NFL Best Bets & Wild Card Picks: Expert Against-the-Spread & Over/Under Bets
Welcome to the playoffs, for which our staff has NFL best bets for the first day of games on Saturday.
We have betting analysts making a case for the Browns on the road in Houston against the Texans, as well as a couple of ways to back the Dolphins in Kansas City.
Check out our NFL best bets & Wild Card picks and picks for Saturday's doubleheader.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Browns vs. Texans
There are a few standout reasons that make me comfortable with backing the road favorite. We have a previous matchup earlier this season between these two teams. The Browns looked dominant over the Texans earlier this season, winning that meeting 36-22, a two score win that included the Texans scoring two late meaningless touchdowns to make it look closer. It was 36-7 with fewer than seven minutes left in the game.
If we take a closer look at that specific contest, Texans backers will point to Davis Mills starting and not having rookie standout C.J. Stroud. I would counter and say Stroud not having any experience vs the elite Cleveland defense will make it harder for him to break through.
Quarterbacks making their first playoff start are 17-36 since 2002. That is bleak, especially when going up against Joe Flacco, who is tied with the most road wins for a QB in NFL history, securing seven of them.
Finally, the schedule allowed the Browns' priority players to have Week 18 off while the Texans were eeking out a win over the Colts on the road. The rest and preparation disparity should favor the Browns as well.
Pick: Browns -2 (-110)
Browns vs. Texans
The Browns have traveled to Houston and won this season once already and I expect them to do it again on Saturday.
The absence of C.J. Stroud in that game was noticeable, but it was the Texans' inability to stop the Browns' passing attack that really stood out. Joe Flacco averaged 8.8 yards per attempt against a secondary that had no answer for Amari Cooper. I trust the coach of the year, Kevin Stefanski, to once again implement a pass-heavy gameplan that has troubled the Houston defense this season.
The Texans allowed an explosive pass — defined as a gain of 20+ yards — at the league's third-highest rate over the last four weeks of the season, while the Browns had the second-highest explosive pass rate (13.8%) over that same span.
The Browns' defense has the second-best pass defense DVOA, and has the best third-down defense in football. The Cleveland defense boasts a league-best 68% adjusted completion as well, when factoring in such things as drops, spikes and throwaways.
Not only do we get to back a passing offense with the clear matchup advantage, and the better defense, but we also have the benefit of the more experienced quarterback. Per Evan Abrams of Action Network, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against an experienced signal caller have only covered the spread at a 32% rate.
I'd bet the Browns up to -2.5.
Pick: Browns -2 (-110)
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Browns vs. Texans
By Nick Giffen
For as big of a turnaround as the Houston Texans made this season, they are notoriously slow starters. They scored a touchdown on their opening drive just twice in their 17 games this season, and have only 17 first-half touchdowns all season. Couple that with the fact that this is C.J. Stroud's first playoff start, and I expect the Browns to jump ahead early.
On the flip side, the Cleveland Browns have a veteran and playoff-tested quarterback in Joe Flacco, and they've jumped out early frequently since he took over under center. The Browns have scored 11 first-half touchdowns in Flacco's five starts, and that includes four games in which the Browns' first drive resulted in a touchdown.
I lean toward the Texans to cover this game, but like the Browns to cover in the first half. It's worth noting that a Browns first half/Texans end of regulation parlay at +750 is great value as well. Would be a bet on Stroud getting more comfortable as he gets into the game.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
By Chris Raybon
Per our Action Labs data, teams averaging at least 7.5 yards per pass attempt after removing sack yardage are 32-15 (68%) ATS against teams averaging fewer than 7.5 since 2011, covering by 3.6 points per game.
The market also tends to underrate the possibility of upsets in the opening round of the playoffs. This has especially been true with the No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed matchup, with 6-seed underdogs going 20-14 (59%) ATS over the past two decades and winning nine of the last 12 outright dating back to the 2017 postseason, according to our Action Labs data.
Also per Action Labs: Wild Card Round road dogs +7 or less are 30-18-1 (62.5%) ATS since 2003, covering by 1.9 points per game.
Bet to: +3.5
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Dolphins vs. Chiefs
This looks like a dream matchup between two great offenses, but only if you haven't been paying attention. Mahomes and the Chiefs offense haven't looked right all season and Chiefs games are 12-5 to the under and averaging just 39.1 points per game, with the Chiefs scoring 21 or less in 10 games. The Dolphins have obviously put up some huge numbers but went under the posted 43.5 total in three of the last four games with colder temperatures and injuries slowing things down.
Wild Card Round games in non-division matchups with a total of 41 or higher are 29-9 to the under (76%) over the past two decades. Kansas City's offense has been worse at home by DVOA, and its defense has been significantly better at 5th versus 17th on the road.
But the Chiefs have also been better at scoring early, and Miami's defense ranks 30th by DVOA in the first half. Perhaps that's why Miami first-half overs are 12-5 on the season. Believe it or not, both defenses rank bottom half of the league in the fourth quarter. I like the full-game under too, but I'll duck a possible fast start and play just the second-half under 21.5 in what looks like a slow, turgid wintery game.
Chiefs second-half unders were an unbelievable 15-2 for the season. This was one of the best plays on the board all year.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
Sub-zero temperatures are on tap for Saturday night's Fins-Chiefs game at Arrowhead. Toss in consistent winds in the 10-20 mph range, with gusts up to 35 mph, and wind chills could reach as low as -35, according to the National Weather Service.
To state the obvious, these are conditions that have the potential to ground both passing attacks. But it's not time to reduce this game to a survival competition. Both teams are at an equal disadvantage, no matter what "weather trends" get thrown around.
Yes, the Dolphins have lost 10 straight games when the mercury falls below 40 degrees since 2017. That includes three with McDaniel as the head coach. But when you evaluate these offenses, it's clear that Miami is better suited to execute a run-heavy offense.
The Fins finished 15th in the league in run percentage while Kansas City opted to throw the ball at a much higher clip (27th in run percentage). The Chiefs also excelled in pass defense this season, finishing the year with the highest sack rate in the NFL, while limiting passers to a minuscule 5.4 yards per attempt (3rd).
Opponents found far more success running the football, evidenced by the 4.5 yards per carry the Chiefs allowed (24th). The Chiefs are ranked 18th against the run overall, according to their DVOA figures. That's how you want to attack them and Miami can do just that.
The Dolphins, in a run-heavy game, are well-suited to hold their own defensively (7th in run DVOA). Miami finished seventh against the run, while holding stars like Derrick Henry to just 34 yards on 17 carries. And keep in mind, Miami has already played at Arrowhead this season. They held the Chiefs to 267 total yards.
Now, that was with a full deck, and unfortunately, the Fins are down three quality pass rushers (Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Andrew Van Ginkel). That would surely hurt them in a normal meeting between these two teams, but if both sides ditch the pass, those losses are minimized.
I also trust in Vic Fangio to manufacture pressure as he did last week against Buffalo. He blitzed Mahomes on nearly half of his dropbacks in their first meeting (48.8) and didn't get burned on the backend. His experience matters quite a bit in what should be a low-scoring affair.
As long as you're getting above a field goal, I believe that a same-game parlay with the Fins plus the points and under 44.5 is the best bet on the board.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
By Blake Krass
The Bills are arguably the hottest team in the NFL entering the postseason. They have won five straight games, three of which were against playoff teams, to steal the AFC East from the Dolphins and earn the No. 2 seed. They now match up with the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers who are without their star player, TJ Watt, for this game.
The forecast is calling for there to be severe winds, cold weather and possibly snow for this game in Buffalo. These are conditions built for the Buffalo offense in its current form. Josh Allen and the Bills have been so elite the past few weeks, not by throwing deep to Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but by running the ball and working the short pass game to Dalton Kincaid and James Cook.
The Bills' defense has also improved immensely as the season has gone on. Rudolph has provided a spark for the Steelers' offense but they have not played a very tough schedule of opposing defenses if you take into account that the Ravens were playing mostly backups in Week 18. Buffalo at home in these conditions will be an entirely different beast for Rudolph and he could end up having a really tough day.
Additionally, I wanted to back the Chiefs but over a field goal, I just can’t trust them. Patrick Mahomes has been elite when it comes to winning games as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or less. However, as a favorite over a field goal, he has really struggled ATS. Despite their struggles on offense, their defense has been elite and they should win this game against the Dolphins in brutal weather conditions.
Pick: Chiefs & Bills ML Parlay (-135)
