Betting an NFL parlay on touchdown scorers is incredibly fun, even if they’re mostly a losing proposition that will drain your bankroll if you’re not careful. Most sportsbooks tend to clean up on this type of bet, so how do we scratch the “parlay itch” without overextending ourselves financially?
Well, our experts have picked an anytime TD scorer for each of the three games on Thanksgiving.
Disclaimer: 21-1 parlays have less than a 5% chance of hitting, and that percentage only shrinks as you increase the parlay odds. Keep your expectations in check and bet on these for recreation.
Continue below for our NFL parlay picks for Thanksgiving.
NFL Parlay
- Jameson Williams Anytime TD Scorer (+220)
- CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
- Tyreek Hill Anytime TD Scorer (+150)
Parlay Odds: +2180 (FanDuel)
Bears vs. Lions Parlay Pick: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams has scored four touchdowns this season and I think this is a matchup he could exploit.
The Bears play zone defense at a top-10 rate and defend the short pass really well. In fact, they rank in the top five in defensive DVOA against short passed, but are bottom five against the deep ball.
The Bears have given up the sixth-most receptions of 20-or-more yards and the fifth-most catches of 40-or-more yards (8). They also rank 31st in defensive DVOA vs. WR2.
Williams has two touchdowns against zone coverage, is second on the team in target share and also leads the Lions in aDOT against zone coverage.
Giants vs. Cowboys Parlay Pick: CeeDee Lamb
By Nick Giffen
CeeDee Lamb has been targeted on 29% of routes vs. man coverage and on 27% of his routes run against zone. In terms of yardage, that converts to 3.4 yards per route run against man and 1.6 yards per route run against zone.
He's also scored three touchdowns against man coverage, compared to none against zone coverage. That's good news for this matchup because the Giants have played the fourth-most man coverage in the league over the past six weeks.
I project fair value on this prop at +155, so I'm grabbing the value at +180.
Dolphins vs. Packers Parlay Pick: Tyreek Hill
Tyreek Hill has scored two touchdowns in four games with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. Hill also has five red-zone targets in that span and both of his touchdowns have come on plays that started inside the 10-yard line.
Hill is obviously a lethal deep threat, but it's encouraging that he's picked up short-yardage touchdowns as the Packers have been decent at limiting the deep ball.
Green Bay will be without All-Pro corner Jaire Alexander in this game, which helps, and the poor weather will also be a story. However, it's not like Hill has been invisible in poor-weather games.
He scored in Kansas City last season on a 53-yard receptions and was +155 in that game. When the Dolphins played in Buffalo in 2022, Hill scored a 20-yard touchdown and was +145 in that game.
I thought this was going to be closer to +120, so I like the value at +150.
