NFL Best Bets: Conference Championship Picks (Sunday, Jan. 28)
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
By Billy Ward
I’m buying the trends regarding Mahomes as an underdog. Per Evan Abrams, Mahomes is 8-3 straight-up as an underdog in his career and 5-0 in games where he opened as a ‘dog of three or more points.
After opening at three, this line has shifted a full point on DraftKings to four, while most books still have it at 3.5. While it’s not a key number, the extra half-point could be significant here in what looks to be a close game.
Kansas City is peaking at the right time, looking like the vintage version of the team that’s won two of the last five Super Bowls. Thanks to the resurgence of star tight end Travis Kelce and the emergence of running back Isaiah Pacheco as a true workhorse back, they’ve averaged 26.5 points in the playoffs, even in tough weather conditions.
It should be easier going this week, giving them a chance to keep pace in a shootout and cover the spread or win outright. I want to make sure I’m getting all four points on the spread, but I’d bet that down to -120.
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The initial weather reports for this game on Sunday were suggesting rain in the forecast. Now that the current forecast (as of Tuesday) suggests no rain and just cloudy skies in Baltimore, there’s no reason this total should be below 45. Even if the Ravens are quite slow and methodical offensively, they’re going to score points on the Chiefs' defense and they are more explosive overall than Buffalo’s offense on Sunday.
The Texans sent a ton of blitzes at Jackson and while the Ravens struggled to overcome that early, the offense solved that problem and found the quick hitters to torch Houston in the second half. Jackson’s improved play against the blitz this season should give Chiefs defensive coordinator Spagnoulo pause about bringing a ton of pressure.
Jackson has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, compared to 7.8 when not blitzed. His Pro Football Focus grade is 84 against the blitz and his completion rate is 64.9%.
Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread when lined as an underdog in his career and his aura seems to be propping up the Chiefs in this matchup. You can’t throw out the data from the regular season when Kansas City took a clear step back offensively, but betting on a Mahomes offense getting to at least 20 points is something I’m more than willing to trust.
Baltimore goes up early, runs it well and Mahomes has to try to engineer a comeback against the league’s best defense. That’s a recipe for points and why I’m betting the over on Sunday.
I just can't shake the feeling that both defenses and both defensive coordinators have the advantage.
The Chiefs' offense isn't "back" just because it played Miami and Buffalo defenses with half their players in the hospital. The Ravens defense is healthy and another animal altogether — maybe the best defense Mahomes has ever faced in the playoffs.
Mike Macdonald uses creative pass rushes to put opponents under pressure, and Kansas City's interior offensive line is vulnerable with Thuney out. Mahomes has won over 90% of his games when he gets the ball out in under three seconds, but he's a mere mortal — around .500 — when he's over that. This season, the Chiefs' offense ranked just 27th when passing under pressure. Mahomes doesn't have his usual outlets and it's hard to see the Chiefs moving the ball or scoring consistently in this game.
I'm still not sold on Jackson and the passing game in this matchup — see the Chiefs section above. Maybe Baltimore dominates on the ground and finds points that way, but that only chews up the clock, shortens the game and keeps Mahomes on the sidelines, helping an under.
Chiefs games averaged 39.1 points per game this season and went under the posted 44.5 in 13-of-19 games. Ravens games averaged 44.9 points per game, right at the posted total. When Baltimore went over this number, it was almost always because it scored 31+ points. When Kansas City went over this, it's because the Chiefs scored at least 27. I don't see either of those things happening.
Still, Chiefs games have finished with 44 or fewer points in four of Mahomes' 16 playoff games, so I'll duck the full game total and play just the second half. Chiefs unders are 13-6 on the season, but their second-half unders are a ridiculous 17-2. Bettors blindly putting $100 on just Chiefs second-half unders all season would be up $1,373.
The Chiefs are allowing just 5.2 points per game in the second half. The defense has allowed more than a touchdown in only four second halves all season. It's allowed just seven points in two playoff second halves and only 26 points the past seven second halves combined — with four of those against the Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (twice). Of course, Kansas City is only scoring 6.6 points per game in the second half.
Chiefs games are going under the second-half line by 7.7 points per game this season. Keep riding what works in what might turn out to be a defensive battle.
If you're confident the Ravens win, betting Mahomes to throw an interception makes sense at -125. He threw one in 11-of-16 regular season games and he has four interceptions in his three playoff losses, versus just three in the 13 wins.
Pick: Second Half Under 22.5 (-112)
Detroit’s secondary ranks 32nd in explosive pass defense allowed and now has to face the most explosive passing offense in the NFL. That’s the glaring matchup issue for the Lions as they attempt to slow down a San Francisco offense that has been a supernova for the majority of the season.
The biggest question is whether Detroit’s top-ranked rush defense, according to DVOA, can slow down the 49ers' run game and force Brock Purdy to exclusively beat them through the air. The Lions are also fourth in rush EPA allowed, which is considerably better than Green Bay.
Detroit’s pass rush ranked first in pressure rate this season. The pass rush win rate numbers aren’t nearly as dominant for Detroit, but the 49ers' offensive line took a noticeable step back in their numbers this season. Purdy operated well under pressure for most of the year and head coach Kyle Shanahan had enough offensive talent at his disposal to easily overcome this deficiency, but the 49ers were below league average in pressure rate allowed.
A look at the tale of the tape between these teams, using per-drive stats, paints a picture that San Francisco is overvalued because of holes in its defense. The 49ers aren’t generating as much pressure as you’d expect given the talent, and the defense is 28th in rush EPA since Week 9.
Offensive yards per drive: SF 1, DET 5
Defensive yards per drive allowed: SF 18, DET 22
Net yards per drive: SF 2, DET 8
Another note: In-game decision-making by coaches isn’t as valuable of a difference-maker as social media discourse suggests. It does matter at the margins though, and both coaches will coach toward helping the underdog improve their chances to win this game with their in-game decisions.
We’ve seen Shanahan’s extreme conservatism hurt his teams in the past, and his end-of-half sequence against Green Bay nearly cost them the game. Even when he has the superior team, as he will on Sunday, Shanahan will kick field goals and punt in situations where it would be best to go for it.
Compare this to Dan Campbell, whose fourth-down aggression will be critically important toward keeping San Francisco’s dominant offense on the sideline as much as possible. Campbell’s decisions always have a chance of backfiring, but as a touchdown road underdog in the NFC Championship game, his aggression is a given and baked into Detroit’s identity.
Detroit has a top-five run offense and the 49ers' inconsistent rush defense is the Lions' path to shortening the game. The Packers held the Niners to just three first-half possessions and the Lions just finished a game with a 61% success rate on early downs against a very good Tampa Bay run defense. If Detroit can replicate that rushing success, it'll be competitive in this game.
Purdy really struggled in the rainy conditions, but we now have a two full-game playoff sample of him not executing nearly as well as he did in the regular season (Dallas last year and Green Bay this year).
Was it the rain? I’ll pay to find out.
Pick: Lions +7.5 (-115)
By Simon Hunter
Another week of the books making Purdy a seven-point favorite in the playoffs. That's a bold strategy, Cotton — let's see if it pays off for 'em.
Can we for once bet on the feel-good story of the season and have it work out for us? Of course, I’m taking the Lions moneyline. It’s damn near +300. But the fact we can get +7/+7.5 on a team that never stops fighting is the play.
The backdoor will always be open. The Lions are one of the few teams that can do nothing for two quarters and then score a touchdown on four straight possessions.
Ben Johnson and Jared Goff have been in lockstep all season. People are really trying to push the Goff outdoors noise this week. It's supposed to be 60 degrees with no wind on Sunday night. He also went on the road this season outdoors and beat Tampa Bay and Green Bay by double digits. Oh, and the Chiefs in Week 1.
The moment feels like it’s never too big for Goff, who’s already made a Super Bowl run in his career. He’s also a much better quarterback now than he was back then with the Rams.
The 49ers sacked the opposing QB at a rate of 4.2% this season. When Goff faces teams that has a rate of 4% or higher, he is 28-16-1 ATS in his career, including 15-4 ATS as a Lion and 7-1 ATS this season.
The Lions have the offensive weapons to keep this close. I think we see their defense play an all-or-nothing style in an attempt to get Purdy uncomfortable and force him to beat them down the field. We know that’s the Lions' biggest weakness. They’ve struggled all season against the pass, but still went 13-6 ATS.
I have to take this number and throw a little on the moneyline.
Pick: Lions +7.5 (-115)
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The one thing I'm most confident in this weekend is that the 49ers will score.
Everyone agrees this is the best offense and worst defense left playing, but I think folks are missing just how big the gap is. San Francisco's offense has lapped the league when Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are healthy. The 49ers rank first in rushing DVOA and passing DVOA by so much that they should really leave Nos. 2-6 empty to show how far the 49ers are ahead of the field.
The Lions defense played only seven games against an opponent that finished in the top half of the league in DVOA. One of those games was Week 1 against the Chiefs, who were debuting two new tackles and missing Travis Kelce. Another was Week 4 against a young Packers offense that hadn't come together yet. Detroit went 1-4 in the other five games with a single one-point win over the Rams and allowed 29.4 points per game and 416 yards per game.
Detroit's defense has been gashed by top offenses, and lately, gashed by just about anyone who can throw the football. In the last five games alone, the Lions allowed 411 and 396 yards in two Nick Mullens games, 345 to Dak Prescott, 367 to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield. That's 374 yards per game over five games — Brock Purdy is +500 to hit 340 yards at DraftKings, by the way.
Purdy has lost five games as a starter. Three of those came against swarming, nasty Browns, Ravens and Vikings defenses, and another came when he literally lost the ability to throw the ball. The 49ers scored 19 or less in all five losses. In 21 Purdy wins, they average 32.7 points per game and have scored at least 27 all but three times!
That is a remarkable floor for a historically good offense, likely putting us one field goal away from an over — unless the 49ers lose. The Niners have scored 30 or more in 15-of-21 Purdy wins (71%). And remember, Dan Campbell loves to play aggressively and will keep pushing late, which could mean several turnovers on downs and short-field scoring opportunities for San Francisco.
I think the 49ers score at least 30, and I'm compelled to take the Niners' team total escalator.
San Francisco has scored at least 34 in 10 of Purdy's 21 wins. We can play over 33.5 Niners points at +230 at DraftKings. The highest alt I see is over 39.5 at +470. The Lions allowed 37-plus three times this season, and the 49ers scored 42-plus three times, including against the Cowboys and Eagles.
Pick: 49ers Team Total Over 28.5 (-113)
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