NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers | Week 13
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for the NFL Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Week 13 Anytime Touchdown Previews
| Picks |
|---|
| Chargers vs. Patriots |
| Lions vs. Saints |
| Cardinals vs. Steelers |
| Falcons vs. Jets |
| Colts vs. Titans |
| Dolphins vs. Commanders |
| Broncos vs. Texans |
| Panthers vs. Buccaneers |
| 49ers vs. Eagles |
| Browns vs. Rams |
What nobody wants to admit in New England circles is they’re low-key tanking now. There’s no way to explain the recent QB moves from Bill Belichick and who the Patriots have thrown out there.
For this market, you could talk me into Rhamondre Stevenson since the Chargers rank 26th in DVOA against the run and 30th to opposing pass-catching RBs.
From the Chargers side, it’s TE Gerald Everett again. He scored last week in his return from injury and played more snaps than TE2 Donald Parham. The Patriots are 25th in DVOA defending the pass and 23rd against TEs. With both RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen at +120 or lower, Everett presents the best value.
Verdict: Rhamondre Stevenson +140 (bet365) & Gerald Everett +380 (FanDuel)
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The Saints receiver room is muddled with injuries. Chris Olave is likely to play but Rashid Shaheed isn’t practicing and Michael Thomas is out. That’s why I like TE Juwan Johnson in this spot. Johnson was a TD machine last season with seven in 16 games, but he only has one this season despite playing over 70% of snaps when he's healthy. The Lions defense has allowed five TDs to TE this year so unless you want to bet on Jamaal Williams at +425 in a “revenge” spot, Johnson fits the bill.
For the Lions, you likely want to avoid someone like WR Jameson Williams, who relies heavily on deep passes and leads the team in average depth of target. This matchup doesn’t suit him since the Saints are No.1 in DVOA stopping the deep pass but only 18th against the short pass. That points to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown or RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
Verdict: Juwan Johnson +360 (Caesars) & Amon-Ra St. Brown +130 (PointsBet)
If you read this column each week, you know I tend to gravitate to a lot of the same players. For this one, we immediately go back to Cardinals QB Kyler Murray.
Murray has now scored in three straight games since returning from injury and looks as fast as ever when escaping the pocket. Even with RB James Connor back, Murray has become the last resort at the goal line. As a result, two of the three TDs he’s scored have been from the 1-yard line.
In fairness, this isn’t a great matchup for Murray because the Steelers have only allowed six rushing TDs on the season and are yet to allow a QB to score on them from the run. That’s why we’re getting inflated odds to +275 compared to around +200 we’ve seen the last two weeks.
For the Steelers, this is the spot to grab TE Pat Freiermuth, who has become a safety blanket for Kenny Pickett. ‘Muth saw 10 targets for nine catches and 128 yards receiving against a pretty tough Browns defense last week. Just imagine how he’ll do when he sees the Cardinals, who rank 28th in DVOA to TE and have allowed five TDs to the position.
Verdict: Kyler Murray +300 (FanDuel) & Pat Freiermuth +380 (Caesars)
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Can we just set this game total to 20.5? This reeks of a 13-10 game. The idea that TD scorers in this contest will be a rewarding endeavor just seems like blasphemy.
The Jets have only scored five offensive TDs in the last seven games. RB Breece Hall (+150) or WR Garrett Wilson (+190) shouldn’t be below +300 in any game going forward with Tim Boyle or Zach Wilson at QB.
Then, you have the Falcons, who mismanage their assets (See Bijan Robinson) and have a QB who's inaccurate and facing a top-five team defending the pass. Barring the Falcons utilizing run-pass options properly, I can’t see them moving the ball downfield well enough to justify their ATD prices.
If you want to take a swing on TE Kyle Pitts to finally have an impact at +410, sure. The Jets have struggled against TEs this season (six TDs, last in NFL) but how could you feel great about that bet given what we’ve seen from the Falcons?
Verdict: Kyle Pitts +425 (DraftKings) — if you have to
The Titans defense is a major-league pass funnel. This week, the Colts face the second-ranked run defense without RB Jonathan Taylor.
I’d just target Colts pass-catchers and pray QB Gardner Minshew doesn’t get turnover-happy. WR2 Josh Downs would be a solid look considering he saw 13 targets in his return to the lineup and Titans rank 31st in DVOA to WR2.
I can’t bet on any Titans TD scorers for the time being until I can figure out this offense (good luck to me – and anyone else trying to do the same). Rookie QB Will Levis isn’t good enough to expose certain defensive matchups yet and RB Derrick Henry looks like he’s running with concrete in his shoes at times.
Verdict: Josh Downs +260 (PointsBet)
Sportsbooks have made it quite clear that if you want to pick a Dolphins player to score a TD, you’re going to pay a premium. The top options for TD scorers are all Dolphins with RB2 Jeff Wilson at +125 as the “lowest” option. Outside of maybe betting a longshot like Cedrick Wilson at +450, I’m likely going to pass on Miami this week.
As for the Commanders, the two players I want are WR Curtis Samuel and TE Logan Thomas. The Dolphins just lost a huge weapon in their pass-rush in Jaelyn Phillips and are 30th in DVOA to the short pass along with being 26th in DVOA to the TE. Thomas fits both of those with an average depth of target of 6.5. Samuel only played 55% of snaps vs Dallas and still caught nine passes for 100 yards.
Verdict: Logan Thomas +350 (FanDuel) & Curtis Samuel +400 (bet365)
Defense has picked up for the Broncos over the last five games with no opponent scoring more than 22 points. The Texans are a way different challenge as they push the ball downfield better than the majority of NFL teams.
That’s why I’d look at a long shot for the Texans like TE Brevin Jordan. Jordan only has one TD this season, but starting TE Dalton Schultz is unlikely to play. The Broncos have allowed a TE touchdown in three straight games and are 31st in defensive DVOA against TEs. At +600, I’m willing to take a swing on Brevin to take us to Heaven (yes, I’m a Dad).
Denver’s offense isn’t explosive enough to want to bet multiple TD scorers, but I like what I’ve seen out of RB2 Samaje Perine, who's Denver's pass-catching back and scored last week. RB1 Javonte Williams is getting the most work, but he hasn’t been very efficient. Perine at +425 is a much better value than Williams at +120.
Verdict: Brevin Jordan +425 (PointsBet) & Samaje Perine +400 (Caesars)
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Even after hitting two of the three touchdown bets from Tommy Tremble this season, I’ve had this specific matchup circled since Week 1. Tremble went off last season against the Bucs and scored in both games.
With my original plan, though, I didn't think Tremble would already have three TDs and steam his odds down to +750. The positive spin is the Bucs haven’t really been stopping TEs either because they rank as a bottom-five team in targets, bottom-10 in catches and yards to the position. Also, a TE has caught a TD on this defense in three of the last five games.
I’m willing to listen to any ideas on who to bet for Bucs TDs, but that doesn’t mean I’m willing to act on those ideas. Outside of WR Mike Evans, all that’s out there is pain for bettors. You can try Racchad White or Chris Godwin but when the camera pans to the end zone off a huge Mayfield bomb, don’t act shocked when its Evans pulling in the TD.
Verdict: Tommy Tremble +750 (PointsBet) & Mike Evans +160 (bet365)
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This one is tougher than it looks because while I do expect some touchdowns from this game, so do the sportsbooks. Seven players are +190 or lower, which is implying we’re going to see at least five touchdowns. While I don’t disagree, that doesn’t mean you go all-in on that assumption since this could become a defensive battle.
The “safe” approach would be to wait until closer to game time and see if the odds shift and increase where you’re able to get better value. For example, I love TE George Kittle for this one but don’t love that he's only +175. By kickoff, I predict this will be closer to +190, which is closer to fair value.
You could do the same with someone like RB D’Andre Swift, who’s around +160 and should be closer to +190
Verdict: Wait until closer to kickoff; target George Kittle & D'Andre Swift at +190 or higher
The Browns defense could be missing its two best players in DE Myles Garrett and CB Denzel Ward, and I’m still not convinced the Rams can put up more than 20 points in this game.
The Browns secondary has been wreaking havoc this season, with opposing QBs only managing 146 passing yards per game and less than one passing TD per game. I’m legit worried for Matthew Stafford’s health in this one so unless you want to bet RB Kyren Williams +100, I’d steer clear of the Rams here.
If you’re betting a Browns player, you can go with RB2 Kareem Hunt or TE David Njoku if you want to have true tilting frustration. Hunt will get red-zone carries if the Browns can actually move the ball and get in scoring position. Njoku, meanwhile, will definitely have a few targets in the end-zone but then you have to pray he hangs onto the ball or gets both feet inbounds.
