most rushing touchdowns to RBs (21). For Saints TD bets, that doesn’t really narrow it down since they have RB1 Alvin Kamaraand QB/TE Taysom Hill lurking and ready to vulture. You could talk me into RB2 Jamaal Williams but only if it’s +300 or better.
My initial target for New Orleans is TE Juwan Johnson at +450. He’s healthy and doesn’t need to compete for red-zone targets with Jimmy Graham anymore. The Panthers were also one of the worst teams defending TE last year, ranking 29th in defensive DVOA against the position.
For the Panthers, I know WR Diontae Johnson is the shiny new toy but I still default to WR2 Adam Thielen. He only scored four times last season (his fewest since 2017) but still led the Panthers in nearly every receiving category (receptions, yards, red-zone targets and YAC). One of those four touchdowns last season came against the Saints in Week 2.
Verdict: Juwan Johnson at +450 | Adam Thielen at +360
I know TE Dalton Kincaid will be heavily featured in the Bills offense, but I also can’t forget my sweet prince in TE Dawson Knox. The latter isn’t quite as good as a receiver as Kincaid, but it’s worth noting that the Bills didn’t stop going to Knox when Kincaid arrived. They both finished with two receiving touchdowns, and Knox only had one less red-zone target. To me, that screams equity.
With the departure of WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, that likely means more two-TE sets for the Bills. At +450, I’ll bank on Knox in this matchup, considering Kincaid is all the way down to +170.
I want to bet on WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr., but I’m a bit nervous at +175. Harrison has all the traits to be a star, but he may see double-coverage a lot and Buffalo was still pretty decent in the secondary last year, ranking in the top 10 in passing touchdowns allowed and ninth in defensive DVOA against WR1.
We know RB James Conner will at least get the first crack at goal-line touches, so I'm OK with +170 for an RB1. However, at this stage, I think you need to just take QB Kyler Murray, especially if he’s over +300. Murray scored in his first three games after returning from injury last year and is another year removed from his ACL tear. At +360, let’s take the jitterbug to jitter.
Verdict: Dawson Knox at +450 | Kyler Murray at +360
This is the Week 1 game I want no part of for touchdowns bets, specifically on the Patriots side.
I wrote about this in my ATD preview for the season that if Jacoby Brissett is the QB, you should avoid passing TD props. His career-high was 18 passing touchdowns in 15 games with the Colts in 2019. Patriots pass-catchers combined for only 36 red-zone targets in 2023, the lowest in the league. Two of their three starting WRs have never even caught a TD pass in the NFL. If you want to take Brissett to run one in at +900, I’d be fine with that but don’t bet it below +700.
On the Bengals side, I’m avoiding them for this week until we know the status of WR1 Ja’Marr Chase. Even if he does play, he hasn’t been practicing in full and may be rusty against an aggressive Patriots defense, which is likely to be used differently than what we’ve become accustomed to under Bill Belichick. Now, WR2 Tee Higgins is dealing with a hamstring injury and his status is up in the air. So, I’m intrigued by WR3 Andrei Iosivas but only if you’re getting him at +400 or better.
There’s too many unknowns in this one to feel good about endorsing an ATD pick.
Verdict: Jacoby Brissett at +900 | Andrei Iosivas if he’s +400 or better
This game might have my favorite ATD bet of Week 1: Texans WR Tank Dell.
I’m very high on the Houston passing offense led by C.J. Stroud, and his connection with Dell was unmatched last year. Through the first 10 games of the 2023 season, Dell had seven touchdowns with four coming against zone coverage. When you dive into the data, it was Dell who became Stroud’s go-to receiver when Houston faced zone, as Dell also led the team in target share (28%). Well, the Colts played the most zone coverage in the NFL last season, and Dell diced Indy up for seven catches and a touchdown in Week 2.
If you’re betting on Colts ATDs, I get why you’d want to consider WR Michael Pittman Jr. In four games with Anthony Richardson at QB, he was a target machine with 32 targets, but it only led to one touchdown catch. Pittman can be frustrating to bet on for ATD props because he ranked 11th overall in total red-zone targets (19) in 2023 but once the Colts got close to the goal line, his targets would fall off a cliff with only four targets in that spot. Maybe this is the year we finally see Pittman used properly but with Richardson and stud RB Jonathan Taylor, those opportunities will likely be few and far between.
At this stage, I’d pass on Colts players for Week 1 until we know they won’t be running the ball 30+ times a week.
Verdict: Tank Dell at +275
I’m not going to pretend WR Courtland Sutton is going to be able to sustain the massive TD run he had in 2023 now with Bo Nix at QB. I expect Sean Payton to run the hell out of the ball and lean on RB1 Javonte Williams, who reportedly said he is feeling “the best he ever felt” in recent interviews.
Williams struggled out of the gate in 2023 but finished with five touchdowns in his final nine games of the season. His 37 red-zone carries easily led the Broncos with RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin only registering seven. Over one year removed now from his knee injury with a rookie QB in a tough environment, the run game is the way to go here.
I don’t want to bet on Seahawks tight ends, but we may have to given how the Broncos fared against them in 2023. Denver ranked last in the NFL in touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends (10) and last in defensive DVOA against the position.
With Colby Parkinson's departure to the Rams and TE Pharaoh Brown missing practice, the logical default would be TE1 Noah Fant at +475 unless you want to sprinkle on a long shot TE like Brady Russell (+2400) or AJ Barner (+1800).
Verdict: Javonte Williams at +200 or better | Noah Fant at +410 or better
In the “Most Motivated in Week 1” category, you may not find someone more motivated than Raiders WR Davante Adams.
If you recall, the Los Angeles Chargers social team implied the former All-Pro may be washed up in a post during the offseason. However, when you dive into the game logs, he torched the Chargers secondary with four touchdowns in four games and over 100 yards receiving in three of them.
Usually, my go-to WR for the Raiders is WR2 Jakobi Meyers, who's +310, but there’s just too much data to support going against Adams in this spot, especially since he was second in the NFL in red-zone targets (26) last season and third in targets inside the 10-yard line (14).
With Jim Harbaugh as head coach, I expect the Chargers run game to be the focal point of the offense and to run former Ravens RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards into the ground. Last season, Dobbins was Baltimore's clear RB1 heading into the season but tore his Achilles. Meanwhile, Edwards was a TD machine last year (13 rushing) and tied for first in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line (19).
Edwards is listed at +260 and Dobbins is hovering around +230. Given Harbaugh’s recent history and steady O-line, I’d side with Edwards in Week 1 until we know how Dobbins is going to be utilized.
Verdict: Davante Adams at +210 | Gus Edwards at +260
As a Cowboys fan, I’m very worried about how the offense may look in Week 1. The Browns defense was a top-rated unit that was fourth against the rush and second against the pass, according to defensive DVOA last season. On the flip side, QB Deshaun Watson is a total wild card who only started practicing recently after injuring his shoulder last season. Not to mention the Browns offensive line has injury concerns after three starters were lost to injury in 2023, which means the Cowboys pass-rush could feast with some sacks or turnovers.
If I’m betting a Cowboys player to score a TD in Week 1, I’m going to pass on WR CeeDee Lamb and TE Jake Ferguson and instead take WR2 Brandin Cooks at +300. Cooks is now the certified WR2 in this offense following the departure of WR Michael Gallup, and the vet may have a great matchup. The Browns defense, under Jim Schwartz, led the NFL in man coverage rate last season, which bodes well for Cooks, who had five touchdowns against man-coverage last season. The only two players who had more touchdowns than him were his teammate CeeDee Lamb and Raiders WR Davante Adams.
With Cooks leading the Cowboys in aDOT against both man and zone coverage last season, he could be in line for a long touchdown catch if the Browns have to double Lamb.
Verdict: Brandin Cooks at +320
Is there a more obvious target for ATD bets than WR Mike Evans? He embodied the “screw it, he’s down there somewhere” mentality for QB Baker Mayfield last year and is easily the best wide receiver he’s ever played with in the NFL. I don’t usually like to go chalk (+135), but this might be the best matchup Evans could ask for.
The Commanders gave up the most touchdowns to WRs last year (29), ranked last in defensive DVOA against WR1s, and ranked 30th in defensive DVOA against the deep pass. Well, Evans checks all of those boxes, especially with how he had eight TD catches of 20-yards or more, which ranked second in the NFL.
What’s more shocking? The fact that TE Zach Ertz is still in the league, or that he’s now the TE1 for the Commanders? I’m going with the latter, as I loved former Washington TE Logan Thomas, but Ertz has battled back through injury to make the team.
Over his last 17 regular-season games with the Cardinals, Ertz was low-key effective with 22 red-zone targets and five receiving touchdowns. The Bucs struggled against TE last season and ranked in the bottom three in targets, yards and touchdowns allowed to the position. With a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels, he may need to rely on a safety valve in Ertz. So, at +460, set it and forget it! I’ll sprinkle on Ertz while he’s healthy.
Verdict: Mike Evans at +135 | Sprinkle on Zach Ertz at +400 or better
