NFL Best Bets, Props, Picks | Saturday Week 15
Week 15 features a Saturday tripleheader, and we have NFL best bets, props and picks for Vikings vs Bengals, Steelers vs Colts and Broncos vs Lions. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vikings vs. Bengals
By Ricky Henne
The Bengals looked like they’d be cooked after Joe Burrow was lost for the year. Instead, they’re very much in the thick of the playoff picture thanks to Browning, who's been fantastic over the last few weeks.
The Bengals put up 34 points in each of their last two games behind big Browning performances. He completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown in an upset win against the Jaguars as 10-point 'dogs. He followed that up by completing 18-of-24 attempts for 275 yards and a pair of TDs against the Colts despite leaving early with muscle cramps.
The Vikings defense has been tremendous lately. They’ve given up the fewest points in the NFL over the last three weeks (11.0), highlighted by last week’s shutout of the Raiders. They’ve also given up only 198.0 passing yards over that span.
I’m not fazed by that, though. The Bengals have shown a willingness to let Browning air it out, and he’s rewarded their faith. In fact, Cincinnati has the fourth-most passing yards since Browning took over. The Bengals' 268.7 yards per game trails only the Jaguars, 49ers and Cowboys.
I'm going to back Browning until he gives me a reason not to. This line varies between 235.5 and 242.5 as of Friday night; I’d take it up to 244.5.
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Vikings vs. Bengals
Last week, the Bengals passed the ball at just a 43.86% clip, but that game is a bit of an outlier compared to their season numbers, even with Browning in the lineup.
Despite last week's game, the Bengals are still passing at the third-highest rate in the league (63.99%). The matchup here is solid for pass volume considering the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league (47.4%). The only quarterback to have fewer than 33 pass attempts vs. the Vikings over the last six games is Aidan O'Connell, who finished with 32 attempts.
The Bengals have shown the ability to game plan well against any defense, and I can all but guarantee that Zac Taylor will be scheming up quick passes all game. I would hit this line all the way to 34.5.
Pick: Jake Browning Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-110)
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Vikings vs. Bengals
Chandler has a great opportunity to showcase his skills on Saturday as he will be the clear lead back for the Vikings.
While his touches are quite bankable, the Vikings' offensive line can't run block. Minnesota is 24th in run block win rate this season, and in total its running backs are averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Last week against the No. 23 rush defense of the Raiders (according to DVOA), Chandler had to handle most of the workload after Alexander Mattison's exit. Chandler finished with 12 carries for 35 yards. In what could potentially could be a negative gamescript, Chandler isn't assured to receive the 15-17 carries he may need eclipse this number.
The Bengals' rush defense has been a weak unit for the majority of the year, but it may be time to start adjusting their outlook. Cincinnati has given up just 90 rushing yards to running backs — mainly Zack Moss and Travis Etienne — on 32 attempts over the last two games. I expect more of the same against an overmatched Vikings offensive line.
Play Chandler under 58.5 rushing yards down to 56.5.
Pick: Ty Chandler Under 58.5 Rushing Yards | Bet down to 56.5
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Steelers vs. Colts
I am loving the opportunity to fade Mitch Trubisky with the spread at less than a field goal on the road on Saturday.
The Steelers are 0-5 against the spread this season on the road and I am in total disagreement with the line movement of this game. Trubisky averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in a loss to the Patriots. Not only was his erratic accuracy on full display, the turnover-worthy throws he made would have made any defense salivate.
Trubisky needs the opposition to play man coverage so he can attack outside the numbers with easy reads and exploitable matchups. The Colts are the most zone-heavy team in football, playing man on fewer than 10% of all dropbacks this season. They should be able to confuse and pressure Trubisky.
The Colts have quietly assembled a strong pass rush. Indy is fifth in pass rush win rate and sixth in adjusted sack rate. For all the talk about the Steelers' defensive line, it's the Colts who have more production getting after the passer.
I will gladly side with the more reliable quarterback playing at home.
Play the Colts -1 up to -2.5.
Pick: Colts -1
Broncos vs. Lions
By Matt Trebby
Over his last seven contests, Gibbs is averaging 12.7. carries and 73.3 rushing yards per game. Since David Montgomery returned from injury, Gibbs is averaging 10.4 carries and 58.6 rushing yards over his last five games.
Gibbs has gone over this total in four of those five games with Montgomery back, including three games with 60 or more rushing yards. On top of that, Gibbs gets an ideal matchup now.
The Broncos enter Week 15 ranked 31st in Rush DVOA, giving up an average of 5.5 yards per rush attempt this season. Gibbs is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the season and 5.8 over his last seven games.
Gibbs hit this over in Week 13 with only eight carries. If he gets 10 carries, as he has in three of the last five games with both him and Montgomery active, he should go soaring past 50.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 50.5 Rushing Yards
Broncos vs. Lions
Sutton has solidified himself as the WR1 in Denver's offense.
He has received solid volume from quarterback Russell Wilson and has hit the over at this number in his last four games. Sutton draws a tougher matchup vs. the Lions, but it's a big upgrade playing inside Detroit's dome.
Games in Detroit have been incredibly high scoring. In six Lions home games, two of them have accounted for 60-plus points, and four of them tallied at least 50.
Factor in that the Broncos will likely be trailing in this spot (forcing them to throw), and this over has some good value. I would hit this line all the way to 60.5 yards.
Broncos vs. Lions
Sutton's receiving yards prop should undoubtedly be higher than the 52.5 it currently sits at some books.
He's earned 41% of Denver's air yards this season, which is more than CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs have for their respective teams. Russell Wilson usually checks the ball down or lets it fly deep when the coverage is clear and he has Sutton singled up.
Sutton's longest reception prop of 21.5 is also worth a look, as he has eclipsed that in eight consecutive games. I will opt for the receiving yards because I am expecting both teams to go up and down the field in this game.
The Lions are surrendering 160 yards receiving to opposing wide receivers on the year, which ranks 21st in the league. The average completion to a WR against Detroit is 13.8 yards, ranking them 25th in that category.
It's clear who the alpha receiver is for Denver as Sutton has cemented himself and gained the trust of Wilson over Jerry Jeudy. Furthermore, the last time the Lions limited an opposing team's top receiver to under 65 yards was in Week 8. Keenan Allen carved them up for 175 yards, Christian Watson had 94, Chris Olave had 119, and D.J. Moore had 96 and 68 in two meetings.
Play Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards up to 56.5.
