NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers | Week 12
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for the NFL Week 12 Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Week 12 Anytime Touchdown Previews
| Picks |
|---|
| Patriots vs. Giants |
| Bucs vs. Colts |
| Saints vs. Falcons |
| Panthers vs. Titans |
| Steelers vs. Bengals |
| Jaguars vs. Texans |
| Rams vs. Cardinals |
| Browns vs. Broncos |
| Chiefs vs. Raiders |
| Bills vs. Eagles |
This game is so gross that it’s laughable. With a total of 34 and a game featuring QBs Tommy DeVito or whomever the Patriots trek out there between Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, this is going to be a tough watch for touchdowns.
The Giants rate 28th in defensive DVOA against the run and have allowed 15 TDs to opposing running backs. The Patriots have so many turnovers and interceptions this year that they’re going to keep the ball on the ground and let DeVito make the mistakes.
Verdict: Bet Rhamondre Stevenson +150 (DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs. Colts
Look, I can’t fight it anymore. Bucs WR Mike Evans is the best offensive weapon they have. He's also in a contract year and looking to get paid. It seems like QB Baker Mayfield knows those variables because all he does is toss it to Evans now in scoring position. With TDs in seven of 10 games, you can try to talk yourself into Cade Otton or Chris Godwin, but Evans has been the main guy for Tampa Bay.
On the other side, with WR Josh Downs off the injury report, I expect him to come back strong for the Colts off their bye week. From Week 5-8, Downs was averaging almost eight targets per game and caught two touchdowns.
Verdict: Bet Josh Downs +285 (DraftKings) & Mike Evans +170 (FanDuel)
Two words: Rasheed Shaheed.
If Derek Carr is coming back from injury, we’re immediately targeting the one thing he can do well: throw the deep ball. The Falcons are 30th in DVOA against the pass and 24th against the deep ball. Well, guess who leads the Saints in average depth of target? You guessed it, Shaheed.
With Michael Thomas out, this is a great spot for Shaheed playing in a dome to take it over the top of the Falcons defense and score.
Verdict: Bet Rasheed Shaheed +310 (FanDuel)
The Titans rank 26th in defensive DVOA to the pass and rank 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1s. By default, that means you have to fire up Adam Thielen. Despite not having scored in over a month, Thielen has still gotten plenty of volume with double-digit targets in three of four games.
Maybe this is the end of the Derrick Henry era in Tennessee. He looked like he was running with cement in his shoes against the Jaguars last week, so let’s take a swing on backup Tyjae Spears. He’s played a role each week and is the passing-down back if the Titans fall behind in this game. I still don’t trust Will Levis enough to make accurate decisions further down the field, and the Panthers fare much better against the pass compared to the run.
Verdict: Bet Adam Thielen +240 (DraftKings) & Tyjae Spears +350 (DraftKings)
Am I taking crazy pills? I said to take Steelers RB Jaylen Warren last week against a tough Browns defense, and he broke a 75-yard TD run in his first game as the starting RB. After that, books are still pricing him behind Najee Harris. Guess I’m crazy then because Warren is infinitely better than Harris.
The Bengals' run defense is not as strong as previous iterations and we just saw the Ravens run all over them last week. The Steelers have zero pass game with Kenny Pickett at QB, so Warren is easily their best weapon. In a potential grinder of an AFC North matchup, take the more talented running back every time.
Verdict: Bet Jaylen Warren +195 (DraftKings)
The last time these two teams met, the Jaguars severely underestimated the Texans and got rolled on at home. I expect a much closer game this time around with a sense of urgency from the Jags, who could lose the division with another loss to Houston. Sportsbooks are also projecting more scoring with the total at 48.5, so nearly all the top skill players are steamed.
For the Jaguars, it’s a true case of “if not now, then when?” for TE Evan Engram. He has the most targets in the NFL without a TD and the Texans struggle defending tight ends, allowing the most catches and yards per game along with four TDs allowed to the position.
At this point, I’d just side with the Texans passing game and bet both Nico Collins and Tank Dell, each just below +200. C.J. Stroud continues to fire lasers and whether they come out strong like in the last game with three quick touchdowns or are trailing late, I’m starting to trust the rookie.
Verdict: Bet Evan Engram +275 (DraftKings) & Tank Dell +175 (bet365)/Nico Collins +190 (FanDuel)
If you read this column each week, you know I tend to gravitate to a lot of the same players. For this game, we immediately go back to Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.
Murray looks as fast as ever when escaping the pocket and has run for a TD in both of his games since making his season debut. He has become the focal point of the offense again and with RB James Connor behind him, it makes it even harder for defenses to spy him with a defender.
The Rams running defense is below average with 10 TDs allowed this season (ranked 23rd) while allowing 117 rush yards per game (ranked 21st). Another key factor about those 10 TDs is four were to QBs, which is tied for the most in the NFL. The QBs to score on this Rams defense this season: Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson and Kenny Pickett. The connection to all four of those is they all scored on 1-yard TDs in a "Tush Push" kind of play. Well, Murray doesn’t need a push from the 1-yard line because he can just outrun the edge like last week when he scored from one yard.
Verdict: Bet Kyler Murray +205 (DraftKings)
The word “elite” gets tossed around a lot these days, but the Browns pass defense fits the description. That unit is setting records in terms of receiving yards allowed. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has suddenly become relevant again and a lot of their season-long metrics have to be taken with a grain of salt.
With a game at a total of 36, it might seem reckless to bet multiple TD props. For these offenses, there’s no one I trust more than Kareem Hunt and Courtland Sutton.
Hunt didn’t score last week but still saw two red-zone carries in the Browns' win. He’s still outpacing Jerome Ford in red-zone carries per game and the Browns average the most rush attempts per game, creating enough room for both Hunt and Ford to eat.
For Sutton, this is the Mike Evans paradox: At some point, TD regression has to kick in … but why bet against it when it’s been so consistent? Sutton has a TD in all but two games this season and has made spectacular catches in the end zone in three straight games.
Verdict: Bet Kareem Hunt +260 (DraftKings) & Courtland Sutton +260 (Caesars)
I’m not going to overcomplicate this: Anything at +200 or more for Davante Adams is a bad price, and I will bet it every week until the odds correct themselves. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets with 17 and scored last week on a rising Dolphins defense.
I get the Chiefs with CB Trent MacDuffie are a revelation in the passing game and kept the Eagles throws in check. But this is still Davante Freakin’ Adams we’re talking about, the guy who leads the NFL in receiving TDs since the start of the 2020 season and also had 13 receiving TDs last season.
Adams had Anytime TD odds of +110 and -110 in the Raiders' two games against the Chiefs last year. With only four touchdowns this season, Adams is due for an explosive game and at +200, I’ll bet it at those odds every time.
Verdict: Bet Rashee Rice +230 (BetMGM) & Davante Adams +200 (FanDuel)
Outside of the Commanders, I can’t think of a better matchup for Eagles WRs DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown than this one.
Brown was held out of the end zone for the first time in a month while Smith just fell short of scoring against the Chiefs, going down at the 1-yard line on a long pass. They're +110 and +175 to score a touchdown this week and with how the Bills secondary has fared this year (15th in DVOA against the pass, 31st in DVOA vs WR2s, 24th in DVOA against deep passes), this is a game where I’d be comfortable rolling with both Eagles pass-catchers to score — although I lean to Smith over Brown based on the odds.
For the Bills, we should likely look at slot receivers with how the Eagles have struggled against that position and tight ends. The initial instinct is to go to TE Dalton Kincaid, but WR Khalil Shakir is the player I’m targeting at +390. He’s been playing over 70% of snaps in each of the last three games while seeing four or more targets in four of the last five games.
