Don't be surprised if a couple of teams trip up against the spread in Week 7.
Historical data indicates that performances in the early weeks can lead to certain teams being overvalued for ATS picks. Thankfully, tools like PRO Systems and Bet Labs pinpoint when teams become overhyped.
Among the various betting strategies available in PRO, the "Fade Covering Teams" system comes to the forefront for Sunday of Week 7 and spotlights two teams whose ATS picks may be worth a closer look this weekend.
Let's get into all the crucial details, including a couple of hefty Sunday spreads.
NFL ATS Picks: Week 7 Predictions Using Expert Model
In past seasons, teams that consistently outshine expectations against the spread eventually regress.
This trend becomes particularly pertinent as we enter into the midway point of the season.
Thanks to meticulously crafted PRO Systems, it’s possible to identify precisely when a team’s early-season performance might start to wane. This PRO System begins in Week 5, and rolled out a couple regression candidates for Week 7.
Among the matchups raising eyebrows, the Titans vs. Bills contest sticks out.
The Bills, a -9 favorite, epitomize a "fade" candidate.
The Fade Covering Teams PRO Systems shows that in Week 5 and beyond, when teams covering the spread by more than five points per game face a team with a win percentage between 0-60%, the hot, covering team only covers 43% of the time.
Doesn't it make sense? Solid, past performances typically drive up market prices. Throw in a mediocre opponent, and you have yourself a solid recipe of backing undervalued teams against the spread.
Surpassing the closing line by over 5.67 points per game, the Bills' strong start is due to taper off. The Titans +9 is a sensible option for those relying on ATS picks grounded in historical betting trends.
In another intriguing matchup, the lowly Panthers take on the upstart Commanders.
The Commanders, led by rookie quarterback sensation Jayden Daniels, have exceeded expectations, covering the spread by over eight points per game.
However, PRO Systems suggest that this performance may not hold. Therefore, the Panthers at +7.5 could be a bold look.
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that's where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
