Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
There were two Luck Rankings totals this week — Colts vs. Patriots in Germany and Panthers vs. Bears on Thursday night — and one luck ranking matchup — Packers vs. Steelers. That Germany game got us back above .500 in the luck total category, but the Steelers once again proved to be lucky in covering at home. Unlucky teams meeting our luck criteria are 7-8-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-62-6 overall since 2018 in luck-based matchups.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the math behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at Expected Scores and comparing them to Actual Scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations encountered.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 10
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. New England Patriots (+2)
- Actual Result: Colts 10, Patriots 6
- Expected Score: Patriots 2o, Colts 15
- Swing: 9 points, 40.2% win probability
For the third time in 10 games, the Patriots failed to score seven points. Our models had their expected score at 20 points because of a missed field goal and multiple interceptions.
New England's bad luck really began with a 35-yard missed field goal by rookie Chad Ryland halfway through the third quarter. Trailing by four points, Ryland had just under a 95% chance to split the uprights, taking an expected 2.8 points off the board.
On the next Patriots offensive possession, they drove to the Colts' 9-yard line and had first and goal with 14:16 remaining in the fourth quarter. An incomplete pass from Mac Jones to Hunter Henry on third down ended in a field goal to cut the deficit to four. The drive had an expected points outcome of 5.3 but ended with just three.
The Patriots once again drove the ball down the field when Mac Jones under-threw Mike Gesicki in the end zone, with the ball landing right in the hands of Colts safety Julian Blackmon at the 1-yard line. They had a max expected points of 4.9 on the first-and-10 play right before the Jones pick.
On the final drive, Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe, who faked a spike and threw an interception into triple coverage with 36 seconds left, ending the game and a potential New England comeback.
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2. Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- Actual Result: Bears 16, Panthers 13
- Expected Score: Bears 19, Panthers 6
- Swing: 10 points, 32.1% win probability
This game had an actual score much different than the expected and depending on what side of the spread you bet on, the margins were awfully slim.
There were three key plays that changed the outcome in this one. The first was the Panthers' only touchdown, which was a 79-yard punt return by Ihmir-Smith Marsette in the first quarter. This was a four-point difference from expected points on the drive (5.5-1.5).
The Bears had chances to score touchdowns of their own on their last two possessions of the first half. Both drives, which ended with less than 4 minutes left ended in 30+ yard field goals. Those six combined points left them two points short of their expected total.
Bears backers, especially at -3.5, can feel hard done by because they outplayed the Panthers and should have covered this spread with ease.
3. Tennessee Titans (+2.5)
- Actual Result: Buccaneers 20, Titans 6
- Expected Score: Buccaneers 17, Titans 13
- Swing: 10 points, 27.4% win probability
While the Titans still would not have covered the spread with this expected score, this game should have been much closer than a two-touchdown difference.
It all began when the Bucs turned a first-and-10 screen pass into a 43-yard touchdown to Rachaad White in the second quarter. That play was a four-point difference in the expected points for the drive. Longer TDs, especially from bottom-half offenses (by DVOA) like Tampa Bay against top-half defenses like Tennessee, particularly contribute to bad beats.
Early in the fourth quarter, the Titans were in prime position to score a touchdown with first and goal from the 6-yard line. Two incomplete passes and a Derrick Henry rush for minus-3 yards later, Tennessee was forced to kick a field goal, turning 5.5 expected points into just three for the Titans.
Tennessee wasn't out of it just yet. It moved the ball on its third- and second-last possessions, which ended in zero points. The first of those two drives ended with Will Levis forcing a moon ball that was intercepted by Antoine Winfield Jr. near midfield. The second was a short five-play drive that saw Levis go 1-for-4 and get sacked as the Titans turned the ball over on downs.
Both drives had potential, and we'd expect at least one field goal from them, if not more.
