The NFL preseason gets underway in earnest on Saturday with nine games. The under is 5-0 so far (not including the Hall of Fame Game), and that's a direction our betting analysts are leaning into on Saturday.
Check out our three favorite NFL best bets for Preseason Week 1 below.
NFL Best Bets for Saturday's Preseason Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Preseason Week 1 NFL Best Bets
John LanFranca's Commanders vs. Jets NFL Best Bet: Take the First Half Under
With a price of +105 at multiple books as of Friday night, there's great value on the first half under for the early game on Saturday.
When it comes to some of the key pieces on the Jets offense like Aaron Rodgers and new offensive lineman Tyron Smith, health is the name of the game. Alijah Vera-Tucker and Smith must remain healthy for this unit to improve to a top-10 unit. Head coach Robert Saleh won't be risking any of his key pieces for too long in this one, including backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor, behind an offensive line that lacks depth.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets defense made life difficult for Jayden Daniels in joint practices over the past week. By all accounts, Daniels passed this stiff test, and the hype out of training camp has only grown. Once again, I doubt Daniels is in this game for long behind Brandon Thorn's (Establish the Run) 32nd-ranked offensive line.
Just how much depth does this Jets defense have? Well, as a unit, they surrendered only four total touchdowns in three games combined during the 2023 preseason. I lean under for the game, as well, but this defense didn't allow a single point during the first quarter of the preseason's entirety last year, so I'd rather grab the plus-money on the first half under in this spot.
Pick: 1H Under 16.5 (+105)
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Sam Farley's Seahawks vs. Chargers NFL Best Bet: Seattle to Cover First Half Spread
By Sam Farley
Heading into the Seahawks trip to Los Angeles, we know from new head coach Mike Macdonald that Geno Smith won't play, as well as some other offensive starters but that most of the defensive starters will suit up.
That's big news and means we should see a fairly strong Seahawks team in the first quarter or half, led by Sam Howell, who showed us in Washington that he can play hero ball at times.
Howell isn't afraid of going all-out against a Chargers team missing Justin Herbert, who looked poor on both sides of the ball last season, with a defense who were very susceptible to the long ball. That's something that might take time to fix, even with a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh.
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Nick Parsons' Saints vs. Cardinals NFL Best Bet: Take the Full-Game Under
By Nick Parsons
These teams should do better than they did last year, but here in Week 1 of the preseason, it'll just be the backups and wannabes participating. I have no faith in either team's backup QB's.
The Saints are $99.6 million over the salary cap, so New Orleans is desperately looking for lower-paid fringe players to fill the gaps. It's an important preseason for New Orleans as it looks to fill these holes, but actually winning games is the furthest thing from the Saints' minds right now.
Derek Carr isn't expected to see much or any time for New Orleans under center, meaning that it's wide open for the No. 2 spot still between Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Nathan Peterman.
The Cardinals struggled last year on both sides of the ball, but the offense should be better with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. And that's if QB Kyler Murray can stay healthy. I don't have a lot of faith in backups Desmond Ridder or Clayton Tune either.
Also note that Arizona has 12 rookies to deal with this year, which means that the Cards also have plenty to work on the preseason — and actually winning games at this moment just isn't a top priority.
I think this will be an awkward back-and-forth contest, one that ends well under the posted number once it's all said and done.
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