NFL Best Bets, Props, Picks for Christmas Day
NFL Week 16 concludes with a Christmas Day tripleheader featuring Ravens vs 49ers, Giants vs Eagles and Raiders vs Chiefs. Our betting staff has delivered holiday goods in the form of NFL Christmas best bets. Check out our NFL best bets, props and picks below.
Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Raiders vs. Chiefs
By Ricky Henne
A bad weather game in the national spotlight just begs for a Travis Kelce prop bet.
While the future Hall of Famer hasn’t had as many explosive plays as we’re used to seeing, he still manages to put up respectable receiving yard numbers most weeks. Personally, the line’s been a bit too high for me to feel comfortable betting most of the time. That’s not the case on Monday, though, as 65.5 receiving yards feels like a favorable number.
Kelce's already exceeded this threshold against Las Vegas, hauling in six passes for 91 yards in Kansas City’s 31-17 Week 12 win over the Raiders. He's eclipsed 65.5 yards in three of his last four games, and four of five he's played this year at Arrowhead Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Raiders defense performs significantly worse outdoors. They’ve given up only 17.6 points per game in 10 indoor games this year, but allowed 26.0 PPG in four games outside. I expect a big day from Kansas City’s offense as I don’t think Las Vegas is up to the challenge of a bad weather, nationally televised Christmas Day game at raucous Arrowhead Stadium.
I’m backing several offensive props as I feel they’re depressed due to the expected forecast, and Kelce’s receiving yards props is my favorite one. I'd play this up to the 66.5 yards most books offer it at.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Kelce is in a great spot to bounce back after a disappointing outing last week. The Chiefs, mainly Patrick Mahomes, have a history of trying to get his tight end involved in the game early following a performance below Kelce's standard of play. It also helps that the Raiders are one of the worst teams in the league at defending tight ends.
In Week 12, when these teams met, Kelce caught 6-of-7 targets for 91 yards. This season the Raiders have allowed the second-highest completion percentage to the position at 78.8%.
Furthermore, they also give up 5.6 receptions per game to tight ends, ranking them 27th on a per-game basis. Expect nine targets, at minimum, for the Chiefs tight end in a highly exploitable matchup.
Play Kelce over 65.5 receiving yards up to 67.5.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Raiders vs. Chiefs
By Sam Farley
You can bet over 6.5 receptions for Rashee Rice at plus money right now – grab it while you can.
Over the last month, the Chiefs have realized what we've all been saying this season: Rice is the best pass-catcher on the team not named Travis Kelce.
In Rice's last four games, he's caught 32-of-38 targets, with seven catches being his lowest amount in a game.
With respect to Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney, they aren't as good as Rice. We've had a month of evidence that shows the Chiefs are going to feed him – follow the numbers and back over 6.5 receptions.
Pick: Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (+102)
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Raiders vs. Chiefs
By Matt Trebby
This is a buy-low spot on Mahomes’ rushing yards, which have bottomed out over the last four weeks.
Mahomes has cleared this total just once in the last four games after going over in nine of the Chiefs’ first 10 games of the season. Sean Koerner has him pegged for 19 rushing yards in this Christmas Day matchup.
I’m betting that there will be positive regression for Mahomes’ rushing yards soon. Kansas City is entering must-win territory for playoff seeding in the AFC, and he tends to run more in big games.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
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Giants vs. Eagles
By Sam Farley
Last week, Darren Waller made his long-awaited return from a hamstring injury he suffered in Week 8. He only managed 40 yards on his comeback but caught 4-of-6 targets.
His receptions line stands at 3.5 against the Eagles, a team that’s allowed 255.4 passing yards per game, the fifth highest in the league.
From Weeks 5-7, we saw Waller haul in 20-of-26 targets. If we see anything like that volume, which last week indicates we will, then he'll easily cover 3.5 receptions.
Pick: Darren Waller Over 3.5 Receptions (-114)
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Giants vs. Eagles
By Ricky Henne
It’s the most wonderful time of the year — the time we get to bet on a Boston Scott anytime TD against the Giants.
Scott turns into Emmitt Smith whenever he plays Big Blue. He has 11 touchdowns in nine career games against them (including the postseason), scoring at least one in every contest.
I’m only sprinkling a tiny amount on it this time, though, since Scott’s so far down on the totem pole. He’s barely gotten any run this year as D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell have stayed healthy. Scott has only 16 carries on the season, and none last week against the Seahawks. Additionally, Jalen Hurts is the Eagles’ primary ball-carrier at the goal line, which limits their running backs’ opportunities to find paydirt.
However, few players own a team like Scott owns the Giants. Nick Sirianni is one of the smartest coaches in the league, and I’m sure he’s aware of the running back’s success, which is why I’m putting a tiny taste on it despite Scott’s lack of usage on the year.
Pick: Boston Scott Anytime Touchdown (+325)
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Ravens vs. 49ers
By Simon Hunter
There is no other way I’d rather end Christmas Day than with a bet on Lamar Jackson as an underdog.
A little secret about me: If it’s not the playoffs and Jackson is getting points, I’m betting him. The Ravens are 19-5 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog since 2018, making them the second-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in that span behind the Steelers. Jackson is 8-5 straight-up and 11-2 ATS as an underdog.
So, we have the trends. Now, to the match up on the field.
The Ravens are the most complete team the 49ers will face this season. Not only does their defense match up well to this 49ers offense, but Baltimore's offense is just as explosive.
Unlike San Francisco, which hasn't been tested in months, the Ravens are used to fighting in close games and having to grind out wins. That’s what this game is going to be: Two of the best teams in the NFL playing in what will feel like a playoff game.
Both teams know winning will just about lock up the No. 1 seed in their respective conference. My hope is the public comes in heavy on the 49ers with all of its Christmas teasers and moneyline parlays.
This number could go even higher than +6.
Pick: Ravens +6.5 (-110)
Ravens vs. 49ers
By Matt Trebby
Sean Koerner has Aiyuk projected for 4.9 receptions, so that’s enough reason to like this prop at a plus number. There are a couple of trends, though, that make me like this even more.
Aiyuk has at least five receptions in four of the five home games he’s played. The one he didn’t get there was the 42-10 blowout win over the Cowboys back in Week 5, when he had four catches on seven targets.
When the Niners play high-quality opposition, Aiyuk tends to go over this number (unless they blow the team out as they did against the Cowboys and Jaguars). Aiyuk has gone over this number against the Eagles, Buccaneers, Vikings, Seahawks, Bengals and Steelers this season, all teams that are competing for a playoff spot.
If you think this is going to be a close game, there’s no reason not to get this over. I’d play it to -120.
